Hurricane

Category archives for Hurricane

Hurricane Maria

As you already know, Hurricane Maria is a Category 5 storm menacing the Leewards, and heading, likely, for Puerto Rico. Please avoid making the mistakes that were made in talking about Irma. There will probably be no Category 5 storm hitting Puerto Rico. The storm will probably be a Category 4 before it hits. So,…

Three statisticians go hunting for rabbit. They see a rabbit. The first statistician fires and misses, her bullet striking the ground below the beast. The second statistician fires and misses, their bullet striking a branch above the lagomorph. The third statistician, a lazy frequentist, says, “We got it!” OK, that joke was not 1/5th as…

UPDATE Sept 9, AM Note that tropical storm force winds may start hitting southern Florida around 1 or 2 PM today, Saturday, and will reach central Florida by about 8AM Sunday. The eye of the storm should be abreast southern Florida at around sunup on Sunday. The storm may remain a major hurricane as it…

Harvey the Hurricane will hit Texas roughly between Corpus Christi and Victoria (but stay tuned for exact details). Harvey is passing over water that is significantly warmer than usual, owing to global warming. This storm was too disorganized to even, under normal conditions, to have a name, just a day or so. But, when this…

UPDATE (Aug 30th) Irma is a new named storm in the Eastern Atlantic. See this post for details, eventually. UPDATE (Aug 29th) There is a system currently raining on Cabo Verde, off the West Coast of Africa (nee Cape Verde) that is expected to develop. It is on the verge of becoming a tropical depression.…

Hurricane Otto

This is a bit late in the year for an Atlantic Hurricane. The season normally runs from June 1st through November 30th, but that includes a bit of buffer time. Otto is a tropical storm that will turn into a hurricane on Wednesday, probably, and make landfal near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.…

Getting #Matthew Wrong

This morning I was forced to do the “get off my lawn” thing with the kids at the bus stop. They were systematically destroying the pavement around the common mailbox area down the street from my house, throwing chunks in the street. I lined them up and read them the riot act. They are children,…

Update Friday mid PM: Jacksonville Florida, storm surge has breached the dunes and is inundating the community: This just speaks for itself #JaxBeach #FCNStorm pic.twitter.com/KDzz4ycLot — Katie Jeffries (@Katie_Jeffries) October 7, 2016 Update Friday Mid Day: Matthew has stayed very close to its forecast track since arriving in the vicinity of Florida. But, instead of…

Tropical Storm Nicole

The 14th named storm has just appeared in the Atlantic. The average number of named storms in the Atlantic, based on a fairly long climatology, is about 10.1. An average of 5.9 become hurricanes. So, this year are more than average named storms. But is it more than predicted? On average, the expert forecasts suggested…

LATEST UPDATE IS HERE. CLICK HERE FOR LATEST UPDATE. Update: Wed Mid Day Matthew weakened, strengthened, strengthening Matthew has interacted with land masses in Hispaniola and Cuba to the extent that the storm weakened quite a bit, losing its temporary Category 5 status. But, now Matthew is already showing signs of strengthening, and is likely…