FiveThirtyEight is a pretty good web site dealing with polls and other election realted number crunching. They predicted the outcome of the race for president almost as accurately as I did, so I figure they’re pretty good. And now, FiveThirtyEight has a reasonably good analysis suggesting that Franken is going to win the recount.
Here’s the argument in a nutshell. Franken is going to win because of all the reasons we’ve been saying all along (see this and this). But in some precincts, the Republicans are challenging a LOT of votes that are likely to be called as Franken votes, so they are NOT part of the current recount numbers that are coming out (see this). This effect … Republicans burying Franken votes in the challenge pile .. may in fact be increasing.
So, the vote is likely to be close but still favoring Coleman until the special board that will review the challenges is done with its work. Then the vote will switch over to Franken. And Coleman will be out.