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As you know, I’ve been running a model to predict the outcomes of upcoming Democratic Primary contests. The model has change over time, as described below, but has always been pretty accurate. Here, I present the final, last, ultimate version of the model, covering the final contests coming up in June. Why predict primaries and…

Sea levels are going to rise The amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere directly and indirectly determines the sea level. The more CO2 the higher the sea level. The details matter, the mechanism is complex, and as CO2 levels change, it takes an unknown amount of time for the sea level to catch…

Check out this picture of a cigar

Most people just see a horizontally oriented cigar (brown with grey ash) when they look at the picture below, but if you look closely you can also see what looks like a wall of red bricks behind the cigar! Yet another view:

I’ve got a new post up at 10,000 Birds on a study looking at changing populations of several hundred common species of birds in Europe and North America (mainly the US). The two subcontinents exhibit dramatically different patterns, as shown in the enigmatic graph above. Go to the post to unravel this intriguing mystery!

Two new anti-Trump ads

As Rachel points out, the first one is pretty conventional. The second one is a killer. Have a look:

I have not updated my model for predicting primary outcomes in the Democratic contest, but since the last few predictions were very accurate, I don’t feel the need to do so. However, I will before the California primary, just in case. Meanwhile, my model suggests the following for today’s primaries. Kentucky should be nearly a…

What happens if I swallow gum?

The story goes that if you do, it will stay in your digestive track for seven years. Is this true? According to the Mayo Clinic, Although chewing gum is designed to be chewed and not swallowed, it generally isn’t harmful if swallowed. Folklore suggests that swallowed gum sits in your stomach for seven years before…

Remember that big wild fire that threatened, and damaged, Fort MacMurray, causing major evacuation in the oil sands mining region of Canada? Well, the fire never went out and has now changed directions to threaten settlements again. __________ Update (mid day Tuesday): The fire is now actually burning some homes/buildings in Ft. McMurray. One of…

First, Sanders lost Nevada because Hillary Clinton won the caucus. Then, the Sanders campaign put their ground game into effect, in an effort to overtake Clinton during the nearly-unique-to-Nevada process that allows for changes in pledged delegates at later caucuses. But he didn’t get enough delegates to achieve that. The Sanders campaign does get credit…

How the Venus Flytrap Evolved

The trick to understanding evolution is less about finding good answer to questions, but rather, finding good questions to answer. Read that sentence twice, because it is very important. Years ago, Niko Tinbergen developed a method of formulating questions about biology. I’m pretty sure the Tinbergenian method has not been integrated into most science standards…