Live Blogging Election 2012

I’ll be jotting notes here. Feel free to jot notes in the comments.

Bernie Sanders re-elected

6:22 PM Central: Virginia reporting good numbers for Obama. Larger turnouts than 2008 in VA.

6:54 PM Central: Senate: 30 DEM seats called, 37 GOP seats.

Leaving the polling place today, there was a couple behind me. She said, “Well, that didn’t take long.” He said “And it was easy. I have a system.” “What’s the system.” “If the person is an incumbent, I don’t vote for them.”

Then, me, in my head “… idiot …”

More money spent this year in Minnesota’s 8th district than in all races in that district ever to date, combined, including mayorial, county, and EVERYTHING and we are only slightly exaggerating. That’s up on the Iron Range.

West Va called for Romney

Republicans lose about 1.7% of the vote every presidential election year because they are the white party and that’s the loss rate of whiteosity in the US.

Current Electoral Vote: Romney 153, Obama 123

Called Races:
OBAMA 79
Vermont CALLED Obama
DC CALLED Obama
Illinous CALLED Obama
Maine CALLED Obama
Maryland CALLED Obama
Massachusetts CALLED Obama
Connecticut CALLED Obama
Delaware CALLED Obama
Rhode Island CALLED Obama
New Jersey CALLED Obama
New York CALLED Obama
Michigan CALLED Obama

ROMNEY 82
Georgia CALLED Romney
Indiana CALLED Romney
Kentucky CALLED Romney
South Carolina CALLED Romney
West Virginia CALLED Romney
Oklahoma CALLED Romney
Alabama CALLED Romney
Mississippi CALLED Romney
Tennessee CALLED Romney
Arkansas CALLED Romney
Texas CALLED Romney
Lousiana CALLED Romney
Kansas CALLED Romney
Nebraska CALLED Romney
North Dakota CALLED Romney
South Dakota CALLED Romney
Wyoming CALLED Romney

Leaning/Trending:
Florida: Leaning Obama
New Hampshire: Leaning Obama
North Carolina Obama
Ohio, less than one percent, Romney doing STRONG
Virginia, Romney ahead

I actually don’t like states being called at 1 percent or less of the vote counted, even if those states are almost certainly going to go a certain way. Makes a mockery of the system. I suppose not doing it would make a mockery of statistics.

Which reminds me of an argument I had today with a young man who does not understand data or statistics or inference or anything. Imagine the following situation: My neighbor goes out into his yard every now and then and mows his lawn. I make the assertion to you that I believe that he does so when he thinks his grass is too long and needs to be cut. Now, here’s the question: What is the chance that it is true that he really does believe his grass is too long and this is what motivates him to cut it? Now, alternatively, I tell you that I went over to him while he was mowing the lawn and asked him why he was doing that. I report to you that he said “The grass got long, that’s why I’m cutting it.”

Now, here’s the question: Do you think he belived the grass was too long in either of these cases? How mush stock would you put in my guess regarding his motivations, vs my reporting to you what he said his motivation was.

The young man insisted that my guess as to my neighbor’s motivation was totally unusable as data, there were thousands of alternative reasons he might be mowing his lawn, and my assumption that he is cutting his lawn becauase he believes it to be too long is “confirmation bias.” Meanwhile, he claimed that reporting the man’s answer to the question about his motivation was solid unquestioned data about his motivations. What do you think?

OK, back to Election 2012!

7:00 PM Central PBS coverage is starting.

15 states are closed. I’ll put the new results above

PBS says they have a very nifty “multichannel” live stream thingie. But, everhone on the planet just tried to access it and it appears to be dead.

BIGGEST current news, Virginia extended poll hours, turnout HUGE, reporting delayed.
OTHER BIGGEST CURRENT NEWS Ohio early voting will be reported at 8:30 local

2 out of 5 Romney supporters, generally, in the polling over recent months supported Romney mainly to beat Obama (the black guy) not to support Romney.

7:20 PM CENTRAL Bill Nelson won in Florida for Senate, the Republicans were hoping to take that but didn’t. But overall the Senate race data isn’t interesting yet. The guy running against Nelson did not do well because he did not run well. (Nelson had replaced Katherine Harris, if you want to beak out in a cold sweat)

7:40 Chris Murphey, Dem, beats McMahon in Connecticut for Senate. That was a competitive race. That was earlier Lieberman’s seat, so this is sort of a Dem pickup.

Exit polls in Ohio: People favor auto bailout.

Virginia: Voter turnout is AMAZING … some people waited five hours to vote. The board of election had delayed release of results. People are still in line nearly two hours after polls closed. Maybe.

8:00 North Carolina, too close to call, could go either way. Romney always claimed a lock, maybe not.

8:10 PM Central … Missouri Senate … Remember Senator Legitimate Rape Guy Aitkin? Hmmm. thought there was going to be some reporting on that but I’m only seeing wild speculation. This might force me to tell you my one Missouri story….. but prob. not.

Competitive Penn Dem Senate race, Republicans had hopes for, goes Dem.

CBS News projects that the Republicans will maintain control of the house.

Obama gets Pennsylvania!!!

8:25 PM

Senate races: Pennsylvania, Bob Casey returns
Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Dem incumbant
Amy Klobuchar wins by a huge landside
Kirsten Gillibrand wins, incumbant Dem.
Ted Teapartier Kruz Republican, new senator, replacing a Democratic woman, I think.

8:30
Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio.

8:40PM Central
Romney must get some combination of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. I like maybe all three. Not looking good. He’s still winning, though.

Elizabeth Warren wins in Massachusetts. FUCK YAH TEDDY!!!!

Joe Kennedy III to the HOuse from Mass

Romney lost in MA, where he was gov. He lost in Mich, where he is from and his dad was gov.Now, he lost NH, home of his vacation home

And now, for some state and local results… maybe …

Oh never mind. No results.

9:55 We’ve got about 13 percent of the votes counted in Minnesota with a lot of conservative counties not represented yet, but the two constitutional amendments … gay marriage and voter ID … are not doing well. They are both showing a less than 50% result (needed to be passed) and are actually being voted down by a majority that is voting “No”

Also, North Carolina just called for Romney

Obama wins California, Hawaii,

10:14: Obama has been called as winner by CNN. On PBS, however, they won’t interrupt an interview with R.E. to celebrate. Strange.

Comments

  1. #1 Poll watcher
    November 6, 2012

    Projections have now been cast.

    Obama gets Vermont .

    Romney gets Kentucky and Indiana.

    http://www.marketwatch.com has some good house and senate results as well. So far we are still in the red for the congress.

  2. #2 Iain Davidson
    Australia
    November 6, 2012

    The bloke leaving your polling place sounds like someone who changes their Lotto numbers to be different from last week’s draw because the same numbers would not come up two weeks in a row.
    The rhetoric about how awful Government is is really pernicious and something needs to be done to persuade people that it does not need to be as appalling as the Republicans have made it.

  3. #3 Kat
    November 6, 2012

    Is that really true about the 1.7% of whiteosity loss correlating with the same Republican losses?

  4. #4 Poll Watcher
    November 6, 2012

    An interesting turn of events. A left winger in Detroit pulled a gun on a Republican poll watcher. Correct me if I am wrong, but aren’t Democrats supposed to be anti-gun? Then again that Republican, according to liberals, should be an angry white gun weilding tyrant who shoots people when threatened right? Hmmm. I guess this case just about sums up that made up stereotype.

    FoX News is running the story about the anti-gun democrat who pulled a gun on a Republican poll watcher. I hope the NRA gets wind of this. That could make an interesting magazine article not to mention a great FUNd raiser.

  5. #5 Greg Laden
    November 6, 2012

    A right winger left a dead cat in a guy’s mail box yesterday, here in my neighborhood. REPUBLICANS KILL TEH KITTY CATS so don’t tell me about that.

  6. #6 Greg Laden
    November 6, 2012

    Kat, they said it on TV so it must be true.

  7. #7 Kat
    November 6, 2012

    Of course! Wouldn’t surprise me, though. (in a depressing sort of way). And as for Kitteh killing….well…. that makes me an angry Kat. Killing cats is despicable.

  8. #8 Poll Watcher
    November 6, 2012

    Greg how do you know it was a right winger who left a puddy tat in your mailbox? Did you see him/her? Did they sign their name? Leave a note? Perhaps it was a disgruntled student? Can you prove it was a right winger?

    I am a right winger and have never killed a cat or left anything like that in someone else’s mailbox. I would never do such a thing.

    During an Occupy rally a stupid kid took a crap on a cop car. That is an action deserving a taser in my book. At the very least, 30 days in jail washing and waxing police cars.

    I would never stoop so low as to kill an animal to make a political point though. The highest I would ever go would be to spray fart spray in their locker or their car. If there was already a dead animal (skunk on the road) I might be tempted to utilize the situation, but I would never kill a cat and put it in somone’s mailbox. If this was a rightwinger who done this to you Greg, then he deserves a kick in the butt at the very least. There is no excuse for this behavior from right or left.

  9. #9 Greg Laden
    November 6, 2012

    Poll, it was the same person who had been stealing Vote No lawn signs.

    Kat: It is possible that the cat was road kill. I haven’t heard.

  10. #10 Poll Watcher
    November 6, 2012

    Sign stealers are bad too.

    Then again left wingers kept stealing crosses off of the Mt. Soledad memorial so I guess they can’t call anyone sign stealers.

    I think there have been sign stealers on both sides. I generally leave signs alone on personal property becuase around my place getting caught on somone’s lawn stealing something can mean a trip to the coroner becuase these rednecks around here tend to shoot first and ask questions later. It’s not safe for theives around my neighborhood.

    I just wish both sides would stop stealing each others signs and petty stuff like that. It’s downright silly.

  11. #11 Kat
    November 6, 2012

    Ya, I doubt (hope) that the cat was killed by the person. Otherwise I think they had a major mental illness. But still, the idea of stuffing a mailbox with a dead kitty…..it’s morbid and insulting and just wrong.

  12. #12 Greg Laden
    November 6, 2012

    We have zero reports in Mn of vandalism on Yes signs, hundreds of reports of vandalism on No signs.

  13. #13 Greg Laden
    November 6, 2012

    I should add, in many cases, the vandalism is serial… not just pulling up a sign, but harassing the people with the sign for weeks on end.

  14. #14 Kat
    November 6, 2012

    Wow. Just wow. Reminds me. When I put a ‘Recall Walker’ bumper sticker on my car…literally the next day while I was in Trader Joe’s, someone slapped a pro-Walker sticker over it..on MY CAR. The nerve.

    And pulling signs…Jesus says no stealing…..that’s in the Ten Commandments. And they say gay marriage is wrong..

  15. #15 Poll Watcher
    November 6, 2012

    Looks like we are about to have a permannet resident of the whitehouse. Looks like Obama is about to win. I suppose I need to start looking for that cave with an underground civilization in it. Looks like the last free nation on earth is about to be a thrid world nation.

    Let’s face it. If Obama wins this time, we are stuck with him for life. He will never leave office. Congress will amend the constitution to keep him in permanently. Suddenly I feel very cuban.

    Maybe the world will end on December 21. It’s the best we can hope for at this point. It’s all downhill from here.

  16. #16 Poll Watcher
    November 6, 2012

    gay marriage is wrong. It is condemned no less than three times in the Bible. Two in the New Testament and at least once in the Old Testament. Maybe more, but I’ll have to check and see. Three distict condemnations of it come to mind. Two of them in books written by Paul, the other in Genesis.

    When God created man, he also ceated a mate for man which was a woman. That was the intention. Family. Husband and wife. If God had created every animal on the planet of the same gender we would al be extinct by now. Guess evolutionists do not consider the possiblity of animals going extinct when only one gender exists. I suppose we would have “evolved” to slit in two or something eh?

  17. #17 Poll Watcher
    November 6, 2012

    The gay marriage vote has failed in almost every state that it has been voted for in.That only means one thing. The majority of people do not want it. So, if this is a real democracy, the people’s voice wins right?

  18. #18 Greg Laden
    November 6, 2012

    Minnesota Gay Marriage Amendment: Yes 368610 No 425917 with 25% counted. It can’t win. This is #TRULY HISTORIC

  19. #19 lyle
    November 6, 2012

    Just to be clear it was Kay Bailey Hutchinson, a woman republican who was replaced by Ted Cruze who is in the Rand Paul mode.

  20. #20 sailor
    November 7, 2012

    Poll watcher you are talking batshit crazy. Obama may not be president for a third term and no left wing crazy fantasy is going to change that.
    Furthermore for all your misgivings about gay marriage it is being accepted in more and more states – two have just passed it by popular vote.
    Quoting the bible in support of your arguments is not very smart. If we were to use that book as authority women who are not virgins at the time of their marriage would be stoned, you could sell your daughter, rapists can marry their victims against their will, and slavery is just fine.

  21. #21 Eric Lund
    November 7, 2012

    @Poll Watcher: There were initiatives in ME, MD, and WA to legalize gay marriage. The first two passed, and the third was leading last I checked.

    Results from my state of New Hampshire: Carol Shea-Porter and Ann Kuster (both Democrats) won the Congressional seats (both are D pickups), giving us an all-female Congressional delegation (our senators are Jeanne Shaheen [D] and Kelly Ayotte [R], neither of whom were up for reelection this year). We will also have a female governor, Maggie Hassan. Democrats retake the state House, and the state Senate will be evenly divided (Republicans had veto-proof majorities in both chambers). Amendments to enshrine our lack of income tax in the state Constitution and to subordinate the courts to the Legislature failed.

  22. #22 Poll Watcher
    November 7, 2012

    sailor,

    Just becuase people vote for something does not mean that it is morrlay right. The “slavery” in the Bible that you speak of was the same way. It was popular for rich people to own slaves. Was it right just becuse the people said it was?

    Sure. If we use your books, we are nothing but apes walking around evolving and voting. I am nore than that. I am sovereign man CREATED by a God who alone gives me rights.

    I don’t care if every state in the unon votes for gay marriage and then startes humping each others dog, some of us will NEVER accept it. Oh and churches who accept it have names. They are called apostates and they will be punished in the afterlife for their treason. I bring a message to church members: If you pastor utters one word in support of gay marriage or starts talking about global warming, FIRE HIM immediately and gather in ameeting to vote saying that the church will banish those who accept evolution, global warming and homosexuality. Church doctrine strictly prohibits the use of of satanic inspired values. That should insure that we keep the preachers who are serious about good versus evil seperate from those who conform to the ways of the world. If the church council will not fire him, then you retain the right to either leave or permanently withold funds. That should get some action.