Severe weather

Category archives for Severe weather

The next named Atlantic storm will be Matthew. There is currently a well organized stormy blob in the Atlantic, heading for the Lesser Antilles, that has a very high probability of becoming a named storm, and that could happen by Wednesday or Thursday. This seems to be a fairly fast developing storm. Also, though it…

Boom: Julia; Karl?

Update (Mid day Wed): The disturbance in the eastern Atlantic is now a depression, and it is reasonably likely that it will be a named storm by mid day tomorrow, Thursday. The predictions for the next several days do not have this storm turning into a hurricane any time soon; it should remain a storm…

Wed AM Update: Meranti passed near the southern tip of Taiwan, and apparently it was pretty windy and nasty there. But, Taiwan has invested heavily in infrastructure with the idea of being hit with giant typhoons now and then, so things were not as bad as they could have been. apparently Meranti is now a…

Update: Mid Day Monday: Ian is no longer a glimmer in the eyes of NWS forecasters. Ian is now a tropical storm. However, Ian is about to head north over unfavorable waters, will likely never develop hurricane strength, and is not expected to hit anything big. (See map above.) Nothing else is really happening in…

Hurricanes are well defined systems with characteristics that quite literally set them apart from other storms. Large storms such as Nor’Easters are sometimes less well defined and interact more with major troughs, the jet streams, etc. We have come to understand Hurricanes as the worst case scenario, while other storms are less dangerous. But sometimes,…

Hermine more serene?

Update (Sunday PM): Hermine is still a big storm and will affect eastern regions to some degree, but the storm never reformed as a hurricane, and is not not expected to do so. Also, the storm has jinked out to the east more than expected and will likely move farther east. So, there will be…

For the latest post on Hermine GO HERE. Update Thursday PM Hermine has grown in strength, and may even make landfall as a Category 2 storm. At least a strong Category 1. The right front quadrant of the storm is where the main “punch” (of winds) is located. If the storm winds come into an…

Update (Noonish Friday): Lester is going to skim along to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. This is an estimate of the probability of the distribution of 50mph winds: Surf’s up, it will be stormy, but the significant threat is moderate. Update (Noonish Thursday): Madeline sort of hit Hawaii, but it also did a funny…

Original Post: The Atlantic storms are getting interesting. Two different systems are poised to become named storms, but it is not clear which one will be awarded the name Hermine, and which one Ian. If the storm recently near Cuba develops as expected, it could become a weak hurricane before making landfall along Florida’s Gulf…

A quick note about the current Atlantic hurricane season. With resect to just the US, we’ve had a fairly low level season, and it is easy to become complacent about this time, but in fact, the risks from Atlantic hurricanes rise about this time of year, so pay attention. Watch for Hermine. More on that…