I needed a copy of the “False Hope Graph” that Michael Mann painstakingly created for his Scientific American piece “Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036” for a presentation I’m doing, but it had to be simpler, leave some stuff off, and be readable across the room on a screen. The original graphic looks like this:
earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036_large (1)

It is a major contribution showing the relationship between climate sensitivity and climate change in the future depending on various important factors. The graphic I made from it is here (click on it to get the big giant version):

MannGraphic_2014

You’ll notice I left only one sensitivity + aerosol forcing line on it because in my talk I’ll use that as the most likely. Some of you might find it helpful.

Comments

  1. #1 G
    April 10, 2014

    What makes that graph so utterly tragic, and also the biggest moral issue humanity will have faced for most of its existence, is that we have had more than ample warning, and the steps needed to fix it are wholly within the grasp of currently-existing technologies. Truly this is a Darwin Test for our species.

  2. #2 double helix
    USA
    April 10, 2014

    Unfortunately, a relative handful of intelligent humans, of the 7 billion humans on our benighted planet, seem unable to alter the course of the rest of them. This is Evolution writ large. Humans have evolved Cognitive Dissonance and related cognition deficiencies. Unless an individual is properly taught to achieve “self-awareness,” a human individual will prefer anecdotal “evidence” to scientific data. Then there are the Magic-believers (the majority) who trust an invisible deity to make everything OK. That’s not gonna happen! Apparently, the race to sea-level rise will not slow down, barring some accidental good luck on Planet Earth’s part. Perhaps the “relative handful,” instead of trying to save all humans, should self-identify and start a movement to save themselves. Hmm. That might not go over well… Think of the bad press: “The Sun reports that eggheads plan to throw the hoi-polloi to the wolves and save themselves…”

  3. #3 Smarter Than Your Average Bear
    April 10, 2014

    Think of the bad press: “The Sun reports that eggheads plan to throw the hoi-polloi to the wolves and save themselves…”

    Well that could have a good effect of making the hoi polloi demand to be saved along with them :) (forgetting that they had been denouncing the need for saving all a long)