A Few Things Ill Considered

NSIDC has (preliminarily) announced the new record low ice extent for 2012.

On September 16, 2012 sea ice extent dropped to 3.41 million square kilometers (1.32 million square miles). This appears to have been the lowest extent of the year. In response to the setting sun and falling temperatures, ice extent will now climb through autumn and winter. However, a shift in wind patterns or a period of late season melt could still push the ice extent lower. The minimum extent was reached three days later than the 1979 to 2000 average minimum date of September 13.

This year’s minimum was 760,000 square kilometers (293,000 square miles) below the previous record minimum extent in the satellite record, which occurred on September 18, 2007.  This is an area about the size of the state of Texas. The September 2012 minimum was in turn 3.29 million square kilometers (1.27 million square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average minimum, representing an area nearly twice the size of the state of Alaska. This year’s minimum is 18% below 2007 and 49% below the 1979 to 2000 average.

Overall there was a loss of 11.83 million square kilometers (4.57 million square miles) of ice since the maximum extent occurred on March 20, 2012, which is the largest summer ice extent loss in the satellite record, more than one million square kilometers greater than in any previous year.

Read the rest for a fully analysis.  Expect the final review of this year’s stunning record low in early October, which will come along with an announcement of the lowest ever September average and the lowest ever monthly average in general.  Further ice retreat is still possible, but at this point it is less and less likely.

Tamino notes what it is that interests the “sceptics” more than this.

Another excerpt from NSIDC:

The six lowest seasonal minimum ice extents in the satellite record have all occurred in the last six years (2007 to 2012). In contrast to 2007, when climatic conditions (winds, clouds, air temperatures) favored summer ice loss, this year’s conditions were not as extreme. Summer temperatures across the Arctic were warmer than average, but cooler than in 2007.

Again, this is not weather, it is dramatic climate change.



  1. #1 mandas
    September 21, 2012

    But wait for next year.

    If the ice recovers slightly – which it may well do if we apply that false statistical analysis ‘technique’ of regression to the mean – then the deniers will be out in droves saying how arctic ice is recovering, therefore there is no global warming.

    Anyone want to bet against me?

  2. #2 Wow
    September 21, 2012

    Hell, they’re doing it already.

    Doesn’t stop others saying “Natural variability!” as if it’s some mystic mantra against reality…

  3. #3 Steven Earl Salmony
    Chapel Hill, NC
    September 21, 2012

    The children’s future is being determined right here, right now by the leading elders in my generation. How do you think we are doing? Too much talk? Too little behavior change? Too much arrogance. foolhardiness and greed? Too little……

  4. #4 Wow
    September 21, 2012

    Too much acceptance of the unacceptable.

    When it comes tied with someone who doesn’t want the US to control them, then the unacceptable is unacceptable. But the unacceptable coming tied with a change in the economy, taking it to new territories, then it is only unacceptable to reject the unaccpetable.

    Those comfy people are too comfy.

    And they hold all the cards.

  5. #5 kai
    September 21, 2012

    mandas, wow, and other climate cowards, do you dare to bet one hundred thousand US dollars that in 2013 the arctic sea ice extent will be less than this year’s minimum extension? stand to you religious believe, you cowards, and show that you are true courageous fellows of the hysterical global warming church

  6. #6 Wow
    September 21, 2012

    blah blah blah kai is out of class again.

  7. #7 kai
    September 22, 2012

    wow, is this the only thing you can say “bla bla bla bla …. bla bla bla i pray to al gore my heroe that i will get his blessing to be part of his climate church consensus?? poor guy without any talent and money, and bad looking too.

    do you dare do bet 100000 us$ for your religious belief that the arczic sea ice extent in 2013 wil be less than in 2012????

    can you please answer using other words than bla bla bla bla, you coward

  8. #8 Wow
    September 22, 2012


    However, since you never listen to a thing if it isn’t libertarian teabagger approved bollocks, why put more effort into it?

    You put none in yours.

  9. #9 exusian
    September 22, 2012

    When they use phrases like “hysterical global warming church” it is a tacit admission that they have no valid scientific argument to make.

    “Bla bla bla” is all the response kai warrants.

  10. #10 kai
    September 22, 2012

    exusian, you co2 hysteric are wrong: “When they use phrases like “hysterical global warming church” it is a tacit admission that they have no valid scientific argument to make”

    correct would be: “When they use phrases like “hysterical global warming church” then they really mean “hysterical global warming church”, basta.

  11. #11 Wow
    September 22, 2012

    Whenever kai posts, I always imagine the voice of Beaker from the muppets.

  12. #13 exusian
    September 23, 2012

    See, kai just validated my assertion quite nicely.

  13. #14 rafsistem
    September 25, 2012

    September 23, 1:38 am See, kai just validated my assertion quite nicely

  14. #15 kai
    September 27, 2012

    climate truth denialists here: arctic sea ice extent is increasing dramatically again, and will continue so, just for your infomation as you are so terribly poor informed, for the next 7 months, hahaha!!!

    you have again lost a climate battle, as always, and your collective depression, due to a complete lack of global warming, is well deserved