And the worst case scenario is that this lead could drop by far less then necessary to turn the race around.
Everyone assumes that the loser, in this case Coleman, will file a law suit. It would fit with how the game has been played so far. But what would such a law suit do? It is not the case that there is some 300 votes laying around that Coleman could have if he won a suit. The best he could probably do, and this is very unlikely, is to get about 130 votes that may or may not have been double counted thrown out. Not enough.
The other thing Coleman could do with a law suit is to end his political career in Minnesota. It is now Obvious that Franken has won this race. If Coleman files a law suit, which he would have to do within seven days of the certification of the election (expected Monday), and the suit was heard by the State Supreme court (which it may well not be), then there would be a period of several (three or four) weeks during which time Coleman would be increasingly seen as not really caring about democracy. This, of course, would be happening as the other shoe drops on Coleman’s political career.
What might that other shoe be? Oh I don’t know …. it could be the FBI investigation that is currently under way. It could be one of the waitresses he fondled in some down town restaurant while getting drunk with his friends. Who know, it could even be his wife, tired of his philandering, walking out on him. I mean, after all, what does she have to gain by sticking with this turncoat loser?
The best case scenario is that Coleman simply admits he lost. Then it is over and we get on with having a democratic system and Minnesota is represented, as it should be, by two senators.
The worst case scenario is that Coleman forces the final decision to be dragged out by a month or two and then, likely, loses anyway. In a certain way, although that would be difficult for everyone, it could be the best scenario because it would certainly terminate, forever, his (Coleman’s) career.
Up until this point, the recount process has been well controlled and fair. I think it will continue to be so. It is not really the case, as we often hear from the press, that this can be held up on court forever, if the court simply refuses to be used as a political tool. Coleman has laid the groundwork for a suit, but he has also pissed off the SC justices sufficiently that he hs going to have to have a very strong argument to continue this process.
I expect the following to happen:
1) Monday, the Canvassing Board certifies the election, Franken is the winner.
2) Later that day, Coleman issues a concession statement in writing.
2) Tuesday AM Coleman files suit.
3) Tuesday PM the Minnesota Supreme Court refuses the suit.