The NASA GISS global surface measurement for September is out. I don’t know off hand if there are corrections for earlier months. The data for September show the month as the same as the earlier month, 0.81 degrees C anomaly.

The current best estimate of the warming of the Earth’s surface from anthropogenic global warming, using the NASA data and a 12 month running mean, looks like this:

giss_12-month_moving_average

Looking at just the first months of the year (for each year) to estimate the position of the present year as a record breaker (or not) we get this:

giss_FirstMonthsOnly
Word on the street is that the present month, October, is very warm. I don’t think October 2015 is going to end up being the warmest month on record, but I think it is likely to be in the top few ever. Given that, and the nearness to the end of the year, it is now extremely likely that 2015 will be the warmest year of the instrumental record.

See also this different way of depicting year to date warming.

The two graphs above will be available on the X Blog where you can download a higher resolution version.

Comments

  1. #1 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    October 12, 2015

    I wonder why not even one of the more than 3,000 deniers I offered my US$1,000 wager to would take it. It’s almost as if they didn’t really believe their claims that Earth isn’t warming.

  2. #2 SteveP
    USA! USA! USA!
    October 12, 2015

    I just had an opportunity to speak with my US Congressman for a few minutes and I asked him if the Republicans who were anti climate change really believed that there was no climate change taking place. He said that many are simply looking over their shoulder to see what the Koch brothers want them to say, because that is where they got their “resources”, i.e., cash. Others, like in the Freedumb Caucus, actually have drunk the koolaid and think that there is no cooling taking place.

    We have a lot of work to do people. More tonight.

  3. #3 Brainstorms
    October 12, 2015

    Um, Others, like in the Freedumb Caucus, actually have drunk the koolaid and think that there is no warming taking place.

    But they probably will also assure you that there is no koolaid taking place, either.

    Wrong on both counts…

  4. #4 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    October 12, 2015

    “I just had an opportunity to speak with my US Congressman for a few minutes and I asked him if the Republicans who were anti climate change really believed that there was no climate change taking place. He said that many are simply looking over their shoulder to see what the Koch brothers want them to say, because that is where they got their “resources”, i.e., cash. Others, like in the Freedumb Caucus, actually have drunk the koolaid and think that there is no cooling taking place.”

    Looking at the campaign data so far, less than 200 families have donated more than half of the money the “GOP” candidates have received for the year 2016 election. This is why the divisive “citizens united” crime against us needs to end.

    The previous governor of New Mexico (Bill Richardson) visited me at the ranch where I live and work, and we discussed the dead and dying low-altitude pinyon pine forests here (climate division two). His official governor web site included plans on mitigating against and adapting to climate change, but he pointed out that the governor could do almost nothing since the state is extremely poor.

    When the current governor took over the web site, all mention of climate change was removed— the *ONLY* mention of the word “climate” on her web site is used in the phrase “… promotes a climate of economic prosperity ….”

    I asked Governor Martinez, via The Santa Fe New Mexican, if she accepts the fact that climate change has happened and is happening. Her office replied “Protecting the environment is very important.”

  5. #5 Brainstorms
    October 12, 2015

    …as in “Protecting the environment of economic prosperity is very important.

    Short-term economic prosperity, obviously. (Goes with being short-sighted. And short of morals.)

  6. #6 catfiend
    October 12, 2015

    The vertical axis should be labeled degrees C*100.

    The religion of will: the strange belief that if you are simply stubborn enough, reality will morph to your liking.

  7. #7 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    October 12, 2015

    “Short-term economic prosperity, obviously. (Goes with being short-sighted. And short of morals.)”

    No morals and no ethics. She tried to prevent Athabaskans, Towas, Tewas, and others from voting until after they learned English; considering those were the dominant languages here in New Mexico, Arizona, and elsewhere for over 800 years, that’s pretty amusing.

  8. #8 Greg Laden
    October 12, 2015

    Catfiend, you are correct about the axes. I’ll fix that. Your other reference is obscure and I have no idea what that means.

  9. #9 Brainstorms
    October 12, 2015

    The religion of will: the strange belief that if you are simply stubborn enough, reality will morph to your liking.

    Core belief system of deniers…

  10. #10 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    October 12, 2015


    The religion of will: the strange belief that if you are simply stubborn enough, reality will morph to your liking.

    Core belief system of deniers….


    The core belief of the deniers of the evidence for human-caused climate change is “The invisible hand of the free market is self-correcting, so there is no need for government regulations to correct the free market failure, therefore human-caused climate change is not happening.”

    As for “The religion of will….” yeah, I’ve no idea either.

  11. #11 climatehawk1
    October 12, 2015

    “invisible hand of the free market … ” Take a bow, Ronald Reagan. After the energy shocks of the 1970s, Congress passed legislation requiring the Administration to produce a National Energy Plan and update it annually. The first edition under Reagan started by saying that the free market would decide the proper amount of oil for the U.S. to be importing–in other words, we’re outsourcing our national energy security to the global oil markets. The current crap about the free market fixing climate change is just a lineal descendant.

  12. #12 SteveP
    Somewhere in North America
    October 12, 2015

    Not sure what the “religion of will” thing is about… maybe its about believing that you can influence outcomes or even create them by visualizing them?( e.g. praying really really hard ). There is a lot of interesting stuff available about choosing your future by visualizing it… kind of action at a distance sort of stuff… stuff that suggests that maybe we can influence the multiverse we end up in by visualizing it
    ( ha ha….).

    But aside from that fanciful Sci-Fi interpretation, just on a very practical level, one is more likely to end up where they want to be by visualizing it. Just about every action we willfully do works that way, doesn’t it?

    So back to practical things. We need to find a way to defeat the Freedumb Circus/ Caucus, as well as the Koch owned representatives who presently pollute our government and planet. I think that they are a target completely worthy of being politically attacked and, hopefully, politically destroyed. They portray themselves as freedom lovers, when, in reality, they are the stooges and puppets of the worst elements of our society, namely idiots and psychopaths with power and with limited capacity to understand anything beyond power and greed. These guys are a major threat to democracy.

    How do we attack them? I suggest that we learn as much as possible about them, try to find as much as possible about their supporters, funders, sponsors, etc., find their vulnerable underbelly, and, then conceptualize and actualize a consolidated process for removing these assholes from government…, and then make sure that we keep them out. They are tumors that need to be excised.

    More tomorrow..

  13. […] Continues Upward Trend in Global Temperatures. Here’s an excerpt of a post from Greg Laden at scienceblogs.com: “The NASA GISS global surface measurement for September is out. I don’t know off hand if […]

  14. #14 Antoni Jaume
    Terrassa, near to Barcelona.
    October 13, 2015

    I think religion of will is what others call green lanternism.

  15. […] But the NASA data makes clear we’ve already blown past the “hottest 12 months” on record. Here’s the 12-month moving average since 1880 (via Greg Laden): […]

  16. […] But the NASA data makes clear we’ve already blown past the “hottest 12 months” on record. Here’s the 12-month moving average since 1880 (via Greg Laden): […]

  17. #17 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    October 13, 2015

    ““invisible hand of the free market … ” Take a bow, Ronald Reagan. After the energy shocks of the 1970s, Congress passed legislation requiring the Administration to produce a National Energy Plan and update it annually. The first edition under Reagan started by saying that the free market would decide the proper amount of oil for the U.S. to be importing–in other words, we’re outsourcing our national energy security to the global oil markets. The current crap about the free market fixing climate change is just a lineal descendant.”

    I read Alan Greenspan’s latest book, where he took the blame (his word was “credit”) for distributing wealth from the people who created it “upward” to the parasitic wealthy— what he called “supply side economics.” That book was published six days before the Bush2 Recession slammed into the stock market.

    Greenspan’s meta theme was that letting people keep more of the wealth they create is bad for the economy because they will horde the excess that they don’t need to spend on food, shelter, clothing, and transportation. A healthy economy is one where the people who create the wealth are allowed to keep just enough to keep them below the ability to meed their basic, minimal needs: it makes them produce more wealth longer, harder, for less money.

    His other meta theme is that letting demand drive the economy is a strategy that leads to economic stagnation: once people have what they need, they stop buying and the economy crashes. The way to prevent that is to produce far more shit to buy than what people need or want, then convince people they need to buy it.

    The problems are, of course, #1 both meta themes cancel each other out, and #2 both assertions are false. Both meta themes are designed to move wealth “upward,” away from the people who created it, and to the people who control it. Greenspan was pro-regulations, but only when regulations were applied to his business competition; he blamed the failure of his ideas to “government interference:” if only the government would stop messing up the free market, his “supply side economics” voodoo would have worked.

  18. […] Continues Upward Trend in Global Temperatures. Here’s an excerpt of a post from Greg Laden at scienceblogs.com: “The NASA GISS global surface measurement for September is out. I don’t know off hand if […]

  19. #19 cce
    October 14, 2015

    I think your first graph has the older ERSST V3b ocean.

  20. […] But the NASA data makes clear we’ve already blown past the “hottest 12 months” on record. Here’s the 12-month moving average since 1880 (via Greg Laden): […]

  21. #21 Not_Man_Made
    Los Angeles, California
    October 17, 2015

    The climate models used by alarmist scientists to predict global warming are getting worse, not better; carbon dioxide does far more good than harm; and President Obama has backed the “wrong side” in the war on “climate change.”

    –Dr Freeman Dyson

  22. #22 Desertphile
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    October 18, 2015

    “The climate models used by alarmist scientists to predict global warming are getting worse, not better….”

    In fact they are so bad (see Monckton’s, for example) they aren’t even models.

  23. #23 dean
    October 18, 2015

    nmm, do you have any quote like that from a scientist who actually studies climate science, or are they all from people who are as uninformed as you?

  24. #24 Brainstorms
    October 18, 2015

    You know your conspiracy alarmism is losing traction when …

  25. #25 StevoR
    Adelaide hills, South Australia
    October 18, 2015

    Thanks for these monthly updates, Greg Laden. I always find them informative and interesting and they are very much appreciated.

  26. […] few days ago, NASA released it’s GISS TEMP global surface temperature data showing that in that data set Sep…, with the same value as August (which was also warm). At least one science denier has told me that […]

  27. #27 Sajal Roy
    Bangladesh
    November 13, 2015

    The consequences of global warming can no longer be ignored. Islands are sinking into the sea .thee entire world knows the disaster to be caused by global warming.
    As the sea level continues to rise,many countries including Bangladesh face the prospect of partially or fully disappearing into the sea,the prospect of Bangladesh losing 20 percent of it’s islands would spell disaster for at least 20 percent of it’s over 150 million people.to