Pharyngula

I was wondering how many hours you were planning to hold off posting on this disaster.

Posted by: Collin | August 1, 2007 10:35 PM

I was at a movie, and when I got out, called Dad to complain about Kevin McHale, and he told me this happened. I was nearly running to get home and get to the STrib and WCCO et. al. websites. It's been dominating the local news here in Boston, although they have no idea who Mayor Rybak is.

I'm waiting for the 11:00 news on Channel 4, when Ken Barlow comes on.

Best wishes to those in the Twin Cities. I hope the fatalities remain near the 6 currently being reported.

(This is also going to make the wretched traffic situation in the Twin Cities worse for a couple years.)

I miss home right now.
former Minneapolitan.

Posted by: MAJeff | August 1, 2007 10:38 PM

Certainly odd. Not a seismically active area, no prior indications of problems, doesn't look like the bridge's foundations were undermined by the river, inspected three years ago..

I'm really wondering what it will turn out to be. Substandard materials, perhaps?

-jcr

Posted by: John C. Randolph | August 1, 2007 10:41 PM

We have a tax-phobic Republican governor who has caught lots of flak for underfunding the department of transportation; I've already seen him adamant at a press conference swearing up and down that a recent examination of the bridge showed that the bridge was fine until 2020.

I have zero expertise in this matter, but I wonder if the construction project going on on the bridge (all surface stuff--concrete work, "joint work," lighting stuff, etc.) overloaded it. 35W in Minneapolis has been one big construction zone all summer; until tonight, that fact was only a nuisance. Ouch.

Posted by: Rieux | August 1, 2007 10:51 PM

I don't watch TV or listen to radio, so I know it's really news when both DailyKos and Pharyngula mention an item...

Posted by: inkadu | August 1, 2007 10:57 PM

Just saw the news in my hotel lounge, with a colleague.

Made me thing of 9/11 - not re terrorists, just re people hurt, and possibly people I know (my colleague is from St Paul.. and is busy right now calling friends to make sure they're fine). I had a couple of colleagues die in the twin towers. I also had a friend who narrowly missed death in the huge Tsunami a couple of years ago...

Disasters now make me think about the people involved in a very personal way.

My thoughts go to everyone affected.

Posted by: tony | August 1, 2007 11:23 PM

We have a tax-phobic Republican governor who has caught lots of flak for underfunding the department of transportation; I've already seen him adamant at a press conference swearing up and down that a recent examination of the bridge showed that the bridge was fine until 2020.

It reminds me of the overpass collapse in Laval, Quebec. The inquiry in that disaster found it was built badly, and with several other overpasses throughout the province in need of urgent repair. It's not the same scale, but still...

I remember at high school career fair the civil engineering rep telling us how much of North America's infrastructure is in need of repair.

Oh well. You got to hope for the best.

Posted by: C. Birkbeck | August 1, 2007 11:23 PM

The StarTribune has posted on its website the findings from the March 2001 University of Minnesota--Twin Cities study that found the bridge was in reasonably good condition. Here 'tis (PDF): http://tinyurl.com/2a6zyy

Posted by: Rieux | August 1, 2007 11:26 PM

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mch f tr thst y rlly r whn
cnfrntd wth th cryng, trfl
xclmtn frm smn whs kd ws
jst klld n ths brdg ccdnt,
"Wll, t lst thy'r wth Gd, nw.", thy
sy t y.

Nw, thst, r y gng t tll thm
lk t s, tht thr s n Gd?

r, wll y wmpr wy, scrd t ffrm
yrslf nd lv thr cmfrtng thghts t
thmslvs?

Wht hppnd t th dggd dtrmntn t chng th wrld? Y cld vn thrw hr n f yr nw t-shrts
t wp th trs wy, t sprd yr mssg.

Why nw nd nt vry mnt f th dy, rgrdlss f
dth?

Why th snstvty nw?

S, y cn b nsnstv, ntrfrng sss
98% f th tm bt Dth, ntrl prcss,
wh, y hld ff?

N - y wldn't sy nythng, y'd kp yr
thghts nd gnd t yrslvs.

Wsh t wr ll f th tm.

[filthy fucking scumbag, and typical goddamned despicable Christian, rushing to exploit a tragedy for his wretched beliefs. Philos is banned.]

Posted by: philos | August 1, 2007 11:41 PM

As always in a senseless tragedy like this, my thoughts turn to the families. Be strong, people. I do shed a tear for you.

And now, let's throw science at this problem and find out what happened. We need to know to prevent other possible failures.

Coincidentally, we had a collapse near Sacramento yesterday. Not as bad, but that is one lucky FedEx guy.

Posted by: MikeM | August 1, 2007 11:46 PM

This is an interesting example of newsworthiness.

There were probably the usual distribution of traffic injuries and fatalities elsewhere in the Twin Cities area - and they're just as dead or wounded. This is just a new and different way of dying in traffic so it gets a lot of attention. But why are people worrying about their friends and family? The daily per-person likelihood of dying on the road has hardly shifted by a measurable amount; but I bet nobody will call their friends tomorrow to frantically ask "ARE YOU OK?!! NO BRIDGE FELL DOWN BUT I WAS JUST WORRIED BECAUSE THE CHANCE YOU DIED ON THE ROAD IS BASICALLY THE SAME."

I'm not trying to be nasty or anything; this is a good example of how people don't do a good job with probability in the large-scale. What is it: "Luck is just probability taken personally"? Since people do such a bad job with probability it's not surprising that some of them would feel they had been specially singled out to be destroyed or saved in this accident.

Here's a prediction - someone will attribute their survival to miraculous intervention or good fortune. You know, as if Zod made the bridge collapse and kill a few people so he could illustrate what a merciful dude he is by saving a person's life.

Posted by: Marcus Ranum | August 2, 2007 12:07 AM

I'm not dead, yet. However, the bridge collapse had a side effect. My mother hasn't talked to me since April when she "found out" that I was an atheist. Today, she called franticly to make sure I was alright. I may have been on the bridge coming home from work, if I hadn't been at home sick. Should I be grateful for the sausage, egg, and cheese biscuit breakfast sandwich which made me ill?

Posted by: Bjorn Watland | August 2, 2007 12:20 AM

Humans are emotional, Marcus, and "probability assessments" are most often the concerns of arm chair observers.

Certain moments involving unusual events reveal interest and personal reflection on mortality. In turn, empathy becomes heavily involved for those we may not know other than by our shared human experience.

As a criminal investigator specializing in violent crimes and often involved in tragic events I know firsthand that people internalize their perspective and reach out for commonality, care and comfort.

Over indulgence in emotionless critique may be your way of coping with this event as well, if you really think about it...and so I encourage you to examine how you would feel toward those you know and love personally and those you just observe in "news" stories.

These are real people, just as those involved in lesser recognized events you suggest, and none of them (in my view) should be objectified as "traffic injuries" no matter how much the press seems to promote that concept.

Just because this thread is about this particular event doesn't mean that people don't recognize other profoundly risky behavior that we all engage in on a daily basis, in any event.

I know that I simply discovered this forum while seeking knowledge which is a common personality trait regardless of the events that occur and then found a familiar "face" to share a moment of life.

Thanks for the insight regarding the towers, Kristine, it was a suggested possibility offered. During the aftermath of Katrina we certainly had no real way of getting phone service out either, however, texting was available within a day or so for some of my co-workers.

We haven't heard back from our friend as of yet tonight and she isn't answering either now, so I will have to post more tomorrow.

Take care everyone,

Steve

Posted by: Steve Schlicht | August 2, 2007 12:37 AM

>We're people. that means that we're fundamentally tribal.
>and that means that when we see something happening - in
>a significant way - to members of our tribe we're going
>to be concerned.

YES! THAT WAS EXACTLY MY POINT!!!

Because we're so wrapped up in our local perceptions and our small-scale understanding of probability, we look at this kind of thing and completely mis-estimate its importance. Can't you see how that same kind of mistake is the kind of mistake that leads people to leap to conclusions like: "I must be somehow important" or "this is divine will" or "we are the chosen tribe"?

I wasn't trying to be insensitive about this - it's a tragedy. For the people who died and got hurt and their families. For all of the other 1,000,000 people who live in the area, it's a miracle that they were saved by God. Allah be praised!

Some people's reactions to a disaster is to flap their arms and wring their hands; I engage my brain. You deal with it however suits you, OK?

Posted by: Marcus Ranum | August 2, 2007 12:52 AM

If there's a bright side, it's that the construction going on had the road restricted to one lane in each direction, down from four each way, I believe. Could have been 4x worse.

Just went over that bridge this morning.

Posted by: Lisa | August 2, 2007 1:00 AM

9 confirmed dead as of 12:15 central (from the STrib).

I know it's irrational, but don't really care. Mpls is still home to me, and my city is hurting tonight.

Posted by: MAJeff | August 2, 2007 1:19 AM

Marcus -- your missing the point...

We're all appalled at tragedy - small and large scale.

in a probabalistic sense, large scale really isn't that much larger in most cases... but that deoan;t mean we need to be totally insensitive and unfeeling.

this event and it's aftermath has absolutely nothing to do with god, and everything to do with people.

We *should* care.

It's appalling that we have been so generally desensitized to this kind of thing that we're less affected by the everyday smaller scale tragedies that we see on every news broadcast.

Please -- if you can't refrain from your insensitive comments - please at least wait a while before commenting again.

Posted by: tony | August 2, 2007 1:22 AM

The scary thing is that I crossed that bridge almost everyday to get to work. On a typical Wednesday, I am usually trying to get across the river at about 6:00 pm.

(Granted, I prefer to avoid the traffic by taking the arched bridge that runs parallel to 35W.)

I wasn't there today because my car wouldn't start this morning. The battery needed to be replaced and it took the entire morning to get it fixed. I decided that it wasn't worth driving in to work for such a short day.

Sometimes taking a day off can save your life.

Posted by: Tony Popple | August 2, 2007 1:27 AM

Underinvestment in infrastructure is a national problem. From the American Society of Civil Engineers,

http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/index.cfm

"ASCE estimates that $1.6 trillion is needed over a five-year period to bring the nation's infrastructure to a good condition. Establishing a long-term development and maintenance plan must become a national priority. But in the short term, small steps can be taken by the 110th Congress, as well as state legislatures and local communities, to improve our nation's failing infrastructure."

But you know, tax cuts for the rich and 12 billion per month for the war are more important to our glorious leaders.

So the Twins game went on and how did it start? With "a moment of prayer". Just what could they be praying about? What's done is done. They had better vote some money for infrastructure repair and renovation.

As to group disasters, Marcus has a point. Every time there is a plane crash, it gets extensive coverage. Yet air travel is one of the safest means. With about 40,000+ traffic deaths per year--100+ per day--you have the equivalent of a plane crash every two days. They only get a couple lines in the press or a couple seconds on the news.

Posted by: bernarda | August 2, 2007 2:06 AM

The daily per-person likelihood of dying on the road has hardly shifted by a measurable amount ...

Posted by: llewelly | August 2, 2007 2:06 AM

I've really gone back and forth as to weather posting this was appropriate. But since the discussion seems to have moved beyond the specific to the meta, a little part of me that thinks the truth is important feels compelled-

Berating atheists for "insensitivity" is beyond ironic, given that you and you alone, out of all the commenters here, see a tragedy like this as nothing more than an opportunity to push your message

While from what I can piece together from the disemvowled post, what Philos was putting out was most likely the same vile crap D'sousa tried to float regarding the Virgina Tech murders, and admittedly worthy of the treatment it received, it should be noted that your assessment here is incorrect.

He was neither the first nor the only to attempt to hijack this tragedy into some flimsy claim of support for an ideological position. He was beaten to the punch in the game of co-opting the personal misery of others into empty, offensive debate points, by both (the as of yet un-disemvowled and unbanned) John Danley, in comment #10:

The bridge must have been irreducibly complex...

and Hexxanhammer, in post #12:

God obviously thought the best way to call home the dead was to collapse a bridge and screw traffic in the city for a year or more.

Others have followed suit.

I know its comforting to think only "goddamn typical despicable christians" are capable of such objectionable tactics, but it turns out that insensitivity and ghoulishness are non-denominational.

And obviously, that whole mote/log thing is still a problem, 2000 years after that guy claiming to be god's kid was nice enough to point it out.

Posted by: uriel | August 2, 2007 3:33 AM

Cynically speaking, if the US wasn't quite so full of rapture-obsessed Christians, it might be politically possible to put enough investment into public infrastructure to make sure that this kind of thing doesn't happen.

As things stand, however, the christonuts would much rather divert public money into fanning the fires of the middle east in the hopes of bringing jeezus back rather than spending on such evil atheistic things as bridges and roads.

Posted by: BLOB[11] | August 2, 2007 3:57 AM

(Jeff, McHale is the "embedded Celtic". It's a secret, though.)

Best wishes to the folk of Minneapolis. Kristine is right, it's a catastrophe. Heck, I thought it was a catstrophe when one woman was crushed by a ceiling tile in one of the new artery tunnels in Boston last year... Sure, sure, in the big picture it meant nothing (and the ceilings got fixed) but it's all relative. To her family, it was HUGE, and the implications were disturbing to people throughout the region.

I think we're allowed to care about people who are directly affected by events like this - even if we don't know them. I think we're allowed to worry about loved ones who might have been directly affected, regardless of the odds. When there's a tragedy like this, the odds rise above zero, and NOBODY IS EXEMPT.

Posted by: Kseniya | August 2, 2007 4:39 AM

Rieux @ # 9, as a bridge engineer, I'm particuarly saddened to hear of this incident, & think of all the misery it's caused. You said, "I wonder if the construction project going on on the bridge (all surface stuff--concrete work, "joint work," lighting stuff, etc.) overloaded it."

I used to design to the AASHTO bridge code that was in use about the time this bridge was designed. There was a very simple model for traffic loading. However, the engineer involved with the repairs should have checked that loading from construction vehicles would not cause overstress, let alone failure. Was sufficient funding provided to carry this out? In competetive tendering situations - who knows? But I imagine that the State Highway Authority would have rules on this.

There can be many causes to a failure such as this. A forensic investigation will, perhaps, diagnose the cause or causes.

Posted by: Richard Harris, FCD | August 2, 2007 5:34 AM

Speaking of which, I seem to remember after the WTC attacks, Minnesotans sent aid to NYC to help those who were displaced or hurt by the attacks. Is there a need and mechanism to return the favor?

The emergency services people on the TV were directing everyone to the American Red Cross Twin Cities Chapter website:
http://www.redcrosstc.org/

Posted by: Nick (Matzke) | August 2, 2007 5:41 AM

Heya!

Just a quick word about communications during times of trouble. I know this is probably old news to many, and the problem concerning this particular incident has been solved already, but anyhow, for the benefit of the next time something like this happens:

If you need to contact someone using a cell phone, don't call! Instead, send an SMS (text message, or whatever it's called on that side of the Atlantic..) Even when the network is jammed with too many callers, an SMS (which uses up a significantly smaller amount of the data stream) has good chances of getting through, at least after a short(ish) delay. It may not be real time communication, but it's much better nothing. When disaster strikes it's also very important to avoid unnecessary load to the communications network, these things have never been built to withstand that kind of enormous amount of extra traffic and the public authorities and other aid workers need to be able to communicate without the added difficulty of dealing with a jammed phone network.

This is a lesson I have learned many times over, be it the aftermath of just some rock concert ("I'm right next to the gates, where are you..!?"*zillion doing an admirable job of killing all the cell phones in the area..) or the Tsunami a few years back.

Posted by: Frost | August 2, 2007 6:43 AM

Given the unusual nature of the collapse, it's no surprise authority figures feel the need to quash terrorism rumors.

The only reason I'm ignoring that possibility as a scenario is that I can't imagine an intervention that could have caused the bridge to fail in that particular way.

Whatever the cause, something is extremely weird in MN.

Posted by: Caledonian | August 2, 2007 7:36 AM

A poster over at crooks&liars gave the following link on the state of America's bridges. All this more or less started with Reaganomics.

http://www.bts.gov/publications/state_transportation_statistics/state_transportation_statistics_2006/html/table_01_07.html

155,000 bridges, or 26% of American bridges are substandard.

Rethuglicans, free-marketers kill.

Posted by: bernarda | August 2, 2007 8:05 AM

Yow. Over 1/2 of bridges in DC, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are substandard. That's impressive. Oddly enough, Minnesota had (at least as of 2005) a relatively low number of substandard bridges. Well, I suppose it has one fewer now.

Posted by: Dianne | August 2, 2007 8:25 AM

Those who perish never get a chance to brag about how God Personally Favors them.

Then again, if we're all wrong and there is an afterlife, a heaven even, maybe those who perished are now in Valhalla giggling at the foolishness of the poor folks who think that survival is a sign of god's favor. I mean, if there is a fun afterlife, aren't those who get there first the ones who are best off?

Posted by: Dianne | August 2, 2007 8:38 AM

Are you particularly dense speedwell? The problem is that the free-marketers always demand less tax. Oh, I am sure that the liberedartians know exactly how to take care of the situation.

Posted by: bernarda | August 2, 2007 8:53 AM

Ouch that's bad.

Posted by: commissarjs | August 2, 2007 9:05 AM

Do you mean to pretend that bridges are built by any semblance of the free market? Telll us another one, bernarda... that was funny.

Yes, actually. Nearly every contract for public work built nowadays is given to the lowest bidder, which gives construction companies a very strong temptation to cut corners to minimize the bid price and maximize their profit.

Posted by: N. C. "The Chairman" | August 2, 2007 9:12 AM

I believe that there was a period in the USA & Canada when competetive tendering on total design fee was used to select the bridge designer. It was previously the case that the Engineer's fee was a percentage of the construction cost, or an hourly rate.

Now competetive tendering on total design fee was really foolish. In at least some states, it was eventually banned. I'm no longer a bridge engineer, so I don't know the situation for bridge design nowadays, but it still happens in the UK for design of structures for buildings.

Okay, the client gets a cheap design, but is it a good design? Does it cost more to build, will the structure be as serviceable or aesthetic, & what about its durability, etc? As design is only a few percent of total cost, it's a crazy situation that doesn't serve clients well. And that's what the Office for Fair Trading in the UK demands. Crazy!

Posted by: Richard Harris, FCD | August 2, 2007 9:35 AM

UPDATE: Our good friend was finally able to get through to her daughter a little bit after midnight. Turns out she had received a message that cell phone service was shut down for calls for awhile due to the emergency. She routinely drives across the bridge and heard about the collapse before getting in her car to head home.

We are very relieved that she is safe and now our concentration has turned toward ways to help others in the area. I'm already scheduled for a blood donation tomorrow for a very ill co-worker/friend of mine, however, the Twin Cities Red Cross will be needing monetary assistance so we'll do what we can to help them out in that way.

It is my hope that an extensive forensic examination of the facts and circumstances will result in some in depth answers and provide ways to improve these much needed structures.

Take care everyone and thanks for being out there,

Steve

Posted by: Steve Schlicht | August 2, 2007 9:48 AM

Steve,

Glad to hear your friend's daughter is safe. Got an email from my sister this morning that all her friends are safe too (she's glad she was house sitting in the area last week instead of this).

Best wishes all.

Posted by: MAJeff | August 2, 2007 10:03 AM

I heard on NPR this morning that this was a simple arche bridge and the span was 450 feet. And normal daily traffic is 220,000 across it.

During rush hour there was single lane traffic, moving slowly while pavers are there sounds like a bad idea.

Posted by: Steve_C | August 2, 2007 10:17 AM

I know they had finished one lane of resurfacing two or three weeks ago, and were about done on a second. I do remember 6 weeks ago, seeing work being done under the bridge deck. Who knows if any structure work was being done, or if something was nudged out of place. If you are looking south, and the lanes are labeled as so:
ABCD
Lanes B and D were being used, with A almost complete. Before lane D was resurfaced, traffic was concentrated in the center lanes. Perhaps the weight distribution had a role to play?

Posted by: Bjorn Watland | August 2, 2007 11:04 AM

The bridge must have been irreducibly complex...

Posted by: John Danley | August 1, 2007 10:56 PM

Actually, it was. I just read that a recent engineer's report found that the bridge was non-redundant. This means that if one part fails, the whole bridge fails.

Posted by: DSM | August 2, 2007 11:11 AM