The Intersection

Is Gamede another Gafilo?


One of the most devastating tropical cyclones of 2004 was Cyclone Gafilo, pictured at left, which struck northern Madagascar at full Category 5 intensity, causing destruction that left hundreds of thousands homeless. And while it’s too soon to say yet what will happen, this year’s G storm in the South Indian, Gamede, could also be quite troublesome.

Gamede is currently a Category 3 storm, with a minimum sea level pressure estimated at 956 millibars by Meteo France. It is also a very, very large hurricane, considerably larger than Favio was, as you can see from this satellite image:

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None of the models have Gamede getting as strong as Gafilo did, but they do show the possiblity of a powerful Category 4 storm. Meanwhile, Gamede’s predicted track, from Tropical Storm Risk, clearly puts Madagascar in the crosshairs, and possibly Mozambique after that.

In short, this one bears watching perhaps even more than Favio did. I leave you with the latest image of the developing Gamede, from the Navy Research Lab: