Newspapers and wireservices are doing a terrific job keeping a flow of information on H1N1/2009 (the virus formerly known as swine flu). And so, I am happy to say, is the blogosphere. I don't want to slight some terrific bloggers by mentioning some and not others, so I won't do a blogroll. OK. I will make one exception to the "not mentioning" by mentioning crof over at H5N1, not only for his usual splendid job of gathering the news but for his great blog roll and resource list on the sidebar.
And, yes, I am going to make another exception for an exceptional blog post by my long time blogging colleague and stalwart of Flu Wiki and DailyKos, DemFromCT. If you want to read the best explanation of the rationale for the current policy on school closings, this is it. It's a must read. Go and read it. Now.
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Thanks. I do expect things to lighten up, with less (not more) school closings as time goes on, unless the picture changes.
Also, back in 2006 or so when this was developed, the idea was that a pandemic likely came from overseas, and to slow things down, all schools in a state might close (depending on severity.) This "spot-closure", one school at a time, is relatively new, and I do not know how well it's been modeled. Maybe others do.
I hope, Dem, you realize that none other than Instapundit (http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/ ) has linked to your post via Aetiology with not so much as a heh of disrespect.
I ssecond Reveres comment with all my Heart.
Crofsblog is such a Gatherer.
And for DemfromCt Diary of today Great Post of today at
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/5/2/727192/-H1N1:-Why-Do-Schools-Clo…
I See a Timely, Coherent, Clear, Swift and Bold Public Health Message, a Must Read.
Snowy
WHO reportedly prepares to declare pandemic
http://www.marketwatch.com/...
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The World Health Organization's chief is reportedly on the brink of declaring the outbreak of a new strain of A/H1N1 swine flu a pandemic, though she said that doesn't necessarily mean the disease is highly lethal or that it will hit the entire globe.
"There is a lot of misunderstanding in terms of fear and death," Margaret Chan, the United Nations public health agency's director-general, told the Wall Street Journal Sunday. "It doesn't mean death in big numbers is going to happen."
Once the disease begins spreading in a sustained way in other parts of the world, WHO protocols compel her to make the declaration, she told the Journal, even though the strain isn't as deadly as most people tend to associate with the word "pandemic".
snip
President Barack Obama in his weekly radio address reiterated some of the administration's recommendations, including asking schools with confirmed cases to close for up to 14 days, and urging businesses to let sick employees take all the sick days they need.
Snowy
I hadn't seen that. Well, this is really a nonpartisan topic.
I know of DemFromCT from DKos (I've been a long-time lurker over there - never posted) but didn't know he was involved in this stuff. Great post on there BTW.
Every time I see people complaining about the schools being closed (I already did it on DallasNews.com just now), I will point out your wonderful post to them. I just wish it wasn't on DailyKos because some of the right wingers will reject it out of hand without reading it.
Revere, in a future post, could you discuss the issue of hospitalization rate as a sign of mildness/severity of a particular flu strain? There is an AP article out now that mentions 30 hospitalized cases of the swine flu. It also states that the cases are "mostly older children and young adults, in contrast to ordinary flu, which tends to send the elderly and very young to the hospital." It's not entirely clear if all 30 of these hospitalizations are confirmed cases, but if the total confirmed in the US stands at 245 and there are 30 hospitalized, doesn't that work out to a rate of 1 in 8? Even acknowledging that there are probably 10 probable for every 1 confirmed, that would still work out to 1 in 80. Isn't that a little high for something that is being characterized as mild as seasonal flu? Could you discuss? Thanks!
So I've been reading the flu blogs and sites like crazy this week and I think I have a pretty good handle on what's going on. I've talked to quite a few friends today and I find that most are shrugging this away or ask me, 'So how bad is it?' They think H1N1 is a tax form. Comments revolve around no sick leave and this flu is the least of their worries.
Our state hasn't had any cases. We scored low on some critique of the states pandemic preparedness plans. I note two press notices about swine flu on the state health dept website (no cases here, wash your hands) that basically refers citizens to the CDC site. I go to our county health dept website and see a note to go to the CDC website. Makes me wonder if ANY samples have even been sent in to the CDC.
Um. It's like we live on some other planet here. Many people think its some political thing. Many don't trust the government any more than Mexican residents trust theirs. So while the flu bloggers are doing cartwheels and writing posts worthy of awards, folks here don't even know you exist nor care what the CDC says. I checked the shelves today. Plenty of N95 masks here at the hardware store.
Oh. Did I mention we have 86 hospital beds and 7 ventilators for 82,000 people?
it is a thoughtful explanation of official thinking, but the official thinking assumes every new virus causes extra pandemic deaths at least equal to the 1957 rate or much higher.
there is no science in those assumptions, just selective history. 1957 and 1968 match that idea. but we had substantially new H1N1 viruses in 1976 (fast fizzle) and in 1947 and 1977 (worldwide spread but no deaths beyond expected seasonal flu).
the new state confirmed testing process will create an upsurge of cases in the next few days. if the summary remains "no worse than seasonal flu but widespread," stopping it is futile and (maybe) slowing it down not worth the costs. it wont be any different than the flus the same schools had last month.
i do think vigorous worldwide surveillance should continue, as well as the technical steps to be able to make a vaccine if needed, but closing schools before we see a single death anywhere outside mexico is premature.
Which state are you in, Phytosleuth?
The problem with closing schools is that you have to ensure that the children also practice social distancing and not congregate in the mall, etc. This was clearly shown in a model conducted by Haber Emory University.
Eric B, go to Niman's map site and click on the small map below the world map: Confirmed Cases by US County.
Pick any state that has no confirmed cases. Then go check their state dept of public health website and maybe a few county health websites. Which ones look prepared to you? Which ones don't?
Note: several states that show no cases actually do have confirmed cases now.