I’ve never gone in for electoral prognostication; after all, in the 2006 election, a huge swath of voters didn’t decide whom they would vote for until a couple of days before the election. Having said that, driftglass identifies the true swing voters of the 2008 election:
Because 100 years from now, the Tale of Election 2008 will be the story of several million ignorant, white, working-class voters – both Democrats and Independents (the Republicans are a lost cause who will remain an unashamedly morally bankrupt open-sewer for at least another 30 years) and which way they turned.
Right now there is so much pressure on these voters — so much torque to their sense of identity being wrenched onto by them by the economic and cultural disasters wrought by the liars and sociopaths they keep electing — that they are almost in tears, moaning and clawing at their skulls, trying to figure out how to simultaneously:
A) Keep from drowning in a rising tide of ruin and failure of their own making, and
B) Stay faithful to the deep, ugly foundation stones of bigotry they dutifully learned at their fathers’ and grandfathers’ knees and which, up until now, they have been spared the pain of facing by the use of pretty, perfumed code.
They are becoming unhinged trying to reconcile this massive, existential dissonance at the core of their lives, except this time applying the Negrological Constant to magically explain away their fundamentally defective model of the Universe will not work.
This time there they cannot escape the choice the have to make. And this time we on the Left will remind them — loudly, rudely, and from every street corner, blog, and microphone — exactly what those choices are: to adapt and change and live in a Progressive and tolerant nation, or stay just as they are and die in a Conservative and bigoted one.
And right now it is 6-to-5 and pick ‘em which is stronger: the people, or the American Racism Virus that hagrides them.
The Swing Vote That Must Not Be Named.