Here’s the graph:

The explanation for the graph is here.

This is a little misleading. The number of votes counted yesterday and contributing to this right-most point is very small … hardly any counting was going on during the day Saturday. The Monday data, added to this, will be more useful. (In fact, some of you may have noticed, that while this graph is fun, there are major violations going on here statistically … which is why there is no R-squared or p value being given!)

I’ve changed the Republican Party Line to be a third order polynomial for maximum absurdity.

See this post for a more sophisticated analysis that, while it does not predict a winner in this race, does provide information supporting the idea that the Republicans cheated. As usual.


  1. #1 llewelly
    November 23, 2008

    Shows your trend line is unstable, and your polynomial fit is completely wacked out. As anyone would expect from a miserly 4 points.

  2. #2 Albatross
    November 23, 2008

    I object to your comment that the Republicans “cheated.” By challenging an unreasonably large number of votes, the Republicans are attempting to undermine the validity of those votes – they will later assert that the Committee’s interpretations are subjective and not valid. Therefore they Republicans are “cheating,” present tense.

  3. #3 Greg Laden
    November 23, 2008

    Albatros: Or maybe they have not actually cheated yet.

  4. #4 Albatross
    November 24, 2008

    Republicans ala John Paul Jones:
    “We have not yet begun to cheat!”