The Island of Doubt

Implicit in every "clean coal" advocate's pitch (no pun intended) for subsidizing the technology to free us from our oil addiction is the assumption that we have at least 200 years' worth of the stuff under American soil -- and plenty more around the world. That could be very wrong, according to a new National Academy of Sciences study.

Matthew Wald has the story in today's New York Times. Here's the relevant section from the study itself (bold emphasis mine):

Despite significant uncertainties in existing reserve estimates, it is clear that there is sufficient coal at current rates of production to meet anticipated needs through 2030. Looking further into the future, there is probably sufficient coal to meet the nation's needs for more than 100 years at current rates of consumption. However, it is not possible to confirm the often- quoted assertion that there is a sufficient supply of coal for the next 250 years. A combination of increased rates of production with more detailed reserve analyses that take into account location, quality, recoverability, and transportation issues may substantially reduce the number of years of supply.... Recent programs to assess reserves in limited areas using updated methods indicate that only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually minable reserves. Such findings emphasize the need for a reinvigorated coal reserve assessment program using modern methods and technologies to provide a sound basis for informed decision-making.

Wald stokes the story with some supplemental info, including the news that

...more recent studies by the United States Geological Survey showed that at least in some areas, only 5 percent of the coal was recoverable with today's technology and at current prices. The 100-year forecast was based on current consumption rates, about 1.1 billion tons a year. By 2030, the rate of coal consumption could be 70 percent higher or 50 percent lower than it is now, the study found.

This is good news for those opposed to pouring money into the fanciful notion that coal can be made clean. Currently, coal-to-liquids technology produces 190 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions as ordinary oil products, so that's a non-starter. Looks like the Senate, at least, has figured that out. Unfortunately, some senators are still keen on the larger concept of clean coal, as the $29 billion tax on oil companies just approved by the Finance Committee includes clean coal projects among the recipients of the fund to be generated by the tax. [Update: Republicans shoot down the whole thing.]

If the NAS study is solid, then coal is hardly worth the trouble. Just like fusion, clean coal is 40 years away and always will be. Sadly, the study's authors draw the opposite conclusion. The NAS press release insists:

a major increase in federal support for research and development is needed to ensure that this natural resource is extracted efficiently, safely, and in an environmentally responsible manner