Ed Brayton is a journalist, commentator and speaker. He is the co-founder and president of 
Daniel Larison at The American Conservative correctly surmises that Palin's popularity is limited to a certain demographic:
Her unfavorables among non-Republicans have gone up steadily since the Republican convention in 2008, and outside of a dedicated core of admirers and a few critics no one is taking her political chances seriously. This is the same as it has been for a very long time. As Josh Green notes, it would normally be absurd to think that someone with a 14-point favorability deficit was a serious presidential contender, and there aren't that many non-partisans who think that she is anything of the kind. The reality is that the more independents and Democrats see of Palin, the less they like. In a country where these people make up at least 65% of the electorate, Palin is essentially unelectable in a general election.
And also correctly says that if the GOP does nominate Palin, they will be in for a butt kicking of historic proportions:
The question to which we don't know the answer yet is whether the GOP is so willfully blind to this reality and so bent on self-destruction in 2012 that the party nominates her anyway. For all of the reasons I have given before, I very much doubt that Republicans are this foolish. It is possible that the GOP will decide to immolate itself as part of an elaborate reality TV experiment, but they have every incentive not to want to do that.We have good reason to expect that the 2012 Republican field will be large and support will once again be fairly evenly divided. This might give Palin a better chance than she would have otherwise, but many of her likely rivals are going to be going after the same voters who view Palin favorably. For that matter, she is not favorably viewed by all Republicans. That leaves a huge opening for a more credible, electable candidate to pull together some fraction of conservatives together with the primary anti-Palin vote. As it is, she has just 66% favorability with self-identified Tea Party supporters, and she is supposed to be one of their political heroes. If she can't even consolidate all of the Tea Party's approximately 18% of the vote, why does anyone think she can win at least a third of the vote in primaries that she will need to get the nomination?
If she did somehow pull it off, Democrats would spend most of the summer and fall of 2012 rubbing their eyes in disbelief at their good fortune. Even in a fairly polarized national electorate where McCain/Palin could manage to get 47% of the vote in the midst of a financial meltdown at the tail end of the second term of one of the three most unpopular postwar Presidents, a ticket headed by Palin would be hard-pressed to break 40%. Palin as the nominee would probably make 2012 the most lopsided election victory for the incumbent President since 1984.
Heads and nails.
Politics
Comments
I think that just such an election debacle is what the GOP needs to regain some sanity. Any gains in the mid-term elections (which seem likely)are going to put the party on the Tea Party Express and in that situation I can't see them not nominating Palin or someone like her.
Posted by: Ericb | July 12, 2010 9:28 AM
I wonder if Bill Kristol agrees with this assessment or will he push his disaster forward in 2012 by supporting her candidacy? In for a penny, in for a pound.
Kicking Palin to the curb appears to be good conventional wisdom. But with the million she's got banked to support her picks in 2010 (according to FEC), she may have a lot of pols beholden to her enough to push her forward in 2012 though.
Posted by: MikeMa | July 12, 2010 9:31 AM
Does it not make for kind of GOP meltdown/train wreck if she runs or if she's dumped? Palin comes across as delusionsal and egotistical, her reason for retiring was to come to the rescue of the US or some such nonsense wasn't it? This seems to me like someone who does want another go in the presidential election. If she runs it will be hilarious but if she is rejected/ousted she won't take it lying down and would this not lead to soem backlash form her? Fox also hitched their wagon to her although O'Reilly seems to be regretting it.
Posted by: Naughtius Maximus | July 12, 2010 9:37 AM
Members following groups need to sign up ASAP for the Elect Palin In 2012 Committee:
1.) Democrats
2.) Voters that love their country
3.) Comedy fans of all types
4.) Fans of Fantastik train wrecks
This could be epicly funny! A once in a lifetime tell your grandkids type of funny.
Palin is such an idiot.
Posted by: J-Dog | July 12, 2010 9:39 AM
Posted by: Herod the Freemason | July 12, 2010 9:46 AM
> Unless she actually wins
And this is the real problem. Elections are less often won by the victor than they are lost by the loser. All it takes is one "I thought the microphone was off" gaff by Obama the day before the election and someone's dog could get in.
Posted by: David Durant | July 12, 2010 10:04 AM
Stop giving away our secrets!! I want them to think Palin would be unbeatable!
.......................
Actually, I'm absolutely certain that Palin knows she can keep this multi-million dollar gravy train running only if she keeps dancing in the shadows. She can make money in a thousand little regional venues, but she can't let the NATIONAL spotlight fall on her, ever again.
It took ONE interview with Katie Couric to wreck her chances on the McCain ticket. And that wasn't even a hostile environment -- it was about as friendly and low-key as it gets.
Another such interview, and she absolutely will not be able to avoid them, and she's done.
Plus, she's already shown she's not interested in government offices. She quit the one she had.
Seriously, Palin is a CELEBRITY, not a politician. She's in it for the money and fame. Not for the chore of governing.
Even if they try to draft her, she won't go for it. She might dance on the edge of it for a while, but it will be for publicity alone, and for no other reason.
If I were her publicist (well, I'd kill myself, but that's just me) I'd advise her to have a book or some big splashy and very lucrative event planned for 2012, to take advantage of the ramp-up to the election.
Hmm, come to think of it, just a speaking tour at that time could make her millions.
Ah, here it is: The GOP won't draft her, but they WILL pay her several million to tour around stirring up the deadheads.
Posted by: Hank Fox | July 12, 2010 10:08 AM
David Durant,
Even more to your point, Palin has already said some of the most stupid things imaginable. Over and over. And they still love her so she likely gets a free ride on that open mike scenario while Obama still has to be careful. Also Obama has enough presence to recognize a mistake while Palin is mostly oblivious.
Posted by: MikeMa | July 12, 2010 10:10 AM
I think even Sarah Palin realizes she couldn't get nominated to run for president in 2012 as the GOP candidate. She can't expose herself more to the public and media or else her unfavorables will increase even more and make it even more evidence how unqualified she is. I also don't believe we're at the point a candidate can win nomination while avoiding the mainstream media as Palin does, though that day might come sooner than we'd wish.
The more parsimonious explanation for her current maneuvering is that she's angling to get picked as the VP nominee again without having to go through much primary campaigning and debates, if any. From this perspective SARAHPAC is key in terms of raising money from the base and framing the primaries where her favor must be won for her in turn to bless the candidate on behalf of the base. Mormon, slickster, flip-flopper, faux-populist Mitt Romney might be particularly vulnerable to Palin's potential leverage.
Therefore her best chance to become president is through the Vice Presidency, either like LBJ or H.W. Bush. That opportunity still exists which continues to make her the most dangerous person I've ever encountered. So I continue to fear her, the only person I've ever feared.
Posted by: Michael Heath | July 12, 2010 10:12 AM
Hank Fox,
As a long time Grateful Dead fan, I resent the application of the term deadhead to the moronic imbeciles that support Palin. It is descriptive though:)
Posted by: MikeMa | July 12, 2010 10:13 AM
Hank @ #7:
Don't be throwing the term "deadheads" around lightly. I looked for some black acid to drop for a week after Jerry Garcia died.
Posted by: Coragyps | July 12, 2010 10:17 AM
You laugh, but you better watch out. Mama grizzlies are risin' up, cuz mom's just kinda know, when suh'um is wrong.
Posted by: Dr X | July 12, 2010 10:22 AM
Re Michael Heath @ #9
Mr. Michael Heath has been reading Andrew Sullivan who seems absolutely to be in abject terror that Ms. Palin might get elected.
Posted by: SLC | July 12, 2010 10:32 AM
If she did somehow pull it off, Democrats would spend most of the summer and fall of 2012 rubbing their eyes in disbelief at their good fortune.
Never underestimate the Democrats' uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Posted by: Chiroptera | July 12, 2010 10:42 AM
SLC @ 13:
You seem to be insinuating that I'm capable of being mindlessly or at least easily led and couldn't possibly formulate such a conclusion independent of what Mr. Sullivan concludes. From my perspective this is a pretty weasly observation.
From my perspective Mr. Sullivan was late arriving at this conclusion relative to myself, who derived my position within a few days of her being announced as the VP candidate.
Posted by: Michael Heath | July 12, 2010 10:48 AM
I still don't think Palin wants to run. IMO, she'd much rather stand on the sidelines, continuing to make money and fancying herself as a would-be GOP kingmaker.
Plus, Sarah's political work ethic sucks. She loves the job's exposure and travel perks, but seems to despise its far less glamorous duties that often makes politics a tedious daily grind.
I still think Mittens Romney is the GOP's nominee for 2012 barring a personal scandal, or huge gaffe on the national stage. He'll come in proclaiming to be a fiscal messiah who'll rescue America from its deficit woes, and if elected, will do positively dick to address them.
Posted by: CHV | July 12, 2010 11:15 AM
Hank Fox @ 7:
>>>It took ONE interview with Katie Couric to wreck her chances on the McCain ticket. And that wasn't even a hostile environment -- it was about as friendly and low-key as it gets. Another such interview, and she absolutely will not be able to avoid them, and she's done.
Agreed. Can you picture Palin in an interview with someone like Rachel Maddow? She'd be destroyed, and not because Maddow would be playing "gotcha" either. All she'd have to do is ask Palin simple, adult-level questions about national and global affairs, and her eyes would immediately start flitting about the room in search of a cue card held by Karl Rove.
>>>Ah, here it is: The GOP won't draft her, but they WILL pay her several million to tour around stirring up the deadheads.
Also agreed. Palin excels at throwing the GOP base red meat. However, as she's seriously gaffe-prone, if Palin embarrasses herself on the campaign trail (which is likely) she could easily go from star cheerleader to excruciating liability overnight.
She's also not good at taking orders from the GOP's powers-that-be.
Remember? She's a "maverick."
Posted by: CHV | July 12, 2010 11:25 AM
O'Reilly interviews Palin on immigration.
He leads the horse to the water; he shoves the horse's head into the water; he splashes water into the horse's mouth; he pleads with the horse, Drink dammit, drink But the horse can't or won't drink.
Actually, I don't think the horse is quite as stupid as some think. The horse knows that her supporters only want to hear inflammatory generalities that would crumble under close scrutiny. They don't want cogent thought. They want xenophobic demagoguery.
Posted by: Dr X | July 12, 2010 11:27 AM
I'm not sure it would really make a difference. She's an idiot...but her handlers and the party leaders (both parties...or are there really even two parties) would ensure that the wars continue, the military budgets expand, the tax breaks for the wealthy and connected corporations grow, and the flow of capital offshore accelerates. during the terminal phases of a senescent, bankrupt empire, it doesn't really matter who occupies the throne at the moment.
Posted by: Brian M | July 12, 2010 11:29 AM
Dr X @ 18:
Saw that Palin-Immigration clip you linked to. My God, is she stupid.
For one thing, a border fence running from San Diego to Texas is a red herring that would require a small (and expensive) army to patrol day and night. Further, does anyone truly believe that illegals look at such barriers, shrug their shoulders, then go home?
Finally, Palin's belief that illegals now in-country would happily register with the government (were she POTUS) is beyond obtuse. They would just go underground deeper, and cost untold millions to find and deport - millions the GOP now claims cannot be parted with on (for example) needless programs that help keep families out of homeless shelters like unemployment insurance.
Every time I think Sarah Palin cannot possibly look any dumber she always proves me wrong.
Posted by: CHV | July 12, 2010 11:46 AM
I agree with Hank Fox: Palin is too lazy to be President. She strikes me as the Eternal Highschool Cheerleader: she wants to get by on her good looks and charm while posing and cheering from the sidelines. All that leading and presidenting is a bunch of hard work, especially when she could just stand in front of a microphone spouting folksy and faux-populist rhetoric, and rake in the big bucks from adoring wingnuts.
Posted by: sinned34 | July 12, 2010 11:55 AM
Are you kidding? That bulldog Couric asked her what newspaper she reads!!! For shame! I mean, she might as well ask her when the last time she beat her husband was. The question presupposes that Palin reads newspapers, and as all Real Americans know, newspapers are only for commies and New York Times subscribers anymore. Real Americans only watch Fox News, and their only use for newspapers is lighting their barbecues.
No, that Couric interview was about as hostile as it comes. Couric, in a display of shameless liberal media bias, tried to get Palin to intellectually engage on a level that would be reasonable for a high school sophomore. That's dirty pool, and exactly what you would expect from an elitist socialist pinko like Couric.
An unbiased interview would have focused on straight issue questions, like: Can you list all the things an Alaska hockey mom has in common with lower-48 soccer moms? Why do socialist elitists insist on saying that Joe Six-Pack knows any less about economic policy than world-class economists? Was Obama born in eastern or western Kenya?
Was the Couric interview hostile? You betcha!
/end sarcasm
Posted by: James Sweet | July 12, 2010 12:25 PM
I dunno; I find Palin's actual motivations fairly opaque (sure, she's lazy as hell--but maybe she's deluded enough to think that she wouldn't have to work so hard as President?).
More to the point, I'm not nearly as convinced as most here are that she's incapable of winning the GOP nomination. If she runs, I don't see who can beat her, or how. That party's primary electorate is not exactly bursting at the seams with mature, thoughtful folks right now.
Posted by: Rieux | July 12, 2010 1:12 PM
Here's a post from Andrew Sullivans' blog that was not written by him but one of his interns. There seems to be some indications that Ms. Palin is seriously considering a run for the Rethuglican presidential nomination.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2010/07/palin-lays-the-foundation-for-12.html
It should also be noted that Bill Kristol is not the only neocon who is saying nice things about Ms. Palin. So are Charles Krauthammer and Norman Podhoretz. IMHO, the neocons, absent David Frum, see Ms. Palin as an empty vessel to be filled by their ideas, which may be summed up as bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.
Posted by: SLC | July 12, 2010 1:19 PM
I'd vote for her in cartoon land for the cartoon presidency. Every time I see her it's like watching a cartoon. The most amazing cartoon performance I've ever seen!
Posted by: 386sx | July 12, 2010 1:21 PM
Rieux, a lot of people would love to see her GET that nomination. Just the tip of the tail, if it was Palin, could wag the entire dog. She would suck the oxygen out of the party from day one, and no other candidate could breathe.
Her star power would force every other candidate to embrace the nuttiest, most extreme platform, or face an epic shitstorm from their own core voters. Not one reasonable idea would come out of the party throughout the entire election cycle.
Posted by: Hank Fox | July 12, 2010 1:23 PM
The question of Palin actually running for President? I think you misunderestimate the situation a bit, I think it would be a battle for the ages!*
I mean c'mon, her ego against her greed?
Vegas wouldn't even try to lay odds on that one.
----------
*you didn't think I meant the actual election, did you? ;o)
Posted by: dogmeat | July 12, 2010 1:41 PM
Actually, from the perspective of the Democrats, it would be marvellous to face Palin.
Instead of explaining to their voter base why they have made a mess of their promises and compromised away their moral high ground, they will face an election campaign not unlike the one between Lyndon Johnson and Barry Goldwater; the reasonably sane one vs. the big nut job.
(J-Dog @ 4: I agree with you)
However it is unrealistic that the old boys in the GOP back rooms would let it go that far. If they recognise the danger ahead, there will be damaging leaks to the press just as Palin is getting started with the primaries. Republicans can be as nasty to each other as they are to everyone else.
Posted by: Birger Johansson | July 12, 2010 3:03 PM
I watched that Palin Grizzly bear video and I loved her comment about watching out for the pink elephants.
Guzzle down another one Sarah I need a good laugh.
Posted by: Paen | July 12, 2010 4:13 PM
The Grauniad has a lead article, Sarah Palin's war chest points to 2012 presidential bid:
Ellis may have a point there. Provided she sticks to a script written by someone else, she might be able leverage an anti-Washington/insider backlash. Guessing, the teabaggers would have to be kept under control (or have imploded by then), as they'd promptly repel anyone who isn't a nutter, and she'd need a lot more than the nutters for a serious tilt at being elected.
Posted by: blf | July 12, 2010 4:20 PM
Palin versus Newt?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100712/ap_on_el_pr/us_gingrich2012
Posted by: Naughtius Maximus | July 12, 2010 4:50 PM
I'd love to see Palin run, but what makes anyone think she's interested in it? She's got a great gig now...lots of money and no actual expertise, ability, or work is needed. There's no way she'd want the work schedule, responsibility, and exposure to criticism that comes with being president.
Posted by: Eric R | July 12, 2010 6:56 PM
@28 wrote: "However it is unrealistic that the old boys in the GOP back rooms would let it go that far."
The old boys might actually encourage a Palin nomination, figuring they could get her installed as a figurehead while they called all the shots. Isn't that what they did with George W?
I wish everyone would stop paying Sarah Q Palin so much attention. While we might laugh about the prospect of her actually winning the nomination, even the off chance of her winning the election is too ... too ... I can't even think of a word for how bad it would be.
Posted by: Gerry L | July 12, 2010 11:00 PM
Gozer: Sub-creatures! Gozer the Gozerian, Gozer the Destructor, Volguus Zildrohar- the Traveller has come! Choose and perish!
Dr. Raymond Stantz: What do you mean, choose? We don't understand!
Gozer: Choose! Choose the form of the Destructor!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Oh, I get it. Real cute! [to the others] Whatever we think of– if we think of J. Edgar Hoover, J. Edgar Hoover will appear and destroy us, OK? So empty your heads, don't think of anything. We've only got one shot at this.
Gozer: The choice is made!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Whoa! Hold on!
Gozer: The Traveller has come!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Nobody chose anything! [turns to Egon] Did you choose anything?
Dr. Egon Spengler: No.
Dr. Peter Venkman: [to Winston] Did you?
Winston Zeddemore: My mind is totally blank.
Dr. Peter Venkman: I didn't choose anything.
All three: [turn to look at Ray] Ray?
Dr. Raymond Stantz: I couldn't help it. It just popped in there.
Dr. Peter Venkman: [sternly] What? What "just popped in there?"
Dr. Raymond Stantz: I--I--I tried to think...
Dr. Egon Spengler: Look!
[They all look over one side of the roof.]
Dr. Raymond Stantz: No! It can't be!
Dr. Peter Venkman: What is it?
Dr. Raymond Stantz: It can't be!
Dr. Peter Venkman: What did you do, Ray?!
Winston Zeddemore: Oh, shit!
Dr. Raymond Stantz: I tried to think of the most harmless thing... something that would never ever possibly destroy us: an Alaskan MILF.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Nice thinking, Ray.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Ray has gone bye-bye, Egon. What have you got left?
Dr. Egon Spengler: Sorry, Venkman. I'm terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought.
Posted by: GravityIsJustATheroy | July 13, 2010 7:23 AM
GravityIsJustATheroy, that movie is riddled with great quotes. Mine all involve Louis Tully, of which the following is also vaguely on-topic:
Dr. Egon Spengler: "Vinz, you said before you were waiting for a sign. What sign are you waiting for?"
Louis: "Gozer the Traveler. He will come in one of the pre-chosen forms. During the rectification of the Vuldrini, the traveler came as a large and moving Torg! Then, during the third reconciliation of the last of the McKetrick supplicants, they chose a new form for him: that of a giant Slor! Many Shuvs and Zuuls knew what it was to be roasted in the depths of the Slor that day, I can tell you!"
Posted by: Modusoperandi | July 13, 2010 8:03 AM