I am not an expert in oil field engineering. But I can smell bullshit. So I am sad to confess that at this moment I am putting more faith in an anonymous poster at the Oil Drum whom I have never heard of before than I am in any mainstream reporting I have come across.
His lengthy and compelling comment is here. What he says makes sense to my untrained ears and at the very least the “supplementary material” he links to is very informative.
The synopsis goes something like this (from memory):
- the well is damaged below the sea floor
- erosion from oil and gas flowing outside the well casing will cause the blow out preventer to fall over
- this will further erode the silt and rock formation around the casing
- damage to the borehole will migrate downwards to the reserve
- if the happens, “bottom kill” will not work
Read the full comment for the how and why.
It seems that the worst case scenario is by no means unlikely, and it is something like 100,000 barrels of oil per day for some small number of years.
Does any one have any issues with what he is describing?
[Update: see comments and the offered link to an Oil Drum response to this comment.]