This afternoon, the National Hurricane Prediction Center is using terms like "struggling to maintain its identity," "elongated area of low pressure," "losing definition," "motion is uncertain," "little change in philosophy," "cold," "guidance becomes divergent," "forecast is problematic," "the cyclone needs to survive its current state of disorganization," "if," "if," and .... "if."
If only. Alas, we must prepare to say to Tomas, "Adieu.... did we really waste a name on you?"
Or, it could turn into a hurricane in about three days. I'll keep you posted.
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Alas, we must prepare to say to Tomas, "Adieu.... did we really waste a name on you?"
A day or two ago Jeff Masters pointed out that the name Tomas may well be retired due to the destruction in St. Lucia, which took the full force of Tomas's northern eyewall. At the time Tomas was near the Cat 1/Cat 2 border in strength. So we didn't waste a name, even if the storm dissipates. OTOH, I really wouldn't want to be in Haiti (even more so than usual) after tomorrow morning. Some of the models predict that Tomas (or the remnants thereof) will stall out just north of Haiti, and remember that in Haiti flooding is the main danger.