Effect Measure

Germany free of bird flu. Oh, oh.

Germany has been free of bird flu in poultry for three months. I predict they are about to have another outbreak. How do I know? Because every time I see something like this it’s like a signal to whatever fickle gods control these things:

The German government declared on Tuesday the country is free of bird flu, with no cases of deadly H5N1 avian influenza discovered in wild birds or domestic poultry for the past three months.

According to German Agriculture Ministry, the last outbreak of bird flu was in poultry in rural areas west of Berlin in December.

Germany had its first brush with bird flu in February 2006.

The three-month rule is applied by the World Organization for Animal Health OIE.

Gerd Mueller, state secretary at the Agriculture Ministry, who has just returned from a trip to the United Arab Emirates, said the Gulf nation had told him it would accept imports of German poultry meat and beef. (Xinhua)

Of course I could be wrong and I concede it’s sort of silly. It’s based on nothing . . . just experience. We’ll see.


  1. #1 Joe Six Pack
    March 26, 2008

    Revere believes in gods…. nanny nanny boo boo.

  2. #2 Lea
    March 26, 2008

    It is pathetic, to say the least, that we hear repeatedly “bird flu free”.

  3. #3 Rene
    March 27, 2008

    That didn’t take long: “Bird flu resurfaces in Switzerland”. It was found in a duck at lake Sempachersee, not too far from Germany (3-27-2008).

    Do you have any other predictions to make? Winning lottery-numbers would be nice :)

  4. #4 revere
    March 27, 2008

    rene: According to frequent emails I receive I win European lotteries all the time. I’ll share some of the winning numbers with you. In this case, Switzerland is one digit off from the winning number which has to be inside Germany. We’ll see. Thanks for the update.

  5. #5 anon
    March 27, 2008

    which revere is this ? Can we at least enumerate them ?
    too unscientific for the last year’s revere
    blient revere fient auk mal een Tafelente

  6. #6 miso
    March 28, 2008


    you realise of course that by making your prediction known you have trumped the signal sent by the German government and the fickle gods who control these things will now concentrate on thwarting your prediction instead…..at least that’s been my experience in such cases.

    Fortunately said gods have the attention span of goldfish, or perhaps they are responding to too many signals to effectively deal with any. The earth’s population has grown so-as to make responses to the signals seem fickle, and there simply isn’t the time to track down a Noah or Moses any more, let alone talk to them….but I digress….