For the first time (at least that I’ve noticed), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center makes it explicit–Supertyphoon Ioke may ultimately hit Japan. Granted, it will have weakened by then–but still. Here’s how they put it:
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120 STY 01C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO ITS TRACK INTO COOLER SSTS. AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO HELP TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120. A SLIGHT POLEWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120 AS AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EVEN AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO WEAKEN, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF JAPAN.
How many tropical cyclones have started out around Hawaii and gone on to hit Japan? Not many, I would imagine.