Despite rather bizarre rumors to the contrary, Earl was never headed straight for Haiti, but it is a large and strong hurricane, and strong tropical force winds are affecting and will continue to affect the northern regions of the island.

Earl is now a Category Four hurricane and will remain so for the next few days, possibly strengthening tomorrow morning following what looks like an eye-wall replacement cycle.

UPDATE: Earl is sitill a Category Four storm.
There is now a watch for North of Surf City , North Carolina to the NC/Virginia Border, and a Tropical Storm Watch from Cape Fear to Surf City.

At present, there is a non-trivial chance that hurricane force winds from this large storm will graze North Carolina and points north in the US beginning as soon as early afternoon Thursday. As it dissipates, Earl will come close to or overrun New Brunswick and/or Nova Scotia. Presumably, the storm will be an extra-topical tropical storm (as it were) by then, but that’s a long way off and it is difficult to predict.

Fiona, as predicted, is a tropical storm and is located due east of the Lesser Antilles. Fiona is not a strong storm and has a nearly 100% chance of weakening and dissipating before turning into a hurricane.

There is some other activity off of the coast of Africa, but nothing to write home about yet.

I’m looking at a disturbance on the southeast border of Mauritania and central Mali. I like it for the next numbered depression. I’ll give it a one in five chance of being named Gaston.

Info from the NHC

Comments

  1. #1 Piccamo
    August 31, 2010

    So…would you say it’s an Earlicane?

  2. #2 Eric Lund
    August 31, 2010

    And with the 5PM (21Z) advisory, the NHC has issued a hurricane watch for part of the NC coast. Forecast track has Earl just missing Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod on its way to landfall in Nova Scotia, but a New England landfall isn’t discounted. They are showing a nonzero probability of hurricane force winds in Concord, NH, which is about 40 miles inland.

  3. #3 UPDATED
    August 31, 2010

    see updated text

  4. #4 Fresno Accountant
    September 2, 2010

    Earl sounds like quite the monster..wish all in it’s path safety.

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