Over at MyDD.com, there’s some consternation about how a generic Democrat beats a generic Republican in opinion polls, but named Democrats do poorly against named Republicans. As you might imagine, everyone is arguing that this is the reason why his or her electoral strategy MUST BE FOLLOWED. I think the explanation is pretty straightforward:
The more voters know about a particular candidate, the less they like that candidate.
I’m serious; this isn’t snark. Any time that a political party is identified with controlling the Congress by more than 64 percent of the voting public, that party loses seats, even if that party doesn’t actually control the Congress. The more public knowledge of a candidate or party there is, the more the negatives go up, and the positives go down.
It’s a good null hypothesis anyway…