So, the bad news is that it is looking increasingly likely that the world will experience a very strong El Nino event this 2014-2015 winter (winter in the N. hemisphere, summer down under). There is even talk of a super-El Nino, one to rival 1998’s phenomenal event. Lots of good information on that here at P3. Some forecasters are now putting the odds at 70%.
The repercussions for global and regional weather are very large, there will be winners and losers, though as with climate change impacts in general, the wins are no match for the losses. There will also undoubtedly be a new, likely very striking, global temperature anomaly record high. Which brings us to….
The good news is this will finally silence the Wattses and the Currys and the Moncktons and their disingenuous meme about global warming having stopped in 1998. A new, head-and-shoulders-above-the-trend, global high temperature will put 1998’s head-and-shoulders-above-the-trend record well in the past. The new emerging trend will no longer look like a climate model predictive failure even when the climate change deniers rummage for the ripest and reddest in the bowl full of temperature record cherries. This will also finally silence the avalanche of attacks on another 1998 phenomenon, the famous Mann et al. Hockey Stick graph as this level of warmth can no longer be doubted to be below the peak of any remotely plausible reconstruction of the medieval warm period.
And lastly, the bad news is that I’m only kidding about the good news…