Chris Mooney is a visiting associate in the 
The latest National Hurricane Center forecast discussion, from forecaster Eric Blake, is blunt:
BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL HURRICANE.
Here is the latest track for Dean, which is supposed to be a hurricane within 24 hours:
Comments
Thats a too familar sort of track, likely into the gulf of Mexico. Fortunately its a fairly narrow passage (if Dean wants to avoid damaging itself with land interaction).
Posted by: bigTom | August 15, 2007 6:12 PM
I'm headed to Varadero, Cuba for a week-long vacation on Friday. The city is just on the (north) edge of the 4-5 day forecast track, so hopefully it'll miss entirely. Still a bit worrying though...
Posted by: Cecil | August 15, 2007 6:52 PM
Chris,
I am in Baton Rouge. We've already started stocking up on batteries and ice. Gotta beat the "it's on the Gulf" rush.
I have bad feelings about this storm (despite being a rationalist). I really don't want to go through a Katrita phenomenon again.
Kiss Sheril for me.
Cheers,
Jeb, FCD
Posted by: Jeb, FCD | August 15, 2007 9:44 PM
Some high tropical heat potential in the path of Dean.
Posted by: llewelly | August 15, 2007 10:45 PM
It also looks similar to Wilma, which wreaked havoc on the Yucatan peninsula. (My sister's ground-floor apartment had water three feet deep in the living room, and lots of hotels in Cancun got completely smashed to pieces). I hope they don't have to live through that again, just after rebuilding.
Posted by: Thinker | August 16, 2007 4:10 AM
And Metro Manila has just been thrashed by "super typhoon" Sepat, with winds peaking around 225 km/h and torrential rains "unexpected even in MM" which is now heading toward Taiwan . . .
http://www.philstar.com/index.php?Headlines&p=49&type=2&sec=24&aid=20070815153
Posted by: Fred Heutte | August 16, 2007 5:41 AM
Hey Folks,
thanks for all the comments. Remember there's still very high uncertainty about where Dean will go, though looking at the track, I get pretty worried too. And indeed, I woke up and the storm is now officially a hurricane.
I disagree with the Wilma analogy. Wilma developed in the Caribbean as often happens with our October hurricanes. By contrast, Dean is one of the dreaded Cape Verde-type storms, which travel all the way across the Atlantic, building up strength along the way. A better (and equally scary) analogy might be Hurricane Ivan.
Finally, Fred, I think Metro Manila would only have gotten rainfall from Sepat, which I've been watching closely. This storm is out over the water and that's where it has done its intensification....
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Posted by: Chris Mooney | August 16, 2007 6:44 AM