Readers here who try to get their neighbors to prep and run into a stone wall aren't alone.
It's tough to convince people they need to be prepared for disasters. It's even harder when they don't believe that the scenario you envision will ever happen.Nevertheless, local governments in Hall County and throughout Georgia are putting together plans for dealing with an influenza pandemic.
They don't have a choice. (Gainesville Times)
This Gainesville is the one in Georgia, not Florida, and they have no choice because Georgia's Governor, one Sonny Perdue, told them they had to. Governor Perdue is no pearl of great value in my book, but he's right to make his government get ready. Too bad more governor's don't give their health departments "no choice." One wonders what the health department would do if they had a choice. But they don't. Even so, they are not finding it easy:
[Hall County's] committee has been meeting since October. Cheryl Vandiver, spokeswoman for the American Red Cross in Gainesville, said the first step in any plan is to educate the public.
"We've been offering pandemic preparation classes in each of the (Northeast Georgia) counties," she said.
Initially, they trained potential leaders, such as school nurses and hospital officials.
"The two-hour course tells them what to expect and how to convince the public that this is something that needs to be taken seriously," Vandiver said.
"We've trained about 275 people how to go out and teach this course themselves, and each got a packet of materials, including a DVD."
A few weeks ago, the Red Cross started offering the classes to the general public.
"We've been giving presentations to all kinds of groups," she said. "We encounter a lot of skepticism. I can understand that.
"I was skeptical too when I first heard about this. But when you watch the video, it opens your eyes."
Some of the skepticism comes from a perception that pandemic fears are like other threats that never materialized, and the most frequently mentioned is Y2K. As so many have already observed, however, you can also view Y2K as a tremendous success. It was easy to plan for, we knew exactly what to do, and millions of hours were spent making sure something bad didn't happen. We know what even a little bit of bad code can do and there was more than a little bit of bad code in all those COBOL programs. But we knew just what to look for and where to look for it, so nothing much happened, thanks to several years worth of prepping. Unfortunately that isn't the perception. The old public health saw that when public health works, nothing happens, is applicable. If there is a pandemic quite a lot will happen (because so many other things won't happen). Unlike Y2K we can't stop it. But we can do a lot to mitigate the consequences.
Prepping for a pandemic is a lot harder than prepping for a hurricane or Y2K. It will happen everywhere, so there is no "outside" to get help from. It will last a lot longer. We don't know how bad it will be, when it will be, or even if it will be. But there is one advantage to proper community prepping for a pandemic: it will never be wasted, even if a pandemic doesn't happen or wouldn't have happened. The best preparation for a community is to strengthen the infrastructures upon which it depends for resilience: social and public health infrastructures and community ties and organizations. Neighbors will have to look after neighbors, friends after friends and each family unit might have to become its own hospital.
The worst case picture is of widespread absenteeism, overflowing hospitals and intermittent or no critical services. More likely, even in a serious pandemic, will be rolling outages and not everyone sick at once. Hurricane Katrina in slow motion. The more robust our community services the more likely we will be to get through it with the least pain and suffering. Those community resources are good for many things -- not just catastrophes like hurricanes and pandemics. They make for stronger, more confident, more vibrant communities in general. It's a win-win.
They are worth the investment, like keeping the roof in good repair even though there is no torrential rain. And if a pandemic does develop, It's a Hard Rain's Gonna Fall. That's for sure.
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Dear Reveres,
I've been posting on the pandemicflu.gov blog - or at least attempted to. My most recent post, which was highly critical of the work being done by the Asst Secretary for Public Affairs, never showed up. I find it absolutely amazing that the federal goverment is looking to local communities for LEADERSHIP when all they have to do is use the President's bully pulpit and get on national TV. One phone call oughta do it. I just can't see the stations denying the President airtime.
If the local communities had the White House beating down the bushes (oops - sorry) ahead of us, I bet the states and local contingents would be making more progress in getting people to believe that a pandemic is coming. Whether it's H5N1 or something else is immaterial. Long-term pandemic prepping is prepping, whatever the bug. Improvements in the public health care system would benefit everyone, even if a pandemic NEVER showed up.
I've also asked if each of the Department heads had ordered that all their employees be clearly advised to prep and I got no response. I suppose they think that everyone on the planet is going to call up pandemicflu.gov and magically "get the message." Michael Leavitt's intro blog states that in 2005, the President "mobilized the country..." If that's true, why, after two years, is the car still idling in the driveway?
It's a good thing that President Roosevelt didn't "mobilize" the US after Pearl Harbor the same way.
Galen: Interesting. I've been occupied with personal matters and not following what's going on over there. I'll query Dem about it.
I'm curious as to what you would consider essential household items and general knowledge for preparedness on a family level. What should be in the first AID kit? Would/will self quarantine work? Are there any items that most people DON'T have in the usual kits that would be very beneficial?
Linzel: I have always avoided dealing with personal prepping here. Flu Wiki, Flu Trackers, CurEvents, etc., do a good job of that and I'll refer you there. Our interest is on community prepping and public health preparedness.
Interesting post. I would add that swine flu is also in people's memory--and if we get to the point where we are vaccinating before a pandemic is completely and totally obvious, the swine flu is all you are going to hear about. Y2K is also part of it.
Quoting Revere: "The worst case picture is of widespread absenteeism, overflowing hospitals and intermittent or no critical services. More likely, even in a serious pandemic, will be rolling outages and not everyone sick at once. Hurricane Katrina in slow motion. The more robust our community services the more likely we will be to get through it with the least pain and suffering."
You are an optimist IMO, I'd say that's the best case. I worry most about water, fuel, food, and electricity, in that order. What is needed is a backup plan to keep people going despite what could be a total lack of supplies. If every family kept a basic set of emergency supplies, it would be so much easier to cope with pandemics or other disasters. I have say Katrina is what jolted me into preparing, I just got complacent about things as I'm sure most people are.
I just can't imagine what would happen if we do get a pandemic, I hope things turn out as you see it.
stu: Whether I am an optimist or a realist only time will tell. I am not so worried about water. We use very little of it for hygienic purposes (less than 5% of supplied water). The big infrastructure issue is power. If you have power the water will run and even if not clean, you can boil it, but without energy too many other things go down. So the grid is the key, IMO. But we're all guessing and it makes sense to plan for the worst, although some scenarios are so massive that it actually inhibits people from planning. They give up. So I am not of the opinion that continuously harping on worst cases is the best strategy, especially if you don't believe they are likely (which is my view). I realize many who come here don't agree.
Revere has this one down to the nitnoys. If the grid fails then chaos and likely anarchy would ensue. Mind that this is and will be a states event unless they totally toss in the towel and that towel might not come out in the first round but by the middle of the second there will be a real call to stop the fight.
Stu-Once upon a time in my miltary career I was told by a Lt. Colonel who went on to become a general and then finally a Lt. General that in a military situation you should prepare for the absolute worst you can comprehend with what you have available to you up to the time of engagement. All the while with the time in front of you til game day you prepare, mitigate and try to anticipate what could happen. Supply in any war is the single largest issue. We have historically blown thru the supply scenario by a factor of 1/2 above estimates. This is what you should be thinking about. Supply. You can stay warm and fed if you pre-plan and have a back up plan. Even if they were able, people in the NE out foraging in some crap sucking cold of say 32 degrees for a week would put the pink slip in for thousands. Sitting on supplies prevents that scenario and all you have to do then is worry about the cold in general rather than being out in some food line waiting.
Some in the Bush Administration have been soft pedaling this 5% stuff for about three years and all in the face of an official 60%, but unofficial 83% rolling year average CFR. That mindset has been changing. We are far better off now than we were a year ago, next year will be even better if it holds off, three years will change a lot. But without vaccine it wont change the outcomes too terribly much.
But will it be enough? Stu, probably not. Without at least a minimally effective vaccine to keep you alive, the numbers could be staggering. I am talking about B52 strike over Iraqi formations with BLU96's. For a mental concept picture they got 62,000 Iraqi's in Desert Storm in under four days. This could do it in a day in either sick, dying or dead.
To prep or not is the question? All things when in upheaval continue until a state of equilibrium is reached. Think of this as dropping a rock into a rocky pool of water and watching the waves bounce off in all directions. Some will have a cataclysmic wave effect, some will be more protected than others. Some totally. I can say that without a doubt the ability of the government to respond in the initial part of a pandemic will be good right up until some key event starts things into motion like a bowling ball rollling to the bottom of the hill. You might slow or stop it in the first couple of ten feet, after that you stand in the way of it and it will knock you over.
I freely distribute a list that the local DHS director and I tooled up over a year ago and we are now on its fifth iteration. While, it is specific to the central US and its for anyone who sends me a request at memphisservices@bellsouth.net. It makes no political statements and uses hurricane Rita as a what if, what did happen and the fact that one day the New Madrid Earthquake Zone is going to rumble. Hurricane Rita shut the power off on most of the Gulf Coast for weeks. Supplies and support were flowing in for them to recover, but if this comes there wont be anything but palliative support and supplies. There is a 40 day supply of food on this planet and its already unevenly distributed. This is under normal consumptive practices. Think about just the US when suddenly they tell us all that its here and the heads of households for 300 million head to the Safeway, Krogers, etc for a four month supply of food and water. The shelves would empty in a day, probably less. There would be a short lived stream of food in the queue of things, then it would stop and possibly not restart for quite some time.
IMO it is coming or something like it. If it werent then you would see fewer, fewer and then no cases. Just the opposite is happening and definitely with two distinctly different strains. Also you are seeing intergovernmental pissing contests about isolates, samples and vaccines. All of this is from a world body that is supposed to "cooperate" with each other. It goes against its incepted ideals, and the rhetoric is very, very mean spirited and guaranteed to create animosity which is ratcheting things up to a higher level. They wouldnt be in each others faces unless their experts are telling them that this is the real deal. Is it coming? I think they know it is.
Want that list? Just drop me the email. I dont retain it or spammit off to anyone. Its deleted unless you want me to keep it.
MRK, I'm with you on the grocery store cleanout. I saw that with a 24" North Carolina snow fall, transportation was shut down for about 4-5 days and the stores were pretty much empty of essentials.
BTW I'm good to go, I have a freeze dried food, gas, LP, kero, water purifiers and storage tanks, battery backup with generators and solar panels, ammo, etc. I think we'll be OK, but no clues about the rest of my neighborhood. I don't talk about this to anyone IRL, it's not prudent for a number of reasons.
Glad you've got your ammo, Stu. Just be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot unwrapping a box of Slim Jims.
So Revere(s), are you personally prepping for your household? A yes or no will suffice.
ranger sue: No.
Perhaps the level of obesity in this country isn't such a bad thing after all.
I weigh less than I used to, but I'm still packing about two and a half months of preps with me everywhere I go.....
Revere,
"We don't know how bad it will be, when it will be, or even IF it will be."
I certainly agree with the first two conditions of your sentence, the how bad and when, but can you elaborate on the "if"?
Do you see the possibility of vaccine efficacy and delivery mechanisms really holding out the promise of eliminating a flu pandemic from the future? Or are you just referring to the immediate short time scale with H5N1? i.e.that H5N1 might somehow disappear.
RobT: The "if" refers to a really serious pandemic. It is also possible that within another decade we could have a reasonable universal flu vaccine (i.e., not subtype specific). I'm not predicting that will happen soon but I don't see why it couldn't happen at some point. As I've said here more times than I can count, we need to have a public health and social structure system that can be of some use. That means planning for a serious pandemic, which could very well happen.
Revere,
Thank you for your thoughts on that. At least H5N1 has given the WHO and the vaccine researchers some real focus on a path to a universal flu vaccine, that would be a terrific achievement in the long run. Here's hoping it's not too long a run.
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/CrisesArticle.aspx?rpc=401&storyId=L313…
Still, WHO officials as of yesterday predict the inevitability of a flu pandemic sooner or later, I guess discounting the possibility of the universal vaccine magic bullet.
I work in a county health department, and I fear for our preparedness. I was required to take a bunch of ICS, and we're running a drill next month, but we're woefully untrained and unprepared.
I think if a pandemic hits, I'm going to stay home.
Quoting rangersue: "Glad you've got your ammo, Stu. Just be careful not to shoot yourself in the foot unwrapping a box of Slim Jims."
See why I avoid even talking about prepping? Everyone assumes you are a fool or a gun nut. I just knew I'd get a smart-ass remark if I mentioned firearms, I was replying to MRK's offer to send me his prep list.
stu: Don't worry about it. You will take abuse if you prep or if you don't (as in my case). I also learned that anything to do with guns (I'm against them, BTW) also draws a reaction. Since this site was designed for argument, it's OK, as long as the argument stays within bounds (I get to decide the bounds, of course).
They know where you live, C.Diane. If you took the pay won't they make you play?
How about switch that drill ("vaccine" again?
Vaccine from where? Your boss have a vax plant in his backyard?)
to a mass fatality drill; you can even ask online and people will make you up some ideas. At least tell everyone at the drill they need the 12 weeks of supplies at home the US State Dept got warned to prepare, last summer.
How long can your public self-quarantine when Homeland Security "directs" the public to do so for up to 90 days per wave(s)?
Why not tell your whole populace what a pandemic is and how they can prepare for it, and encourage a local http://pandemicflu.gov/plan/states/statelocalchecklist.html#preparedness
Pandemic Preparedness Co-ordinating Committee?
("All" stakeholders/community members) How do they see surviving a pandemic year?
They can meet weekly, or different focus groups can and meet together twice a month; maybe someone local would host a private forum for residents to discuss contingencty plans online pre-pandemic. No outside aid? they should be able to think up a bunch of issues in 5 min.
Weekly newspaper articles on different issues that need addressing, and what can be done by families and what by the community?
"Preparation is Power" ~ Dept. of Defense
If you don't want your job during pandemic, who is going to fire you now? Try telling HHS Sec.Leavitt what you need from HHS or others to get your commuites and agencies really preparing for pandemic flu year: do all your co-workers and citizens know these links?
HHS Pandemic Flu "Leadership" Blog: http://blog.pandemicflu.gov/
The Flu Wiki: http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Consequences.Consequences
PFI http://web.mac.com/monotreme1/iWeb/Pandemic%20Influenza%20Information/P…
Can you adapt the flyers Idaho will use? (see PFI)
"Prepare Now to Help Your Neighbor" ~ "Pablo Escobar".
There are people on the internet that can get things done without waiting for next year's budget.
But you, and those like you, have official authority creds that we lack.
Diane-Now thats throwing in the towel and yes we are woefully unprepared. I am an 800 level NGO myself. I wont accept that stay at home gig. Get in their faces and tell them to get up off their asses and do something. Prepping is the ONLY way right now to prevent a horrendous occurence of what will be the big game in history. It could still be mild as some suggest, but if not it will be the Katrina that Leavitt speaks of. Personal preparedness is the key. If everyone is personally prepared and it still gets you then it was almost ordained.
Discouraged? Hell yes, but now I have a two mile long street and subdivision prepared. I deliberately let it slip each and every time I speak to someone. Each time it makes the news I get another couple of calls and I send out the list and a disk to some, paper to those who cant afford a computer to pull it down as an email.
He who is sitting on the supplies if and when it comes gets to make the rules because all previous rules will mean jack if it does. The haves will be assailed by the have nots in a high CFR pandemic. Stu, I have included the alternative to a gun in my list and its actually worse than getting shot IMO. I have both and my entire neighborhood agreed to a rules of engagement if you will if it does come. There were no dissenters. Paranoid? Most here havent seen a riot, much less a food riot.
Dont let it get you down Stu... many deaths from the Black Death were from starvation rather than the plague. Anyone can have my list who wants it free of charge and copy that mother and send it off to family and friends.
Diane-demand action on the local level. Once thats done you go more regional. No one has to die other than the first few cases that let us know its here.