The heart of bird flu season coming up

optimists,pessimists - that's both not good.
Let's be realists.
Seasonal flu on northern hemisphere also peaks in Feb.,Mar

it's still cold enough and enough time to slowly build up
since the start of winter

It appears there are at least 36 additional cases not yet figured into the graph listed in the blue bar at the bottom. Yes? There are also some additional cases in Egypt and Iraq reported in the last couple of days. If you add those to the 42 listed in the graph the total rises to 78 cases by March 6.

The next thing to consider is how many cases are we missing? How many were never tested though treated? How many buried before testing was done? And though I was lambasted for it, I still suspect there were cases in both India and Bangladesh. Neither of these two countries are even listed in the graph. It seems inconceivable to me that these two countries suffered a devastating hit to their poultry industries without experiencing a single human case. Whether the cause was due to deliberate manipulation, poverty or, ignorance is irrelevant. Either the virus has changed in those two countries or, the behaviour of the inhabitants was exemplary. After reading the accounts of confiscated, smuggled, sick chickens, we know the second isn't true. So perhaps they were just very lucky or, God blessed them as he did the Jews during Passover. In any case, the WHO totals are likely to be only the tip of the iceberg.

While humans stare fixated on H5N1, like a deer frozen in the headlights on an oncoming car, XDR-TB and MDR-TB are exploding, and out of control.
But of course, bird flu may soon find the umbrella shape required, and kill the shit out of us soon.
While missiles from us warships exteminate innocents in Somalia.
Long live the fascist motherland that is the United States, and may we all rot in hell.

Please read this you capitalist bastards that want to maximize profits:
"By raising chickens in enclosed spaces, treating them with antibiotics, and denying them access to fresh air, clean water and natural sunlight, we are creating optimal conditions for the breeding of highly infectious diseases that can quickly mutate into human pandemics," Adams said. "Given current poultry farming practices, it is only a matter of time before a highly virulent strain crosses the species barrier."
You, the corporations of our motherland. Keep this shit up and we will all be dead soon. I spit on your graves.

Shannon, I missed the posts where you were lambasted for voicing suspicions that there have probably been human cases in Bangladesh and India. Just want to say that I agree with you -- not with the lambasters. India -- If I were a bettor, I'd bet alot. Bangladesh -- I'd bet my mortgage.

WHO-confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans during quarter 1 of 2008 will be greater than
cases during quarter 1 of 2007
Prediction as of 2/28/2008
Current Market Prices Yes:0.57 no:0.43

Bird flu cannot be controlled by culling birds. It is a joke. Culling only works in a small area, not when the whole planet is infested. Cullers will only spread the infection.
When Revere was in an airport in Italy, he posted the following: No more blood for oil in Iraq.
US warships fire a missle to kill a terrorist, and they kill innocent people in Somalia. Over 1 million have been killed in Iraq as a result of the invasion of the US. Mercinaries from Blackwater corporation shot over 17 innocent people in Iraq? Do you get it. To hell with bird flu. Stop the killing of innocent people by the fascist US now, or we will all rot in hell for it. Do you get it? You cannot kill people. It is wrong.

Herman-time to cut down on the coffee intake again.

There havent been 1 million killed in Iraq, there hasnt been 600,000 either. That has been refuted more than once. Hitting a terrorist base in Somalia was done two or three days ago to get at a known target and this was under the rules of engagement granted to the Prez several years ago.

Shannon-Might want to check this out too....

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=6077

Randolph, I have seen the blue ear pig disease before (streptococcus suis). It continues to run rampant through China decimating the swine and, driving up the price of pork. There were some earlier who believed this was an even nastier H5N1 but I don't agree with the speculators. I do believe streptococcus suis has changed and, is now a significant threat to not only the Chinese, but eventually to anyone who raises swine.

It appears we have another human case in Indonesia and possibly another in Egypt. Early in the month yet and the weather remains nasty. It would appear Path Forward, that yours is a sucker bet. *snort* *lol*

Herman, ever looked into the pros and cons of kava kava?

herman, take you medication.

I remember two years ago, Flublogia was ready to declare stage 4 or higher. I don't deny things continue to bubble, but for now, it's the same story and no news is good news in my mind.

Revere, as always, I appreciate your interpretation. Would you care to speculate what it might take to change your outlook to cautiously optimistic?

Patch: I'd feel much better if there were an ample stockpile of a cross subtype vaccine and a way to distribute it. Not likely for a while.

Revere is this new news or is old news rehashed? It doesnt give a PloS number or reference. According to the good people at UWisc its made the shift/drift to become more able to infect the cells of the upper respiratory tract. I could be wrong but I think this came out last year? Or is it new?

Randy: I presume you are referring to a Kawaoka paper on temperature sensitivity. Saw a newswire story but haven't seen the paper myself. There is likely to be a spate of "this is the gene" stories coming out (that's my guess). Science is slow and we'll have to see where the various puzzle pieces fit and how they fit together or whether they are distorted or even part of another puzzle. I don't try to apply these things right away.

Randy: Yes, it's a paper that is about a year old, about E627K in PB2. Here's the cite:

http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.ppat.0030…

Reason for seasonality of influenza in the cold:
Influenza: Primary - initial - spread triggered off by the abiotic vehicle cold drinking water
Trigger of human influenza epidemics by the warm biotic droplet infection improbably

Wilfried Soddemann

Contact:
Bauassessor Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried Soddemann
Mühlenstraße 5b
D - 48351 Everswinkel
Germany
eMail: soddemann-aachen@t-online.de

The primary - initial - trigger of from the human influenza epidemics by the biotic droplet infection is unproved and (BRANKSTON et al. 2007) and extremely improbably because influenza epidemics
only in 9% of the cases (season 2004/2005 in Germany) together with recognized cluster arise.
virological locally singularly arise (influenza-subtypes and fine classification).
arise geographically locally singularly.
in large cities and densely populated areas to be proven not with priority.
predominantly in the colder regions of Germany arise.
their maxima regularly in certain districts/cities reach.
strictly parallel to the course of the winter cooling sum run.
by saliva droplets hardly can spread. Saliva contains far less Influenza viruses than the - heavier - droplets from throat and nose.

The facts

Influenza epidemics in Germany occur together with recognized cluster rarely (9% of the cases in the season 2004/2005) (RKI 2006).

Influenza epidemics occur virological locally singularly (influenza-subtypes and fine classification) (AGI 2007).

Influenza epidemics run also geographically locally singularly. They are not proven with priority in large cities and densely populated areas. They arise predominantly in the colder regions of Germany (the east in the winter cold continental climate, southeast, altitudes) (RKI 2007). They reach their maxima regularly in certain districts/cities (absolute maxima: Frankenthal, Worms, district Stollberg) (RKI 2007).

Influenza epidemics run strictly parallel to the course of the winter cooling sum.

Influenza epidemics hardly can spread by saliva droplets. Saliva contains far less Influenzaviruses than the substantially heavier droplets from throat and nose (ANONYMOUS 2003) (GOLDMANN 2001).

Human Influenzaviruses could being proven in the excretions of mammals such as pigs (faecal and oronasal), wild boar (faecal and oronasal), cattle and goats, so that in principle the transmission path from the environment is over waters and the drinking water possible (BROWN 2004) (GRAVES et al. 1975) (KADEN et al. 2001) (KAWAOKA et al. 1986) (LANDOLT et al. 2003) (MARKOWSKA DANIEL et al. 1999) (RKI 1999) (VICENTE et al. 2002) (WEBSTER 1998) (ZHOU et al. 1996) (CARPENTER 2001). With considerable security in the future still further animal species infected with influenza A are discovered (WEBSTER 1998).

Elimination and inactivating of viruses during the drinking water treatment

Drinking water is often not filtered in Germany or only roughly. The very small viruses are not removed surely thereby. For groundwater treating fast spread filtration plants for the elimination of iron and manganese do not possess any effect regarding the elimination of viruses (WHO 2004). Even in Germany as particularly efficiently valid plants for the flocculation and filtration, also with consideration of the common disinfection procedures, whose efficiency with sinking water temperature decreases [Chlorine and ozone treatment] and with micro organisms clumped in the water are only reduced effective [Chlorine, ozone treatment and UV irradiation], can not reach from the WHO demanded eliminations and inactivating goals (WHO 2004).

"Cooling chain of the public water supply"

Coldness is the most important parameter for the preservation of virulent Influenzaviruses in water. The temperature minimum of the dam water in Germany amounts to in the months January and February 3-4°C. River water has its temperature minimum likewise in January and February. Ground water near the surface has in Germany at the ground water surface - similar to the soil in 100 cm depth - its temperature minimum of for instance 3°C in February and March. Also from wells of larger depth taken ground water can be colder with unsatisfactory sealing between the fountain and the surrounding rock by infiltration by surface water affected and therefore than the deeper ground water. River water trickling away arrives on short ways at the wells, can have the same effect. Bank filtrate from wells, which were bored near the bank by surface waters, accepts the temperature of the cold surface water. Same applies to wells, from which with surface water enriched ground water is pumped. The soil temperatures in a meter of depth correspond to the temperatures of the drinking water pipelines shifted frost-protected in the soils. The temperature minima of the soil temperatures in 100 cm depth amount to in Germany during the months February and March 3-5°C (DWD 2007). The temperatures of the drinking water pipelines and the drinking water transported in them adapt themselves to the soil temperatures. In the winter cold raw water remains cold in the drinking water treatment plants and after the treatment to drinking water in the water tanks and water pipelines up to the annexe of the consumers. The temperature minimum of the drinking water follows in particular the run of the wintry cold sum in the soil and in the water pipelines. It arises in the months February/March. The cold drinking water is just mixed in the dwellings at the taps with warm water from the house installation. Thus the "cooling chain of the public water supply" is described from the water winning to the consumers with a drinking water temperature of for instance 4-5°C in the months February/March. Cold, young, freshly drinking water, taken out of surface water and badly protected ground water near the surface as well as out of ground water from roc, contaminated by Influenzaviruses, can be the abiotic vehicle, which transports virulent Influenzaviruses in the winter with 4-5°C conserved over the "cooling chain of the public water supply" to humans.

Transmission paths of the drinking water

Infections by drinking water will not be transmitted alone by drinking the water. Further transmission paths are the inhalation of aerosols and the contact with the drinking water. Entrance gates with humans are conjunctiva, the nose mucous membrane, the mouth mucous membrane, the eardrum, wounds and by catheters affected other mucous membranes.

Conclusions

The primary transmission of the influenza by the biotic warm droplet infection from human to human is already because of the strict dependence on environmental temperatures extremely improbable. The influenza must be triggered by an abiotic vehicle increasingly efficient for the spread of infections with increasing cold environmental temperatures. Therefore must be searched for the transmission of the influenza for abiotic vehicles dependent on cold environmental temperatures. Drinking water is such an abiotic vehicle.

The stated references and indications show that cold drinking water can be that abiotic vehicle, with which virulent human Influenza viruses from the reservoirs arrives to humans and triggers predominantly the seasonal influenza epidemics.

That applies in particular also to the extremely lethal H5N1 bird flu, whose faecal transmission is indisputable.

References

AGI (2007): Arbeitsgemeinschaft Influenza http://influenza.rki.de/agi
ANONYM (2003): Understanding Sars and other Respiratory Infections May 2003.
http://www.ifh-homehygiene.org/2003/2downloadabledoc/SARS.pdf
BRANKSTON et al. (2007): Transmission of influenza A in human beings. Lancet Infect Dis. 2007 Apr;7(4):257-65. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?Db=pubmed&Cmd=ShowDetailView&T…
BROWN (2004): Influenza Virus Infections of Pigs, Part 1: swine, avian & human influenza viruses. http://www.pighealth.com/influenza.htm ; Part 2: Transmission between pigs and other species. Veterinary Laboratories Agency, UK.
http://www.pighealth.com/influenzaB.htm
DWD (2007): Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Wetterstation Erfurt-Bindersleben, Erdbodentemperaturen aus 100 cm Tiefe
GOLDMANN (2001): Epidemiology and Prevention of Pediatric Viral Respiratory Infections in Health-Care Institutions, Childrens Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Special Issue.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol7no2/goldmann.htm
GRAVES et al. (1975): Human viruses in animals in West Bengal: An ecological analysis, Human Ecology, Volume 3, Number 2 / April, 1975, 105-130.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/u5408wx5t622ll82/
KADEN et al. (2001): Gefährliche Verwandtschaft. Schwarzwild - ein natürliches Reservoir für Infektionserreger und Ansteckungsquelle für Hausschweine? Bundes-forschungsanstalt für Viruskrankheiten der Tiere: Forschungsreport 1/2001: 24-28.
http://ticker-grosstiere.animal-health-online.de/20010902-00002/
KAWAOKA et al. (1986): Intestinal replication of influenza A viruses in two mammalian species, Archives of Virology, Volume 93, Numbers 3-4 / December, 1987, 303-308.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/g352726672xj5703/
LANDOLT et al. (2003): Comparison of the Pathogenesis of Two Genetically Different H3N2 Influenza A Viruses in Pigs, J Clin Microbiol. 2003 May; 41(5): 19361941.
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&rend…
MARKOWSKA-DANIEL et al. (1999): Seroprevalence of influenza virus among wild boars in Poland. National Veterinary Research Institute, Swine Diseases Departement, Pulawy, Poland. http://www.medwet.lublin.pl/Year%201999/vol99-05/art222-98.htm
RKI (1999): Robert Koch-Institut (RKI) Merkblatt für Ärzte Influenza Verhütung und Bekämpfung (Stand 1999).
www.gapinfo.de/gesundheitsamt/alle/seuche/infekt/viru/grippe/mba/index…
RKI (2006): Infektionsepidemiologisches Jahrbuch meldepflichtiger Krankheiten für 2005, Datenstand: 1. März 2006)
RKI (2007): Robert Koch-Institut Berlin, RKI, Datenbank der nach Infektionsschutzgesetz meldepflichtigen Infektionskrankheiten in Deutschland; http://www3.rki.de/SurvStat/
VICENTE et al. (2002): Antibodies to selected viral and bacterial pathogens in European wild boars from southcentral Spain. J Wildl Dis. 38(3): 649-52.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&li…
WEBSTER (1998): Influenza: An Emerging Disease. Emerging Infectious Diseases 4(3). http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol4no3/webster.htm
WHO (2004): World Health Organization (WHO), 2004, Guidelines for drinking-water quality, 3rd Ed., http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/dwq/gdwq3/en/print.html
ZHOU et al. (1996): Influenza infection in humans and pigs in southeastern China, Archives of Virology, Volume 141, Numbers 3-4 / March, 1996, 649-661. http://www.springerlink.com/content/p220471r1r337521/
ZIMMERMANN (2001): Krankheiten des Schweines. Veterinärmedizinische Fakultät der Universität Bern, Vorlesungsskript: 49-51.
http://www.vetmed.unibe.ch/studvet/download/year4/Erkr%20der%20Schweine…

There havent been 1 million killed in Iraq, there hasnt been 600,000 either.

Assuming for the moment that this is true...how many is too many, exactly? At what level of fatalities should we put aside armchair realpolitik, and start becoming morally engaged?

Inquiring minds want to know.

I'm very interested in Revere's thoughts on Soddemann's post.

The English is a little hard to follow, but is drinking water the missing link?

Patch,
If you are asking if drinking water has been found to be contaminated with the virus then the answer is yes. At least it is if your water comes from a river or other non- chlorinated source.

Patch: I looked into this a couple of years ago. The most likely to be contaminated are surface waters but those are the ones that are most routinely treated with conventional treatment techniques (coagulation-filtration, disinfection). I was concerned mainly about untreated groundwater, although these sources are least likely to be contaminated. I doubt that the virus would be a meaningful threat in most water systems in the US. Just my opinion, but I'm reasonably knowledgeable about water supplies. Not the missing link or likely to be a major problem.