The Intersection

Should We Hazard a Prediction?

I’m not a meteorologist. I haven’t done an analysis of vertical wind shear, sea surface temperatures, or anything else. Moreover, even the best forecasters have a tough time determining when a severe hurricane will grow out of a more ordinary disturbance.

But all of that said, doesn’t it look like this disturbance over the Indian Ocean is about to develop? You can already kinda see the spiraling rain bands.

(Disclosure: This is amateur hour. I’ll be happy to be proven wrong.)

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Comments

  1. #1 llewelly
    March 28, 2007

    Shear appears to be about 5-10 kts. SSTs are about 28 C, and warm water is about 50m – 75m deep.
    It almost seems to have some modest organization, and cold cloud tops to nearly -80 C .
    JTWC has been tracking as 94S for some days now. I think the odds of development are about as good as they get in the south Indian ocean at this time of year. Of course, I’m also an amateur …

  2. #2 llewelly
    March 30, 2007

    And it has developed. Meteo france is now calling it a tropical depression, noaa’s satellite services people give a Dvorak rating of 3.0, (as does meteo france), which usually indicates a system of tropical storm strength. And JTWC is tracking it as 22S, with an estimated intensity of 45 kts.

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