James Hrynyshyn is a freelance science journalist and communications consultant based in western North Carolina, where he tries to put degrees in marine biology and journalism to good use.
For at least as long as I've been paying attention, Roger Pielke Sr. hasn't been all that popular among those are doing their best to convince the world to take the threat of climate change seriously. He's a genuine, and until recently, reputable scientist at a genuine and reputable institution of higher learning, Colorado State University. His hard-line skepticism has at times proven useful when it comes to keeping the rest of the climatology community on its toes. He accepts that humans are contributing to climate change, but is concerned that the general focus on carbon dioxide as the primary forcing of greenhouse warming is misguided and overlooks other, natural and anthropogenic factors.
I have in the past learned things of value from paying attention to his analyses. I will not be doing so any longer.
Here's how RPSr. describes his general approach to the state of climate science:
Research has shown that the focus on just carbon dioxide as the dominate human climate forcing is too narrow. We have found that natural variations are still quite important, and moreover, the human influence is significant, but it involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of CO2 (e.g. see NRC, 2005 and Kabat et al, 2004). These other forcings, such as land use change and from atmospheric pollution aerosols, may have a greater effect on our climate than the effects that have been claimed for CO2.
That's a not view that's widely held outside of his research group, but it's not without some supporting data, and there's always room and a need for evidence-based skepticism. But over the years RPSr. has grown increasing dismissive of the growing mountain of evidence against his point of view and he no longer appears willing to engage or interested in a responsible dialog.
Joe Romm long ago gave up on RPSr, and this past week the Real Climate gang basically did the same, after an astounding post at Pielke's blog that defies common sense.
For me, it was the last straw. in just a few dozen words, Pielke three times draws conclusions about global climate indicator trends that are completely at odds with an honest approach. To the fact that sea level rise is proceeding faster than previously anticipated, he writes
Sea level has actually flattened since 2006.
To the observations that ocean heat content is accelerating, he writes
Their has been no statistically significant warming of the upper ocean since 2003.
And to the infamously shrinking Arctic sea ice extent, he writes
Since 2008, the anomalies have actually decreased.
I just don't understand how someone with his level of experience can assert that long-term trends are invalidated by short-term variation. "Since 2008"? As the Real Climate gang notes, you can find any trend you want in a natural system if you cherry-pick your period carefully enough.
From now on, consider any source quoting RPSr. hopefully out of touch with reality. Sad. We need critical and responsible voices more than ever.
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Comments
Ah, yes -- the fine art of taking a high-order derivative at a carefully chosen point and extrapolating it.
If you extrapolate the second derivative of the monthly temperature in July, you'll find that we're going to be in liquid-nitrogen conditions by next May.
Posted by: D. C. Sessions | July 6, 2009 10:59 AM
Off topic, but as I was reading this, I was reminded of a remarkable thing I discovered the other day. While people like Warren Buffet and John Bogle, supposed "financial experts," declare that the stock market is a good long-term bet, the facts say otherwise. The historical record is full of wild swings in stock prices, while Bogle, Buffet, and their fellow stooges focus only on the good periods, like the 1980s and 90s. A quick look at a chart of historical prices shows how wrong this is--stocks stopped going up back in January of 2000 (coincidentally, about the same time global warming ended!). I feel a tremendous amount of pity for anyone who puts their money in stocks expecting solid long-run returns. I'm putting my money someplace safe--under my mattress.
Posted by: Tim | July 6, 2009 11:45 AM
My observations have seen a marked climate warming since this morning. Locally, anyway.
Posted by: BAllanJ | July 6, 2009 2:08 PM
can you spell "I'm getting money from special-interest groups." ? I knew you could.
Posted by: djlactin | July 6, 2009 2:39 PM
Tim, you're falling into exactly the same trap as Pielke. Time frame makes a big difference. Money that you need soon should not be in the stock market, but if you have forever you can ride out the fluctuations and reap longer term profits (keep in mind that the DJIA does not take dividends into account; historically, dividends have added 2-4 percentage points to annual stock returns). Likewise with climate change: just because the past couple of years have been cooler than years earlier in the decade (at least this is true of my location) does not mean that the long-term warming trend is over. There may be a decadal-scale countertrend masking the century-scale trend. When the decadal-scale trend turns the other way, watch out.
Posted by: Eric Lund | July 6, 2009 4:14 PM
Um, at least I think that's the case.
Posted by: dhogaza | July 6, 2009 6:52 PM
James, I'm surprised it's taken you so long to give up on RP Sr., though. The man has been singing Watts' "photos can prove that the GISS temperature product is bunk" line of scientific "reasoning" since the very beginning of the surface stations project, and treats Watts with a level of respect diametrically opposite to the scorn he heaps on the climate science community.
Posted by: dhogaza | July 6, 2009 6:54 PM
More than that, RP Sr. was singing the "bad surface stations proved by photos" line since before Watts ever heard of it, and indeed was the source of the latter's interest.
Posted by: Steve Bloom | July 6, 2009 7:35 PM
Steve Bloom, I was unaware of that, and it furthers my disgust of RP Sr.
No wonder RP Sr. and Watts have such a mutual lovefest going on.
Posted by: dhogaza | July 7, 2009 12:19 AM
His extrapolations remind me of a recent XKCD comic:
http://xkcd.com/605/
Posted by: ScruffyDan | July 7, 2009 2:10 AM
Thanks .
Posted by: Sohpet | July 27, 2009 4:30 AM