First, the good news: Favio has weakened back down to Category 3 as it approaches landfall in Mozambique. Certainly no one is out of the woods yet; but there no longer seems much chance of a Category 4 landfall in the next 24-36 hours. That’s the good news.
However, as we get into the peak time for Southern Hemisphere cyclone activity, you can see from the image above (courtesy of Meteo-France) that not one but two new storms have now formed in the Indian Ocean, and both are tracking west. The middle storm, just named Gamede, is on a course that could take it to Madagascar. Both storms are expected to intensify.
So, although the Australian and Southwest Pacific regions have remained relatively quiet thus far, the Indian Ocean is getting very active….