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PZ Myers is a biologist and associate professor at the University of Minnesota, Morris.
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Humanity's first sin was faith; the first virtue was doubt.
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Category: Cephalopods • Weirdness
Posted on: June 25, 2010 7:46 AM, by PZ Myers
A "psychic" octopus named Paul is predicting the outcome of World Cup games, some Germans claim. I don't believe it. Why would an octopus be at all interested in a game where you can't use your arms?
I don't believe in precognition, but I do think octopuses are smart. It's more likely that Paul is sneaking out of his tank at night to read the sports magazines, and then makes informed decisions about likely results of the matches.
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Comments
Posted by: jidashdee
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June 25, 2010 8:02 AM
Yes, but you never hear about the Humboldt squid, dormouse and giraffe that have lost everything on their stupid, equally random, picks.
Posted by: sabazinus
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June 25, 2010 8:07 AM
Ahh, but perhaps this octopus has some kind of Elder Gods/Lovecraftian/Time Travel connection and knows exactly what will happen. "Smart" octopus indeed.
Posted by: binaballerina
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June 25, 2010 8:08 AM
You know, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the octopus had taught itself how to read and was 'predicting' the outcomes of matches by making guesses based on previous matches. It's not like they haven't been known to make great escapes from sealed tanks. Octopuses are smart fuckers - almost scarily so.
Posted by: Harry Varty
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June 25, 2010 8:11 AM
Predicting that Germany will beat England is not difficult. Now if he'd predicted that Italy and France would not get past the group stage, that would have been something.
Posted by: McCthulhu is taking ∞ to eat all the pi
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June 25, 2010 8:12 AM
Since Maggie the monkey, which was doing the NHL predictions, is retiring from TSN.ca I guess I can now become a fan of Paul the octopus. I hope he doesn't retire soon. I would call him a major slacker then since he only has to work every four years. If Paul's predictions turn out to be crap will we have to accuse octopuses of being woo-meisters too?
Posted by: jblumenfeld
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June 25, 2010 8:15 AM
Making an informed decision by reading the sports magazines? Your lack of sports savvy is showing.
That's like making an informed decision by reading the News of the World.
No, he's much more likely to be an ardent follower of European club soccer so he can watch all the best international players - he's probably got a whole bank of screens hidden in that tank somewhere, and he watches multiple matches simultaneously. After all, if he can operate 8 arms, he can surely follow a bunch of extremely boring 0-0 draws at the same time, can't he?
And binanallerina - if he's so smart, why's he watching soccer?
Posted by: copernico
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June 25, 2010 8:22 AM
Actually, "Octopus" is a frequent nickname for remarkably efficient goalies in soccer.
Posted by: Moggie
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June 25, 2010 8:23 AM
Wherever there's an octopus, there are suckers.
Posted by: ERV
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June 25, 2010 8:25 AM
binanallerina-- Octopuses are smart fuckers - almost scarily so.
I heard, the only reason why they havent taken over the planet, is that they dont pass their knowledge down to their offspring.
If octipi start raising their young, we are fucked.
:-O
Posted by: ultim8fury
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June 25, 2010 8:31 AM
Obviously he's not psychic, probably just a mentalist who's being misrepresented by his management.
Germany will undoubtedly beat England since we suck at...well pretty much everything.
Posted by: Brian, Defender of Tone Trolls
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June 25, 2010 8:33 AM
Ahhh .. there is more to life than just evidence.
Posted by: rturpin
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June 25, 2010 9:17 AM
Sure. That's just what your tentacled masters would have you say.
Posted by: Nancy New
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June 25, 2010 9:38 AM
Or at least, if they are psychic, they aren't wasting their psychic energy on soccer. Not even the World Cup.
Posted by: Epinephrine
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June 25, 2010 9:43 AM
Brian, DoTT:
get in the fuckin' sack.
;)
Posted by: cicely (Inadvertent Phytocidal Maniac)
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June 25, 2010 9:50 AM
Well...since Great Cthulhu isn't technically an octopus, I guess this could be true.
Posted by: daveau
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June 25, 2010 9:57 AM
Yes, but who is it wagering on? Put your money where your beak is!
Posted by: octopode.myopenid.com
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June 25, 2010 9:59 AM
McCthulhu #5:
Sadly, Paul is not likely to see another World Cup after this one, so his predicting days may be numbered.
Most octopus species are very short-lived (they tend to self-destruct after breeding too).
I hope Paul's making a couple of squid out of it while he lasts though.
Posted by: NMcC
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June 25, 2010 10:30 AM
"Why would an octopus be at all interested in a game where you can't use your arms?"
Hmm...have you never heard of a guy called Maradona? Or Thierry Henry?
Posted by: eyesoars
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June 25, 2010 10:35 AM
And here I thought that Octopi had 8 legs.
Apparently the Japanese too regard octopi as having 8 legs, which made the Secret anti-perspirant ads rather more entertaining.
Posted by: davem
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June 25, 2010 10:47 AM
Just redefine them as legs. Sorted. Or just make him an awesome goalie. Weird that a German octopus reckons Germany are going to win. Probably trying to keep himself off the menu.Posted by: SeeDubya
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June 25, 2010 10:53 AM
WTF is it with you Limeys? I can understand not wanting to get your hopes up only to be let down on a frequent basis but what the hell are you saving it for now? This is the World Cup, FFS. How the hell you ever had a world spanning empire with that kind of can-do attitude is a fucking mystery. Have you evolved to the point where your backbone is vestigial? Even the odds makers have you as the favorite (not by much, granted.)
It's Germany! Your arch-rivals! With the likely chance to put Argentina in its place after that! What the fuck more could you ask for ?!?! Too hard? Awwwww.... poor diddums.
Posted by: Brian, Defender of Tone Trolls
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June 25, 2010 11:07 AM
@Epinephrine.
I was asking for that:-)
Posted by: davem
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June 25, 2010 11:10 AM
It's just our way of making the opposition feel over confident. The only thing that could possibly be better than beating the Germans is beating the Argentinians. But even better, the high prize, is beating the Germas, then the Argentinians, and finally the Yanks... :0)Posted by: SeeDubya
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June 25, 2010 11:15 AM
Whoah whoah. I'm not asking for miracles here. ;)
Posted by: wsa
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June 25, 2010 12:04 PM
How dare you heathen! This is a clear manifestation of the Flying Spaghetti Monster and His Noodly divinity! XD
Posted by: Deluded Creodont
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June 25, 2010 12:27 PM
PZ might be able to back me up (or shoot me down) on the authenticity of this story, but I heard that at the Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport, Oregon that they had an Octopus who would watch as the staff left every evening. One morning, the first person to arrive discovered the octopus dead, out of the water, with one tentacle wrapped around the doorknob.
No idea if it's true or not, but that's what I was told.
Posted by: wylann
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June 25, 2010 1:32 PM
Haven't read all the comments yet, so I hope this wasn't done already...
I for one welcome our psychic cephalopod overlords.
...but, they knew that already!
Posted by: Cuttlefish, OM, CR
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June 25, 2010 1:57 PM
I actually like this story--the German zoos are letting various animals (including Paul the octopus) try their... er, hands... at predicting the games, as a publicity stunt to take advantage of World Cup Fever. Paul has simply been the most accurate thus far (only over 3 games, so not even statistically significant yet).
PZ, you missed the gallery of pics at Der Spiegel (I link to them in my post, below); some great shots of Paul, and some cute pics of some of the other animals (my favorite--a pair of antelopes with a soccer ball; there is also a pic of a pair of Norway Lobsters with a ball, but that just makes me hungry).
http://digitalcuttlefish.blogspot.com/2010/06/paul-octopus.html
Posted by: Kausik Datta
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June 25, 2010 3:33 PM
But... But... The Octopus is named - Paul!!!
Coincidence? I think not!
Posted by: daveau
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June 25, 2010 5:27 PM
I thought the walrus was Paul.
Posted by: McCthulhu is taking ∞ to eat all the pi
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June 25, 2010 6:01 PM
@Cicely #15: I thought Cthulhu was psionic, not necessarily psychic. He can melt your brains with a thought, or make you pick your nose 'til it bleeds, but I'm not sure if he can read thoughts.
@Daveau #30: Goo Goo Ga-Joob! Notice the octopus isn't wearing shoes!!! It's a sign! Play his underwater noises backwards and you hear 'Germany will win! Germany will win!'
Posted by: amphiox
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June 25, 2010 7:32 PM
But that doesn't sound so smart at all. . . .
Or, more accurately, just clever enough to conceive of and carry out a stupid, hare-brained, self-destructive scheme.
Hmm. Reminds me very much of a certain species of chordate. . . .
Posted by: kev_s
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June 26, 2010 4:07 AM
It makes predictions for suckers using its suckers. Neat.
Posted by: Didaktylos
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June 26, 2010 6:55 AM
Nah ... you've all got it all wrong: he has minions place bets and then go and fix the results to be what he needs.
Posted by: https://me.yahoo.com/a/O5ONI2ghn9dHEAQvC_ECRm038uHG#e39ed
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June 26, 2010 8:38 AM
I note this highly meaningful juxtaposition in my news feed:
Octopus Paul predicts German win over England - 19 hours ago
Brit PM to avoid Merkel at G20 during WC game - 1 day ago
Posted by: rejistania
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June 27, 2010 1:01 AM
There is a difference between seriously claiming that Paul is psychic and just doing it as a spectacle. I doubt that anyone in Oberhause takes it seriously and what I read on twitter about the 'Krakenorakel' also did not imply that anyone believes in their psychic powers. It seemed to me more like a wonderfully childlike game of pretend. And a marketing gag for the aquarium.
Posted by: Florian
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July 5, 2010 3:45 PM
Well, now Paul has predicted 5 games correctly! I don´t know what he has to say about our semi-final against Spain, but I´d sure love to hear it. By the way: We still shouldn´t rank his intelligence too high. If he was really smart, he wouldn´t be living in Oberhausen. I know the place and believe me, nobody would want to live there...
Posted by: rhaguirrem
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July 7, 2010 4:26 PM
It´s Six-In-A-Row now...