The Intersection

Time To Panic Over Cyclone Sidr

i-171ca8ccd50b7f57341c64690709abf7-SIDR Cat 5 Maybe.jpgOkay, it is time to get alarmist here. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center just released its latest forecast, and this storm still hasn’t weakened as has been so endlessly predicted. Instead, it is still a strong Category 4–130 knot winds, or almost 150 miles per hour–according to JTWC. And frankly, the automated Advanced Dvorak Technique says the storm is a Category 5 and still intensifying.

This is a nightmare unfolding. The official landfall prediction from JTWC–like we trust them–is 115 knots, or weak Category 4. This is a storm that needs to be evacuated from, but I have no idea whether that is taking place on the ground. And as for weakening–yeah, that may well happen before landfall, but we’re talking about a landfall 24 hours from now. And this storm is whipping up waves of 40 feet or more right now.

This looks bad. Really bad.

And I note that the US Embassy in Bangladesh doesn’t even have a press release up on its website about the storm.

Comments

  1. #1 greg laden
    November 14, 2007

    Looking at the sea surface temperature maps and the storm’s predicted path, it is going to go over water that is warmer than where it is now.

    I did a search for news and can confirm that this is being VERY underreported.

  2. #2 Chris C. Mooney
    November 14, 2007

    one scientist who knows a lot about this just told me this could be a worst case….

  3. #3 Sven Cahling
    November 14, 2007

    News in Bangladesh confirming what you´re saying about the storm intensifying: http://www.theindependent-bd.com/hotnews.php?nid=3539

  4. #4 Siamang
    November 14, 2007

    So this thing is barreling straight for Kolkata?

    Shit.

  5. #5 George
    November 14, 2007

    As bad as the intensity is, regardless, there will be huge rainfall on an area that is prone to deadly floods.

  6. #6 carsten
    November 14, 2007

    there really isn’t a lot on the web and the news on this, only thing i could find was on alertnet

    http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/DHA258653.htm

  7. #7 Sven Cahling
    November 14, 2007

    carsten: There was a scary piece of fact in that one: “Nearly 10 million Bangladeshis live in vulnerable points along the coast, but there are storm shelters for only half a million people”

  8. #8 Darrel
    November 14, 2007
  9. #9 Peter M.
    November 14, 2007
  10. #10 Pavan Nair
    November 15, 2007

    Unfortunately most Indians including the media are blissfully unaware of the severity of the storm. A cricket match with Pakistan is in progress. Only the government channel is reporting the severity of the storm even if late. In Kolkata there were several demonstrations till this evening for or against the Chief Minister regaring the takeover of several villages in Nadigram by the communist party cadre. Nandigram is incidentally directly in the path of the storm. Bangladesh is much better prepared with storm shelters in place. The type of houses used in the region are huts made of local material which are bound to be blown away. We can only hope that the damage is minimal. Very little has been done regarding evacuation on the Indian side.

  11. #11 Anonomouse
    November 15, 2007

    Yep, if the Governments in the area can’t be arsed about a storm in their own backyard why the frick should I care when I’m way over here? Looking forward to the bodycount!

  12. #12 J.
    November 15, 2007

    It’s midnight and the sky’s a deep shade of plum, it’s raining rather irregularly outside..
    The news is SO unhelpful.
    They just said it’s heading towards Bangladesh now- Kolkata’s not going to be much affected.. Just some heavy rain here and there.

  13. #13 Matthieu
    November 15, 2007

    Hi,

    Midnight in Kolkata and a peaceful night with a few rain drops.

    Looks like it’s all going to Bangladesh, we wish them the best possible.

  14. #14 Tom
    November 15, 2007

    It came to be – alarmist was the correct term. Evacuations were made – just because you couldn’t find any news didn’t mean nothing wasn’t being done to prepare for this storm.

  15. #15 Anonomouse
    November 17, 2007

    Yet there he is begging for money for all the untold deaths that never happened.