Spinning bird flu: clockwise or counterclockwise?

We have occasion to comment often here about how the same bird flu story is spun different ways. A case in point is reporting on statements made by the head of Indonesia's National Avian Influenza Committee, Bayu Krisnamurthi and the two different directions Agence France Presse and Reuters took the story.

Here's AFP:

Indonesian bird flu officials said Tuesday they were investigating several recent avian influenza deaths where the victims were believed to have not come into contact with infected poultry.

"In the last three to four months, we have had four cases where the poultry in the victim's neighbourhoods (tested) negative for the virus," said Bayu Krisnamurthi, head of Indonesia's National Avian Influenza Committee.

"The number is significant enough for us to intensify our investigations so that we could have a more accurate explanation," he told a press briefing giving an overview of what has happened in Indonesia this year with bird flu.

"Some 20 percent of confirmed cases in 2006 were inconclusive, meaning there was no direct contact with poultry. This year (2007) the figure has been raised to 30 percent," he added. (Agence France Presse)

This sounds like someone wondering if there is another reservoir or source besides poultry, something we have wondered ourselves and commented on here numerous times. The inconclusive source is not peculiar to Indonesia. It is the rule rather than the exception in China and about a third of the cases in Vietnam. Round up the usual suspect chickens has been the watch word but I often feel I am listening to a public health official on total automatic pilot.

A quote in the Reuters story from Krisnamurthi sounds much the same but embedded in a completely different context:

Indonesia has seen a drop in the number of bird flu infections in humans this year, although the fatality rate has risen and the country faces a long battle against the virus, a government official said on Tuesday.

[snip]

Bayu Krisnamurthi, head of the national bird flu commission, said there was now greater public awareness of the disease.

"Unfortunately, on a less than happy note, I have to say that Indonesia's battle against bird flu is not over, and the battle will continue for a long time," he told a news conference.

More needed to be done to contain sporadic outbreaks in poultry and on surveillance to spot sick chickens, Krisnamurthi said.

Many flocks of poultry did not show signs of the disease, even though they were carriers of the virus, while the rapid movement of fowl and humans sometimes made it difficult to trace the source of virus after human infection, he added.

"There were four cases in the past four months where we found a positive human case, but were not able to trace it to sick chickens," Krisnamurthi said.

"We need to intensify our search... unfortunately bird flu is endemic in this country, so the virus is everywhere." (Reuters)

In this version Krisnamurthi is calling for more of an effort to round up the usual suspects. Those sick chickens are there, he seems to be saying. We just haven't been very good at finding them.

Of course this may be true. Since there is undoubtedly undetected poultry infection it is either spot on or a self-fulfilling prophecy. Which is it?

Ah, if I knew that . . .

More like this

In my opinion, the most likely 'bridge' between the shoreline interface and the forest and farms and humans, dogs and cats...are rats and mice with the proviso that history tells us bats have to be involved somewhere in the chain of transmission.

We are still not hearing enough about testing of pigs in endemic areas.

I think I read last year? that H5N1 magnifies in rats or mice some 50,000 times if they are endemically infected. It was during the Indonesian "cats have it but we dont have authority to cull them" thing. Me, I would have kept a 55 gallon drum with dry ice in it and tossed Mr.Whiskers in just on suspicion. Thats from a guy who has four cats. Been a while though. It was about the time of the ferret thing.

Reservoir? Tom help me out here a bit. To me the cats are the likely reservoir sources and maybe dogs. The tromp in and out all day long, they lick their butts, they eat infected mice, chicks and rats. Dogs do the same but to a lesser scale. The fact that Indon hasnt reported any human cases since the Geneva debacle is disturbing. Shit, to me its an acknowledgment that indeed there are MORE cases there than they ever imagined.

Poultry cant be the reservoir. They are consumed or culled to quickly and we STILL see it pop up. Wild birds (ducks) is what Webster said and they pollute the water supplies. How much virus does it take to get infected? Could contaminated water be the vector to both animals and humans. I just cant see how it could be birds alone.

By M. Randolph Kruger (not verified) on 19 Dec 2007 #permalink

Randy: Not sure what you mean by amplifying 50,000 times. A reservoir is the place in nature where the virus hangs out. Birds are an acknowledged and certain reservoir. The question is whether there are others.

If we go back to Turkey for a moment...I believe the key piece of evidence was there.

A young man died exactly one year after his sister who was diagnosed with H5N1. They said at the time that he did not die of avian influenza but the coincidences are too great to accept this as fact (given misdiagnosis and false-negatives and last but not least, politics).

If the boy unfortunately died in the same house...then I am assuming the reservoir that gave it to him was very likely mice. They contact all interfaces (wild, domestic animals, birds and humans) and you couldn't have a more resilent and persistent and widespread vector.

Apologies for being slightly off-topic, but what do you make of this report from the USDA ARS:

Researchers have identified a new strain of swine influenza - H2N3 - which belongs to the group of H2 influenza viruses that last infected humans during the 1957 pandemic. This new strain has a molecular twist: It is composed of avian and swine influenza genes.

Is this new and significant?

Randolph. Pets and Domestic Animals can't be the vector in my opinion, because they do not contact the shoreline interface where wild waterfowl contact small (very tough) mammals that are opportunistic feeders...ie carrion and eggs, live birds etc. (muskrat, beaver, otter, mink, fisher, weazel etc.).

If you think about mice specifically and rats secondarily...they poop in poultry feed...biosecurity can't keep them out (outbreaks in Britain)...they live in the forest and fields (field mice- in fact, I ran into one yesterday on the top of three feet of snow - and he/she looked at me like 'what are you doing here'.

The line could be shoreline mammal to rats to bats and mice to poultry and pigs and dogs and cats to humans...although I believe cats and dogs play a very minor role.

So the job in Indonesia is quite simple really...a six good scientists and a few weeks and the hypothesis could be proven one way or another...and I would want to have a pretty close look at that house and surrounding environment in Turkey.

andy; It's a reassortant. Reassortment is a mechanism for genetic variation that goes on continually. So far this is just in pigs but the paper says it is an α2,6 H2 so it is adapted to mammals. Along with a bunch of other things it's something to keep our eyes on. As if we didn't have enough already! Thanks for the heads up. I'm printing it out now.

Okay doctor types... I guess this is what I meant. Now splain it to us...

Recent H5N1 avian Influenza A virus increases rapidly in virulence to mice after a single passage in mice
Masaji Mase, Nobuhiko Tanimura, Tadao Imada, Masatoshi Okamatsu, Kenji Tsukamoto and Shigeo Yamaguchi

Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Animal Health, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan

Correspondence
Masaji Mase
masema@affrc.go.jp

To evaluate the potential pathogenicity to mammals of the recent H5N1 avian Influenza A virus, viruses recovered from dead mice infected with A/chicken/Yamaguchi/7/2004 isolated in Japan were examined. All recovered viruses from the brains of dead mice infected with this strain (without any prior adaptation to mice) had substituted the amino acid at position 627 of the PB2 protein from glutamic acid to lysine. Their mouse lethality had increased by approximately 5x104 times over that of the original virus. Histopathological analysis reinforced the finding that these variants caused more rapid and severe damage to mice than the original virus. This revealed that it might be useful to characterize the recovered virus to assess its potential pathogenicity to mammals.

By M. Randolph Kruger (not verified) on 19 Dec 2007 #permalink

Isnt that the position that Niman said two years ago was one of the prime ones for human adaptation?

By M. Randolph Kruger (not verified) on 19 Dec 2007 #permalink

http://www.voanews.com/english/Science/2007-12-19-voa38.cfm

Tom, Revere read this and advise whether you buy it or not. Fewer cases, but now they are saying they might have had more cases. Fewer countries getting it, but more fatalities in the ones that do.

Seems to me they are talking out both sides of it again and now this week either they didnt read their own press we have had what appears to be latitine chains of infection... somewhat sustained. Genetic predisposition by sex or ethnicity. Seems to me that the H5N1 virus is cranking right along and breaking off new strains as it goes.

Now the gig with the new Swine flu having avian genetics merged with it. Sounds like 1976 all over again only this time it would seem that the potential exists for it to go amok. Sort thru this and tell us what you think.

By M. Randolph Kruger (not verified) on 19 Dec 2007 #permalink

Randy: This been talked about a lot everywhere. It didn't originate with him. We've written about it a lot here for several years. It's one of several.

.
Posted by Grace RN
He [Nabarro] said that broad epidemiological evidence suggests that the H5N1 virus situation is not quite so serious."

Any idea why Nabarro would say this?

Drinking the "U.N. Kool Aid"
.

By gilmoreaz (not verified) on 19 Dec 2007 #permalink

The US sent a mobile lab to Pakistan over the weekend and it should be nearly set up last night or today. The Russians are sending a few people too. I have said it before that if this starts to break out the first thing they would say is, "There is no cause for alarm".

Second on my list is that the media would start to press and even in the face of what appears to be outbreaks, they would still stick to the company line and start the media blitz to divert attention. Something else more important for that missing spot on the front page.

Finally, as this BS on BF gives them some cover and time to move the government whatevers into place they will come back and say,"Aw shit, it was BF afterall and we are now in a epidemic or pandemic" They will soft pedal it as much as they can, when they can until it truly is just about everywhere and they will say then they did everything they could....except tell people the truth from the beginning.

A full blown pandemic in birds is underway on this planet with 60 countries reporting it. Swine flu with bird genetics in it is being reported now and the mixing bowl scenario begins to come into play.

I think we are on a ride into Hell with the Reverend Jim Jones giving the sermon. Refreshments will be served GilM/Grace immediately after the service.

By M. Randolph Kruger (not verified) on 20 Dec 2007 #permalink

The US sent a mobile lab to Pakistan over the weekend and it should be nearly set up last night or today. The Russians are sending a few people too. I have said it before that if this starts to break out the first thing they would say is, "There is no cause for alarm".

Second on my list is that the media would start to press and even in the face of what appears to be outbreaks, they would still stick to the company line and start the media blitz to divert attention. Something else more important for that missing spot on the front page.

Finally, as this BS on BF gives them some cover and time to move the government whatevers into place they will come back and say,"Aw shit, it was BF afterall and we are now in a epidemic or pandemic" They will soft pedal it as much as they can, when they can until it truly is just about everywhere and they will say then they did everything they could....except tell people the truth from the beginning.

A full blown pandemic in birds is underway on this planet with 60 countries reporting it. Swine flu with bird genetics in it is being reported now and the mixing bowl scenario begins to come into play.

I think we are on a ride into Hell with the Reverend Jim Jones giving the sermon. Refreshments will be served GilM/Grace immediately after the service.

By M. Randolph Kruger (not verified) on 20 Dec 2007 #permalink

Randy: Maybe, maybe not. I'd guess not. Regarding the "swine flu with bird genetics" it has nothing to do with H5N1 as it is H2N3. This kind of reassortment is going on all the time and has been going on all the time.