Remember how Hanna messed up western Cuba? It now looks like Ike is going to mess up the rest of Cuba. The current track forecast has Ike running right down the spine of the country until exiting just east of Hanna's coverage. Ike's center will move onto Cuba in several hours, and back over water, into the Gulf, early AM Tuesday.
Ike is currently a Category Four hurricane. It will be considerably weakened after it leaves the Cuban mainland Tuesday, but conditions for its restrengthening are in place. Also, while Ike is forecast to remain right over the Cuban mainland for a couple of days, it is still possible that it will shift to the north, which would cause it to remain stronger during this period.
After leaving Cuba, Ike is expected to be heading roughly northwest. The storm will most likely make landfall on the US Gulf Coast. The five day track does not reach the mainland yet. Yesterday, if you extrapolated the five day track (a dangerous, senseless exercise) it was headed right to New Orleans. Right now, it is headed right for Houston Texas. The northern vs. western heading of Ike is at this point very unpredictable and the official forecasts are not saying anything about where the storm may come ashore.
Physical Science
Comments
The BEST thing it could do for the US is travel straight up Cuba. I doubt that will happen. The latest update looks like the track has gone back east a bit, which isn't good. The only thing to hope for is if it takes the same path as Gustav, perhaps the lower water temps left in Gustav's wake will make for less development.
BTW, can you believe that Hanna is STILL at tropical storm strength as it passes the Boston area?
Posted by: Kate | September 7, 2008 9:48 AM
I am glad that the destruction of Cuba pleases some people...
Posted by: Mimi | September 7, 2008 10:07 AM
I'm assuming that Kate mean that for the US this is the best thing (which would be true). We are all hoping Cuba is not terribly affected. But it will be and we should stand by to help if at all possible.
This could actually end up being a defining moment historically speaking . We'll see.
The cooling/mixing effects of Gustav are probably irrelevant by now.
Posted by: greg laden | September 7, 2008 10:25 AM
Posted by: Virgil Samms | September 7, 2008 10:48 AM
Yes, but this is a blog. A blog is a dangerous, senseless place.
Posted by: greg laden | September 7, 2008 10:57 AM
Goodness, poor Cuba, almost always in a hurricane's path.
Posted by: IBY | September 8, 2008 1:13 AM