Blogging to Hit Peak Next Year

From the BBC:

The blogging phenomenon is set to peak in 2007, according to technology predictions by analysts Gartner.

The analysts said that during the middle of next year the number of blogs will level out at about 100 million.

The firm has said that 200 million people have already stopped writing their blogs.

Gartner has made 10 predictions, including stating that Vista will be the last major release of Windows and PCs will halve in cost by 2010.

Gartner analyst Daryl Plummer said the reason for the levelling off in blogging was due to the fact that most people who would ever start a web blog had already done so.

He said those who loved blogging were committed to keeping it up, while others had become bored and moved on.

“A lot of people have been in and out of this thing,” Mr Plummer said.

“Everyone thinks they have something to say, until they’re put on stage and asked to say it.”

Only a hundred million, eh? For a second there I though the field might actually be crowded.

Comments

  1. #1 Blake Stacey
    December 14, 2006

    Something seems voodoo about this “analysis”, but I spent all day buried in PHP-from-Hell and my brain ain’t workin’ well enough to tell what’s wrong with the picture.

  2. #2 Blake Stacey
    December 14, 2006

    OK, now compare this with a story from just over a month ago, also from the BBC, entitled “Blogosphere sees healthy growth“.

    The web’s love affair with blogging shows no signs of abating according to the latest report from blog tracking firm Technorati. [...] While the daily figure of 100,000 new weblogs is down on the 160,000 total from June 2006 it does not indicate a slowdown in growth rates. It just means that more spamblogs or splogs — fake blogs used for promotion of affiliated websites — are being filtered out of the index.

  3. #3 Scott Belyea
    December 14, 2006

    Hmmm … technology predictions. They’ve been so accurate in the past, haven’t they?

  4. #4 anomalous4
    December 15, 2006

    200 million people have already stopped writing their blogs.

    Ah, statistics.

    Blogs…….wotthebleep. I’ve started eight and abandoned seven of ‘em. I’d much rather read (and occasionally raise hell with) other people’s.

    The eighth is still out there, but I started it under another alias about 3 years ago and can’t even remember where it is……..

  5. #5 Blake Stacey
    December 15, 2006

    I made a conscious decision never to feed my inner demon by getting a blog of my own. Instead, I comment on other people’s, which forces me to stay civil (most of the time).

    Really, you can’t say anything about blogging reaching a “peak” or a “plateau” unless you also discuss the people reading and commenting on them.

  6. #6 jj mollo
    December 19, 2006

    It seems to me that the appropriate measure of the popularity of blogs is how many words of hand-typed posts and comments are being created every day. I suspect that the predicted saturation date is premature simply because the phenomenon is still new in a lot of countries, or restricted by the state. Some of these places are going to loosen up. I haven’t seen anything like the English language blogosphere in French yet. Then again, that might be because my interests are more central to English language culture. But what does it really matter, the absolute size of the blog world. The qualitative changes seem to outpace the numbers.

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