The projections used by the Social Security Administration to determine when it will become ‘insolvent’ are notoriously pessimistic, in that they have been estimating that Social Security will be DOOOMED! in 28-38 years going on nearly twenty years. Like Zeno’s spear, we never seem to hit that wall. Well, it’s spread to Medicare (
like E. coli O104:H4! ZOMG!!). Jared Bernstein lays out the past twenty one years of Medicare* estimates for us:
If we take this year’s prediction seriously–or at least consider it the lower bound–then many more predictions will turn out to be wrong too. The real crisis that faces us is not a deficit decades from now, but the awful, miserable employment deficit we face today.
The stupid, it burns.
*Medicare is the program that provides health insurance for the elderly. Actually, Medicare is divided into four parts, and only one part (albeit the largest) is in ‘trouble.’ Supposedly.