election 2016

Tag archives for election 2016

Since 1968, about 17 candidates ran in Democratic primary races and earned enough votes (above about 20% all told) to count as having been contenders. Of those, one was murdered, one was shot but lived, one was eliminated from competition by GOP dirty tricks, and one left the race because of insufficient support but would…

As you know, I’ve been running a model to predict the outcomes of upcoming Democratic Primary contests. The model has change over time, as described below, but has always been pretty accurate. Here, I present the final, last, ultimate version of the model, covering the final contests coming up in June. Why predict primaries and…

I have not updated my model for predicting primary outcomes in the Democratic contest, but since the last few predictions were very accurate, I don’t feel the need to do so. However, I will before the California primary, just in case. Meanwhile, my model suggests the following for today’s primaries. Kentucky should be nearly a…

First, Sanders lost Nevada because Hillary Clinton won the caucus. Then, the Sanders campaign put their ground game into effect, in an effort to overtake Clinton during the nearly-unique-to-Nevada process that allows for changes in pledged delegates at later caucuses. But he didn’t get enough delegates to achieve that. The Sanders campaign does get credit…

Bernie does not want his people to disrupt speeches. He’s OK with outside protests. He wants to do everything he can to stop Trump.

Beware Democratic Party Optimism

I’ve seen it said again and again that the Trump nomination will be a debacle for the Republicans. The Republican party will fall apart, become small, become insignificant. Clinton will easily crush trump. We’re done. Ding dong. But this is all wrong. The Republican Party is in power in more state houses than ever, and…

After the Primaries, What Next?

Donald Trump is now the presumed Republican candidate for President of the United States. Prior to Cruz and Kasich dropping out of the race, it was not 100% clear that Trump would achieve enough delegates to “lock” the convention, but he was vey close. I am not sure if Trump will be the only candidate…

We hear a lot about how the system is rigged against Sanders and in favor of Clinton. Such yammering is normal for a political campaign, but if you believe it, I’d love to sell you a nice bridge down near New York City. There are two things you need to know. First, the Sanders campaign,…

UPDATE May 26th 2016 Moments ago, Donald Trump’s delegate count effectively went above the number needed to guarantee the nomination at this summer’s Republican National Convention. As reported by NBC, “Donald Trump now has the support of 1,238 delegates — just a hair above the 1,237 threshold needed to clinch the Republican presidential nomination” UPDATED…

As you know, I’ve been applying a model to predict the outcome of each of the Democratic Primary contests, and have done pretty well at predicting results. All of the future contests are primaries, not caucuses. It turns out that the two modes have very different patterns. Many have suggested that this has to do…