Chris Mooney is a visiting associate in the 
Ernesto is now a Category 1 hurricane, and appears to be one of those spooky ones that comes up through the Caribbean bouncing off of islands as if in a pinball machine, before finally expending its fury against the Gulf Coast. "Unfortunately," in the words of forecaster Stacy Stewart, the track has recently been adjusted so that Ernesto could be aimed towards some very vulnerable areas of Florida, namely, the Keys and Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg. Of course, anything could still happen, but the new projected track is a disturbing one. Moreover, the NHC sees little reason not to expect a major hurricane at landfall. It is going to be an interesting few days, to say the least...
P.S.: As usual Jeff Masters adds many more insights, most notably that he expects this storm to probably kill "hundreds" in Haiti due to flooding and to have its name retired. He also expects an evacuation order for the Lower Keys soon.
