It seems the dam has broken in Thailand as far as talking about possible bird flu. For nine months the Thais have been saying their aggressive culling strategy has been working to keep H5N1 at bay. We and others have wondered if the virus was just flying beneath the Thai radar, despite official denials. Even this month, as reports were increasing of poultry deaths and suspect human cases agriculture officials were saying, "no problem." Then the virus was confirmed to be in chickens and shortly thereafter the first confirmed death since last December was acknowledged, a 17 year old Thai boy who had contact with sick fighting cocks and simulataneously had Dengue fever.
In quick succession more suspect human cases, including 11 in Phichit province yesterday, ages 4 to 14, the prime age for bird flu were reported. They were scattered in five different hospitals. Most or all had contact with dead poultry or lived in areas where there were poultry deaths of unknown cause. New provinces were then declared high surveillance zones for the disease in birds and still more patients admitted to hospitals. By today the Public Health Ministry said 44 cases were on the suspect list nationwide. All are awaiting laboratory results (Bangkok Post)
This is not the first time suspect cases have appeared recently. Earlier ones were said to be negative by laboratory test and it is certainly plausible other diseases, like dengue fever, were the real cause of the illnesses. But it is also plausible they were false negatives and bird flu has been in Thailand continuously since the last reported outbreak in December and this is not a new outbreak.
In fact I'd be willing to bet on it.
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The drums of war are beating. It's just that they are faint or appear silent when the wind is blowing the wrong way.
We are walking down a path that is well worn and we will eventually reach the same destination as in the past.
I happen to believe we are nearer then others...I fail to hear sound scientific arguments from those as a basis for their optimism.
If we get off the vaccine, anti-viral bandwagon and concentrate limited resources on masks and other tools to lesssen the chance of environmental contacts and on broad-spectrum antibiotics, oral electrolyte powders, anti-fever drugs and prednisolone, we will limit loss of life from secondary bacterial pneumonias, dehydration and other completely preventable causes...and in effect live with and beat this virus.
The dilemma that seems to be at the crux of government behavior is this:
If you tell the public that the pandemic is imminent, possibly already in its early stages, admit there is no really good proven vaccine and there wouldn't be enough for the vast majority of them even if/when we get one, and that the only way to avoid getting sick with a flu whose lethality is above 50% is to isolate yourself from human contact before it hits, you are going to set off a panic in which people stop going to work, hoard food & supplies, and isolate themselves and their families. This might save many from getting the flu, but at the same time it would cause an economic collapse that could prove as deadly as the flu itself.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't; so they hope for the best and lie about the rest in order to keep people working as usual because that is the one side of the disaster coin they can control, whereas they can't seem to control the spread of the flu itself. If I were in charge, facing this particular question, I wouldn't be any Solomon either.
I think all we can do as individuals is keep ourselves and our loved ones alert and informed, do our own predicting of when to run and hide, and hope we get it right.
Mary in hawaii: Even without worst case scenario, I believe there will be an economic collapse that will prove as deadly as the flu itself. Many people in this nation are at or just above poverty level, minimum wage earners who are barely keeping their heads above water. There is no extra money to stock up on food and water, much less masks, gloves, ect. for months(?) and nowhere to store it if they did. How would would they be able to keep a roof over their heads if they were unable to work? How many Americans are living day to day with medical conditions that require daily medications to survive, medications that probably will not be available in the event of a pandemic? I am myself an insulin dependent diabetic, and while that may be purchased ahead of time, in the event of loss of power it wouldn't be worth the bottle it came in. Just one condition in thousands that will lead to death in no time at all, without exposure to avian flu. I just don't see that a lot of pharmacies will be open for business at a time like that, especially when I am reading that hospitals will be short of life saving drugs. I also fear a social breakdown that will lead to more death and destruction. All of this, and more, will have an impact on our economy. And I wonder if these non avian flu deaths will be counted in the aftermath as part of the pandemic total, when in fact they will be pandemic related? I keep informed daily and believe the truth is a lot worse than what we are reading. But I don't see any safe place to run and hide.
Revere: I too would be willing to bet on it.
Judy's comments are correct and apply to a first world country. Reread the post but think Zimbabwe, Dafur, Gaza etc. Vast tracts of the globe rely on aid, grants, loans or subsidies, how long will they continue to flow if there is economic disruption in the G8 economies? I would not like to live in any city, or country, that had a wide divide between the haves and have nots. In which I include the US which has both polarised wealth and high gun ownership. Good luck to you and may your chickens not come home to roost.