What is the electoral map going to look like on Wednesday morning? Who knows?!?!? But I have a guess, and my current estimate is Obama 364 vs. McCain 174.
This conclusion is based on the following reasoning:
We begin with a baseline electoral map that everyone will agree with. On this map, definite Obama states are in Blue, definite McCain states are in Red. (Original, huh?) If any of this ends up being wrong, we’re looking at a man bites dog situation, news-wise.
Now, you need 270 electoral votes to win, and this gives neither candidate a win.
I’m going to give McCain all the states that people think are “leaning McCain” … which basically means West Virginia.
The following states are considered to be ‘leaning Obama” and they are listed in descending order of likelihood of Obama taking the state based on Real Clear Politics poll averages:
|State||Votes||Lead||Votes if won|
As you can see, adding a subset of these states to Obama’s total brings him past the 270 minimum. So he needs to win some, and can lose some, of these states. Keep this list of states handy on Tuesday night!
So for my estimate, I looked at all of these states, and the latest polls and other indicators strongly suggest that Obama is pretty likely to win all of them. So I turned them all blue on my map. Then, I went through the RCP averages for the remaining, “tossup” states and called them as I seez ‘em. The resulting map is here:
I could be wrong about Arizona and North Dakota for McCain, and I could be wrong about Florida for Obama.
Indeed, I could be wrong about the whole dang thing, because I usually am when it comes to these things.
Obama supporters: Do not become complacent! Vote!
McCain supporters: Have you heard? Democrats vote Tuesday, Republicans vote Wednesday. Lucky Republicans, you get to go when the lines are guaranteed to be short!!!!
These maps were made on Real Clear Politics, which has a doohickey that allows you to change the states like you want. here.