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Effect Measure

Effect Measure is a forum for progressive public health discussion and argument as well as a source of public health information from around the web that interests the Editor(s)

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The Editors of Effect Measure are senior public health scientists and practitioners. Paul Revere was a member of the first local Board of Health in the United States (Boston, 1799). The Editors sign their posts "Revere" to recognize the public service of a professional forerunner better known for other things.

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Antiviral model series:

Pandemic flu "lockdown" nonsense

Coping with pandemic flu with computer models

Does Tamiflu work for bird flu?

The maker of Tamiflu reports data suggesting the drug works for bird flu.

Tamiflu resistance again

It's not just pills, even when they work.

Modeling antiviral resistance, XVI: conclusion and take-home messages

We wrap up our discussion of a mathematical modeling paper. At last.

Modeling antiviral resistance, XV: a few words about model assumptions

Wherein we ask what difference some of the assumptions make.

A new paper on Tamiflu/Relenza resistance in JAMA

New research on influenza B resistance to antivirals.

Modeling antiviral resistance, XIV: Discussion

Wherein the authors summarize the important part of their results.

Modeling antiviral resistance, XIII: effects of fitness costs of resistance

How the genetic cost of developing resistance affects epidemic size and timing.

Modeling antiviral resistance, XII: effects of Tamiflu use and non drug interventions

Unexpected effects of increased Tamiflu use and non drug interventions.

Modeling antiviral resistance, XI: effects of treatment and prophylaxis on resistance

Using Tamiflu for prophylaxis, for treatment or for both.

Modeling antiviral resistance, X: ready to run the model

Getting ready to push the button.

Modeling antiviral resistance, IX: the rule book in equation form

We explain the equations.

Modeling antiviral resistance, VIII: finishing the rule book

The last details on how people move from compartment to compartment in a mathematical model of antiviral resistance.

Modeling antiviral resistance, VII: more on the rule book

Moving people around in the figure, first part.

Modeling antiviral resistance, VI: the rule book

We apply the Law of Mass Action to move people from compartment to compartment

Modeling antiviral resistance, V: the model variables

Digging into the model.

Modeling sidebar: thinking mathematically

Digression on the difficulties of thinking mathematically.

Modeling antiviral resistance, IV: the essential assumption

We describe the mathematical engine that makes the model work.

Modeling antiviral resistance, III: Introduction. What's the paper about?

We examine what the modeling paper is about.

Modeling antiviral resistance, II: a modeling paper

The structure of a scientiic paper on modeling a flu outbreak.

Modeling antiviral resistance, I: what's a model?

What is a mathematical model?

Modeling antiviral resistance, post zero: A failed blog experiment

Advance notice of a noble experiment -- to explain a mathematical modeling paper in detail.

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