James Hrynyshyn is a freelance science journalist and communications consultant based in western North Carolina, where he tries to put degrees in marine biology and journalism to good use.
Today we hear about a new study suggesting the north pole's summer ice will be gone within seven years. Not, 40, not 30, not even 13, but seven. I can't find any information from the actual study. All that we know comes from a brief mention in Al Gore's Nobel Prize acceptance speech, so this should be filed under "wait until further confirmation before getting excited and/or alarmed." But it does fit a trend of increasing temporal proximity.
Here's what Gore said:
Last September 21, as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years.UPDATE: and here's the first mainstream media reference I can find to something scientific in origin:Seven years from now.
NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions."
Comments
JH,
Please leep up with this!
Does this fit with another "hockey stick"?
Assymptote pie anyone? Or just crow?
Posted by: Skeptic8 | December 11, 2007 3:44 PM
The way it's melting suggests a new warm water ocean current or even just an increase in ocean current volume, from the Bering Sea.
I hope not. I hope it's cloud cover variations or something else.
Posted by: Phillip Huggan | December 15, 2007 3:29 AM
Here is the study.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/13/2117735.htm
Posted by: Ursas Maritimus | January 22, 2008 5:07 PM