The Intersection

First Alvin, Now Barbara?

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It’s not even June yet, but a second storm seems to be forming in the Northeast Pacific off the western coast of Mexico, as seen in the image above from the National Hurricane Center. The center’s first forecast discussion says this:

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 30C…AND THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS VERY LIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY HIGHLY DIVERGENT… AND COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE EXPECTED TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE TAKE THE CYCLONE TO 80 KT OR HIGHER…AND THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS UNUSUALLY HIGH.

One to keep an eye on, clearly.

And note: This is in the Northeast Pacific, where NOAA is actually forecasting a below average storm season. The Atlantic is expected to be more active this year, and indeed, we’ve already had our first named storm there (Andrea). But the Northeast Pacific now seems off to a brisk start as well…..