Gene Expression

The business cycle, then and now

Two interesting graphs from Calculated Risk. The first shows that the changes in GDP seem during the last recessive are on a par with those of the early 1980s and before (though we don’t know if we’re in a U or V shaped recession yet, though the odds are probably more U than V right now). But the second shows that in terms of employment we may be in uncharted territory, the worst of both worlds in terms of the jobless recoveries of the shallow recessions of the 1990s and early 2000s as well as the deep declines in employment of earlier recessions.

I’ve been hearing about the soon-to-come structural realignments in the economy resulting in a higher basal rate of unemployment for nearly 20 years. Economists will of course scoff at this sort of fatalism, pointing out such prognostications have always been falsified in the past. We’ll see….

i-ae1eb6c7bfac23e3e5ae6bbedd376cb7-RealGDPDeclinesQ4-1.jpeg

i-f67d30cc9a09f9643dce08aa1ea0ef65-EmploymentRecessionsDec.png

Comments

  1. #1 RUJoking?!
    January 31, 2010

    Total job holders divided by total population should be more accurate, since unemployment #’s are thoroughly manipulated by most govt’s.

    For more info see:

    http://www.shadowstats.com

    They have US unemployment at over 20%.

  2. #2 bob sykes
    January 31, 2010

    If the Democrats succeed in pushing through cap and trade, we will get a permanent 17% reduction in industrial and agricultural output and a commensurate reduction in total employment and/or standard of living. The health care plan will also reduce employment as employers seek to limit employee costs. We may be in for a very scary ride with an unknowable destination.

  3. #3 John Emerson
    February 1, 2010

    If the Democrats succeed in pushing through cap and trade, we will get a permanent 17% reduction in industrial and agricultural output and a commensurate reduction in total employment and/or standard of living. The health care plan will also reduce employment as employers seek to limit employee costs. We may be in for a very scary ride with an unknowable destination.

    What a bunch of utter crap. We’re talking something actual, a very serious and frightening problem that’s already with us, but for you it’s just a leadin to your own uninformed whining about a few of your pet Democrat-bashing issues, pure allegations about the future.