No Se Nada

I'm still buried under snow and work, so blogging will remain slow for a while if you're worried. I'll try to trickle out some good stuff in the meantime, like this fabulous prediction by our favorite Oracle, Mr. Pat Robertson.

Mr. Robertson

predicted Tuesday that a terrorist attack on the United States would result in "mass killing" late in 2007.

"I'm not necessarily saying it's going to be nuclear," he said during his news-and-talk television show The 700 Club on the Christian Broadcasting Network. "The Lord didn't say nuclear. But I do believe it will be something like that."

Mr. Robertson said God told him during a recent prayer retreat that major cities and possibly millions of people will be affected by the attack, which should take place some time after September.

Now, is this really a prediction? Or is it a well-placed errand boy delivering a message from his superiors? The answer matters, because if it is a prediction then it implies that some quantifiable uncertainty exists on the prediction. And where does the uncertainty lie? In that Mr. Robertson might not really have a direct line to the Heavenly Father? What are the chances? Or that the line might have had some static, obscuring God's voice and so Mr. Robertson might not have heard every detail totally clearly? What are the chances? If we hit Jan. 1, 2008 without the predicted attack, is there a way that we can go back and figure out what went so horribly wrong for Mr. Robertson? Of course, the possibility exists that he's just making it all up:

The broadcaster predicted in January 2004 that U.S. President George W. Bush would easily win re-election. Mr. Bush won 51 per cent of the vote that fall, beating Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. He also predicted Bush's victory for a second term in 2005.

"I have a relatively good track record," he said. "Sometimes I miss."

In May, Mr. Robertson said God told him that storms and possibly a tsunami were to crash into America's coastline in 2006. Even though the U.S. was not hit with a tsunami, Mr. Robertson on Tuesday cited last spring's heavy rains and flooding in New England as partly fulfilling the prediction.

Predictions matter for policy makers, whether they be on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of future climate change or on the possibilities for mass death directed by an angry God. (Of course, now that God has told Mr. Robertson of the attack, it implies God's compliance in the attack, so if it does happen, instead of asking ourselves "Why do they hate us?" we should be asking ourselves, "Why does God hate us?")