The Intersection

There has been some buzz of late over the idea that with a recent paper, MIT hurricane guru Kerry Emanuel is backing down from the stance that global warming has intensified recent hurricanes. But after reading the paper, I just don’t see it. Sure, Emanuel admits he might be wrong but that’s no more and no less than any other scientist might do.

I explain in a lot more detail over at The Daily Green.

Comments

  1. #1 bob koepp
    April 17, 2008

    Chris – KE’s changed position certainly isn’t a “conversion” (i.e., he hasn’t gone over to the dark side), but going from “Yes, GW has caused an increase in storm frequency and intensity” to “We need more research to answer that question” is most definitely a case of “backing down” from the earlier stance. He hasn’t re-affirmed his 2005 view and simply admitted that he might be wrong — he’s not affirming anything except that the current evidence doesn’t warrant drawing a conclusion at this time.

  2. #2 Steve Bloom
    April 20, 2008

    That’s a hopeful reading, Bob. There are reasons to think the models could have some issues regarding the likely future extent of climate zone shifts, ocean circulation changes and stratification. Wait for that shoe to drop.

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