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The Island of Doubt

An irregular exploration of the struggle between the power of rational discourse and the scientific method on one hand, and the forces of superstition and dogma on the other.

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me-fergus.jpg James Hrynyshyn is a freelance science journalist based in western North Carolina, where he tries to put degrees in marine biology and journalism to good use.

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for 9 July 2007

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Add to Technorati Favorites! Penetrating so many secrets, we cease to believe in the unknowable. But there it sits nevertheless, calmly licking its chops.
--- H. L. Mencken

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-- Richard Dawkins

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-- Michael Shermer.

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Doubt vs. Certainty in the NYT

Category: climate
Posted on: February 6, 2007 7:07 AM, by James Hrynyshyn

Venerable New York Times reporter William K. Stevens resurfaces today in the paper's Science Times with a few words on the changing nature of the debate over the changing climate. The headline is only slightly misleading:

"On the Climate Change Beat, Doubt Gives Way to Certainty"

Technically, there is no certainty, just diminishing levels of doubt. But it is a nice little essay. I just finished writing something similar for a magazine, and found the similarities with Steven's piece almost troubling, except that it's pretty obvious stuff.

To say that reasonable doubt is vanishing does not mean there is no doubt at all. Many gaps remain in knowledge about the climate system. Scientists do make mistakes, and in any case science continually evolves and changes. That is why the panel's findings, synthesized from a vast body of scientific studies, are generally couched in terms of probabilities and sometimes substantial margins of error. So in the recesses of the mind, there remains a little worm of caution that says all may not be as it seems, or that the situation may somehow miraculously turn around -- or, for that matter, that it may turn out worse than projected.
The last line of that paragraph is something that most so-called climate change deniers frequently and conveniently avoid.

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Comments

I am constantly baffled by those that discount global warming, though since I'm no expert I hardly wade into such arguments. I hope, though, that more people will wake up and make a change for the environment.

Posted by: JD Kolassa | February 7, 2007 7:19 PM

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