… Or not .

And if not, and if this keeps going for, say, a total of one year, this is what we can expect:

That animation is from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa.

The possible spread of the oil spill from the Deepwater Horizon rig over the course of one year was studied in a series of computer simulations by a team of researchers from the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.

Eight million buoyant particles were released continuously from April 20 to September 17, 2010, at the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig. The release occurred in ocean flow data from simulations conducted with the high-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator (OFES). “The paths of the particles were calculated in 8 typical OFES years over 360 days from the beginning of the spill,” says Fabian Schloesser, a PhD student from the Department of Oceanography in SOEST, who worked on these simulations with Axel Timmermann and Oliver Elison Timm from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), also in SOEST. “From these 8 typical years, 5 were selected to create an animation for which the calculated extent of the spill best matches current observational estimates.”

Read the rest here.

Comments

  1. #1 Tex
    July 11, 2010

    If you think Madoff ran a huge scam, Amway has ripped off millions of people for several decades, to the tune of 10s of billions of dollars.

    Read about it on this website: http://thenetprofitgroup.yolasite.com and forward the information to everyone you know, so they don’t get scammed.

    Amway is a scam, and here’s why: Amway pays out as little money as they can get away with, so they support the higher level IBOs ripping off their downline via the tool scam.

    As a result, about 99% of IBOs operate at a net loss, while the top 1% make several TIMES more from their Amway tool scam than from the Amway products. This was made illegal in the UK in 2008, but our FTC is unable to pull their heads out of their butts to stop it here.

  2. #2 Paladin
    July 12, 2010

    That’s why i come to this blog: there always are interesting comments.

  3. #3 Greg Laden
    July 12, 2010

    WTF?

  4. #4 Dave
    July 12, 2010

    As I understand the simulation, they assumed the spill would continue from April to September rather than a full year. The effects of the oil from the 5 month release of oil would eventually be dispersed along the eastern seaboard and Atlantic over the course of a year. September is actually a fairly realistic estimate when the well will be capped using the two relief wells. The chances they will cap the well today is about as high as the likelihood BP will go a day without making deceptive claims and telling outright lies.

  5. #5 Greg Laden
    July 12, 2010

    Dave, thanks for the clarification, I believe you are correct. And, of course, what this means (as you say) is that the scenario depicted here ia not especially unlikely.

  6. #6 rob
    July 12, 2010

    better fly down to florida and do some scuba diving RIGHT NOW or miss your chance.

  7. #7 casey
    July 13, 2010

    Greg,

    I bit and checked out what that comment @1 is and that’s just spam/irrelevant self promotion.

    It’s just a person who is involved in Amway who is complaining that it is not fair. I think it’s pretty safe to delete.

    In other news, thanks for this post, it was really informative, and actually quite frightening. Somehow I think that as the problem drifts ever closer to the wealthy areas of the east coast we’ll see ever increasing speed in dealing with this issue.

Current ye@r *