…and this is a 
I know you all mean well, but 30-40 emails a day just about the German octopus 'predicting' World Cup matches is wearing me out. I have to explain a few things.
Cephalopods are not psychic. Nothing is.
If this were real, it would be Paul the Precognitive Octopus. It's telling the future, not reading minds.
Cephalopods cannot see into the future. Nothing can.
As this game is set up, there's a simple 50% chance in any trial that the octopus will guess correctly. It has guessed correctly 6 times; there's a 1 in 64 chance you could get the same result flipping a quarter.
Cephalopods are smart and responsive. This scenario is ripe for the Clever Hans effect, which means the handler's knowledge about likely winners can greatly improve the odds of the observed result.
I'm sure that the aquarium housing Paul could use a little extra money. If the octopus actually does have paranormal powers, they should apply for Randi's million dollar challenge. I'm sure they won't, because they know that in a well-controlled experiment, Paul's amazing abilities would suddenly disappear.
I really detest this kind of prolonged silly indulgence in a common supernatural belief by a purportedly scientific organization. Once is a lark, a joke, a funny bit of self-mockery — stretching it out turns it into an exercise in misinformation.
Psychics are lying parasites. I hate to see a beautiful cephalopod smeared with that ignoble reputation.
FREE THE OCTOPUS! IMPRISON THE DISHONEST MEDIA!
Oh, dear. Right after posting this, I got email from Brian Souter.
Hi Mr Myers
I just saw your article:
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2010/07/i_am_really_tired_of_paul_the.php
With its:
'Cephalopods cannot see into the future. Nothing can.'
And
'Psychics are lying parasites. I hate to see a beautiful cephalopod smeared with that ignoble reputation.
Well Paul is proving you wrong!
Can octopi lie?
So far Pauls 100% success at the World Cup proves your scepticism is unjustified, not to mention pettily vindictive, as you see your cafully crafted world being kicked about like a jabulani ball. He does have psychic powers...and so do many if not most people. Its only the opressive rage of witch hunting sceptics, that presents this from flowering. Out in the real world...these things do happen.
Paul is luckier than most psychics tho: hes doesnt have to deal with the rage of sceptics influencing his predictions...Hes immune to the rant of the Randis.
Pauls done the world a real service! Showing that such gifts are real...And its being broadcast live... to the world!...randi the bandi can start writing that check!
What a pity to see science smeared by last ditch self-serving lying in the face of real and real world evidence...
Regards and GO PAUL!
Brian
Whoa. I guess I've been taught a lesson.
Comments
Posted by: Andyo
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July 8, 2010 6:02 PM
Hmmm... Science?Posted by: Mattir-ritated
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July 8, 2010 6:05 PM
I think the world is getting tired of Paul the Octopus, and suggest that we introduce him to the necro-erotic squid from the other day.
I have to admit that I always get Clever Hans, the arithmetically talented horse, confused with Little Hans, the Sigmund Freud patient who was phobic of horses in the street.
Posted by: Kel, The Privileged View From Nowhere
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July 8, 2010 6:06 PM
pattern-seeking brains...
Posted by: Brownian, Most Vicious & Petty of Pharyngulites
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July 8, 2010 6:06 PM
Then how do you explain Cuttlefish's posting of poems on a particular topic mere minutes after he learns of it? I don't care how many tentacles he has, he's only got one brain, and it's just not possible for him to work that fast.
Nope, prognostication is the only answer.
Posted by: Brownian, Most Vicious & Petty of Pharyngulites
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July 8, 2010 6:09 PM
Just don't confuse me with Little Hans, or no gay sex for you. (You see, they say the size of a man's Hans corresponds to...)
Posted by: Yubal
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July 8, 2010 6:09 PM
calamari, anyone?
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 6:09 PM
I think the world is getting tired of Paul the Octopus
well, at most we'd have to put up with him for a year.
OTOH, it's a marketing gimick, so they'll probably replace it with another octo when this one dies soon.
Posted by: palefury
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July 8, 2010 6:11 PM
At least they don't want to dry and smoke Paul's brain to predict the future.
Posted by: chappio
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July 8, 2010 6:13 PM
You are just mad because you realize that he is GOD and not you.
Posted by: Mattir-ritated
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July 8, 2010 6:14 PM
Little Hans was phobic of horses, because (IIRC) he saw a horse's Hans once and conflated it with that of his father. Hence he thought that if he went out on the street, the horses of Vienna might attack and remove his own Hans equipment.
Posted by: Caine, ghetto féministe
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July 8, 2010 6:17 PM
YEAH! Er, this ^.
Posted by: Silič O'Nopolitanopoulos, Färschdbischuf Beesknees aus Ulm und Klein Elguth, Elector Pharynguline.
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July 8, 2010 6:19 PM
Well, duh, they're not gonna try now. Couldn't you have made that suggestion a little earlier? You know, before the World Cup is over? There're not enough games left now, nor time to negotiate the protocol.And by the time the next WC rolls round (2012?). Paul'll be dead.
You meanie.
--o--
Just to confuse the Hans issue, Hans(en) is short for John(son) and "hans" means "his" in Danish.
Posted by: Brownian, Most Vicious & Petty of Pharyngulites
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July 8, 2010 6:25 PM
So, Hans was afraid he might encounter a nihilist horse who would come back tomorrow and cut off hans Hansen?
Psychology is confusing.
Posted by: cody.cameron
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July 8, 2010 6:25 PM
Right on!
Posted by: Dorset Troll
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July 8, 2010 6:25 PM
Can’t any of you see, Paul the Octopus it the One we’ve been waiting for. The one true Son of the Flying Spaghetti Monster. Only He knows the outcome of every football match. The messiah of the beautiful game, He has been sent to guide us. Hallelujah. And I'll wager Mummy the Octopus was a virgin.
Posted by: ericjamieson
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July 8, 2010 6:27 PM
Wait, so people are actually taking this seriously? Every news account I've read seems like even his keepers are just treating it as an amusing stunt or coincidence that doesn't have any serious basis. Granted I've mostly read about it on the BBC so maybe other outlets are being less light-hearted about it.
Posted by: DanishDynamite
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July 8, 2010 6:27 PM
PZ:
Bla,bla,bla....
The long of the short is that this wonderful cephalopod has correctly predicted the outcome 6 out of 6 times.
Stop being a pussy and acknowledge the superiority.
Posted by: bfrozema
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July 8, 2010 6:28 PM
Screw the million dollar challenge.
Tomorrow he'll be predicting the outcome of the finals. If he predicts victory for Spain, we'll know for sure he hasn't got the powers he claims to have!
(disclaimer: i'm Dutch)
Posted by: Andyo
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July 8, 2010 6:29 PM
I would like to place bets on what the excuse will be if the octopus fails, although come on, the odds on the remaining matches are not exactly 50-50.
I will go with "it can only predict its homeboys' matches, not other countries'".
Posted by: ericjamieson
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July 8, 2010 6:29 PM
Also hard-core sports fans are superstitious about EVERYTHING. Even though I'm watching the game from 10,000 miles away on TV, I better wear my lucky jersey or my team can't possibly win! I wouldn't expect them to be any less silly about this octopus.
Posted by: Mattir-ritated
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July 8, 2010 6:31 PM
So Brownian's is the Clever Hans, not the Little Hans? Can it count? Figure the tip on a bar bill? Balance the checkbook? I await photos.
Posted by: SES
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July 8, 2010 6:34 PM
I doubt if anybody writing in to you about the octopus seriously believes it was actually foretelling the outcomes. But it did seem to be a topic tailor-made for a comment from you. I, for one, was expecting something a bit more jovial and a little less irascible.
Posted by: https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawmwfIy5lS0M1FrefBAbBucrUx3OIfV1vBs
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July 8, 2010 6:35 PM
Blasphemy!
Paul is without any doubt the living incarnation of His Noodly Appendage, the Flying Spaghetti Monster. He is a godhood and as such is making the matches end just the way he wants them to. While he could read people's minds if he wanted to, he doesn't want to. That would be boring. Consequently he's neither psychic nor, technically, precognitive.
He's using the football matches as proof of his power! You fools should bow to his might and start worshiping him! A visit to his aquarium might be a good start for that.
Posted by: Forbidden Snowflake
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July 8, 2010 6:35 PM
And he's got the noodly appendages to show for it.Posted by: DominEditrix
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July 8, 2010 6:35 PM
PZ's just jealous because another Paul has the limelight. Of course cephalopods can prognosticate - time has a mere two hands*; an octopus has eight. Time must fall to the superior force.
* Well, three, if one counts the second hand.
Posted by: Dania
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July 8, 2010 6:35 PM
Ha. I was talking about this with my father just today!.
That some people are taking this seriously is just stupid. It's a joke, a PR campaign to take advantage of the World Cup. Even Paul's keepers seem to acknowledge that. They're doing that with lots of animals, Paul just happened to be lucky several times. Not a big deal.
Posted by: Dalton
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July 8, 2010 6:36 PM
"So far Pauls 100% success at the World Cup proves your scepticism is unjustified, not to mention pettily vindictive, as you see your cafully crafted world being kicked about like a jabulani ball."
Hahaha... Really? It proves it, huh? I didn't know 6 was an acceptable number for something like this. Give 1,000,000 and I might be satisfied.
Posted by: 'Tis Himself, Quel Dommage
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July 8, 2010 6:37 PM
That's what the biologists want us to believe.
Posted by: Dania
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July 8, 2010 6:40 PM
Don't forget that Germany still has to play the third place playoff game on Saturday...
Posted by: makyui
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July 8, 2010 6:42 PM
Oh gee... I didn't realize skeptics were rounding up "psychics" and burning them at the stake. On a less literal meaning, I didn't realize holding psychics to the same standards of reality as everything else was a witch hunt.
That's a convenient out, though. "Psychics are real! If only you spooty skeptics weren't distracting them with your disbelief, you would see it!"
Right. And fairies don't exist because people said "I don't believe" until they all went extinct, and God would surely show himself if we all would just have enough faith.
Posted by: Forbidden Snowflake
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July 8, 2010 6:43 PM
I have only this to say:
Schadenfreude and persecution complex can seldom be found in the same paragraph, but here they are all the same.
Posted by: Brownian, Most Vicious & Petty of Pharyngulites
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July 8, 2010 6:44 PM
Mattir wrote:
Only in binary. In/Out.
Shh. Don't mention 'tip' around it. [Whispers] According to Wikipedia, it's a relatively common practice in Alberta.
Never tried. Wait here.
...
...
...
Yep. So long as I don't jiggle too much.
Facebook made me take them down. They've got some sort of 'policy'.
PZ wrote:
I certainly hope you don't think it's one on statistics.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 6:45 PM
I, for one, was expecting something a bit more jovial and a little less irascible.
you mean like this?
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2010/06/octopuses_do_not_have_psychic.php
sometimes, getting the same thing sent to you repeatedly becomes as irritating as getting those penis enlargement ads as junk mail.
the funny kinda dies out after the first hundred or so...
Posted by: SES
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July 8, 2010 6:46 PM
Ooops. I guess Brian's e-mail proves me wrong (apparently some people are taking it seriously).
Posted by: Arthur Taylor
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July 8, 2010 6:47 PM
I've become so separated from the entire World Cup experience (not easy in England) that all I'm exposed to is this damn octopus and YouTube vuvzela buttons.
It's frankly a bit surreal.
Posted by: tacroy
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July 8, 2010 6:49 PM
You guys just don't get it. Paul isn't predicting the outcome of the games, he's picking them. He decided although it was a fun game the mussels were starting to affect his figure and it was time to stop a couple of days ago, and that's why Germany lost to Spain.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 6:50 PM
World Cup...
that's a boat race, right?
Posted by: Silič O'Nopolitanopoulos, Färschdbischuf Beesknees aus Ulm und Klein Elguth, Elector Pharynguline.
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July 8, 2010 6:51 PM
I had to look up what a Jabulani is. Pity. I hoped it'd be something exotic like those Aztec/Inka/Whatsit solid rubber balls, played with the hips, where the winner (or loser?) was then sacrificed to the gods.
Posted by: spiderxray
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July 8, 2010 6:53 PM
The octopus was just lucky, real fortune telling requires bird brains.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2010/07/08/VI2010070803784.html
Posted by: Sven DiMilo
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July 8, 2010 6:53 PM
I should think so. Things with less than 5% probability can never happen by chance alone. Everybody knows that.
Posted by: tahotai
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July 8, 2010 6:53 PM
The possibility of the predictions influencing the results shouldn't be discounted either should there be very superstitious players on either side.
Posted by: bfrozema
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July 8, 2010 6:53 PM
Forget Paul, here's Mani the parakeet who has allready predicted the outcome.
Obviously, he's right and therefore proves that all kinds of animals have psycich powers ...as do many if not most people.
So there.
Posted by: Caine, ghetto féministe
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July 8, 2010 6:55 PM
Damn it. Who leaked the news about the witch hunts? We're supposed to be keeping quiet about that. I've been quite mild, actually. All the psychics who have wandered onto my property, I've simply sealed them up in trees, a la Merlin.
Yes, Brian, Yes, they can. Do not believe Paul when he whispers to you that you'll be eaten first. He lies, Brian, he lies.
Posted by: Sven DiMilo
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July 8, 2010 6:55 PM
Nope. That's my jock size, son.
*waddles from room*
Posted by: rturpin
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July 8, 2010 6:56 PM
Of course, that's what we'd expect you to say. Being enthralled to your tentacled overlords.
Posted by: Qwerty
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July 8, 2010 6:58 PM
Maybe the octopus could tell the "true believers" when Jesus is showing up again?
Posted by: catta
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July 8, 2010 6:59 PM
Jeebus. Stay calm! Nobody's taking this seriously. It's just a bit of fun, the octopus is having fun too as far as I know, and in case you hadn't noticed, the World Cup is a Very Big Deal in the rest of the world. Not in the "will rely on woo-woo" sense for the vast majority of people, but for a while, everything revolves around football. You can't escape it - media, merchandising, the lot. That may very well include the way feeding time is presented at a zoo for a few weeks.
Geting upset over this is a bit like saying fortune cookies promote belief in prophecy (ban Chinese restaurants!), celebrating Halloween promotes belief in actual ghosts/spirits (stop trick or treating!), and celebrating new year with fireworks promotes belief in actual spirits that need to be driven out with fire and noise (just sit at home quietly, or you're promoting dangerous superstitions!).
Like everyone else I've been following the world cup, and whenever anyone refers to Paul it's with a grin, with a joke, tongue firmly in cheek. To reiterate: nobody I talked to about the world cup and the octopus has any inclination towards believing in psychics, and that's a LOT of people (I work in an international company based in Europe, with employees from all over the world, supporting all kinds of football teams, all having fun, none of them potential psychic victims). The only thing everyone agrees on is: cephalopods are awesome and not psychic.
Just sit back and let us have our fun. The cup's over on Sunday.
Posted by: timgueguen
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July 8, 2010 7:03 PM
Apparently PETA, never missing a chance to get some free publicity, are calling for the aquarium to release Paul back into the sea.
Posted by: ginckgo
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July 8, 2010 7:04 PM
It's not octopi, it's octopodes. sheesh.
Posted by: colluvial
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July 8, 2010 7:05 PM
I just saw this effect the other day when a well-trained border collie was waved off the sidewalk and placed in the down position by the owner's hand signals.
Posted by: Caine, ghetto féministe
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July 8, 2010 7:06 PM
catta:
How about you take your own advice? We actually do know what the world cup is, it's been discussed here ad nauseum. Maybe if you could figure out what it's like to get 40 emails every fricking day about Paul the Psychic Octopus, you'd get why it would get tiresome and annoying, eh?
Posted by: makyui
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July 8, 2010 7:08 PM
Haha. Tell that to Brian Souter.
Posted by: Sven DiMilo
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July 8, 2010 7:09 PM
Excellent! Bring it!!
It's octopuses.
Posted by: MJP
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July 8, 2010 7:10 PM
Thanks, Brian Souter. Your email to PZ broke my doucheprickometer.
Posted by: Sven DiMilo
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July 8, 2010 7:12 PM
heeeeey, WAITAMINIT!
Has anyone ever seen PZ Myers and Paul the
psychicprocogprecongfuture-telling octopus in the same place?I smell sockpuppet!!!
(it smells kind of like low tide)
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 7:20 PM
It's octopuses.
if a group of different species, yeah.
if a group of the same species, plural is the same as the singular.
fish/fishes
wait... I think we've done this before.
Posted by: danielbrownphd
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July 8, 2010 7:21 PM
PZ, if you're sick of the psychic octopus, there is always the Tree Octopus that eats Velociraptors
Posted by: Seifer
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July 8, 2010 7:23 PM
Ummmm... according to wiki, Paul's "predictions" are not 100%.
Not that a stupid e-mail like Brian's needs a response.
Posted by: Betelgeuse
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July 8, 2010 7:26 PM
Yah. Right. In one corner of the world they're on national tv comparing the *powers* of Paul to those of a card-picking bird, trying to bet on which one of them's the better bet. I swear that ran for about 7 minutes.
If they go down that route when they could talk about more news-worthy things, then that's somebody's sense of fun gone plonk.
Whatever.
And I like Octopi! What's wrong with Octopi?
Posted by: jvl
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July 8, 2010 7:26 PM
A quick browsing of available articles suggest the following: 1) he had an 80% success rate during the 2008 Euro Cup (so he's not really batting 1000), 2) he's only been picking for games where Germany is playing, & 3) glasses containing mussels are designated by flags of the countries who are playing.
I hypothesize that he picks the glass with a flag with the most yellow in it (red might play a role, too?). This would result in him picking Germany in just about any game other than those against Spain. Simple enough to test (the only difficulty being that to test the "psychic" side of the claim requires that an international football game occur after the prediction). But really, if he's displaying a simple behavioral response to a stimulus, there's no need to examine correlation to events outside his tank...
Anyone know of a link that shows his picks for individual games (for the Euro Cup in addition to the World Cup) to add a little more credence to this hypothesis?
Posted by: SeeDubya
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July 8, 2010 7:27 PM
I defer to your cephalopod expertise regarding their cognitive abilities but how do we know it's not the mussels he is feeding on that are making the predictions? Perhaps trying to bring meaning to their otherwise meaningless lives through selfless sacrifice by intentionally attracting Paul's greedy attention. Haven't you ever wondered what the little bastards are up to in there all day everyday?
Posted by: A. Nuran
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July 8, 2010 7:28 PM
Oh, for fuck's sake. It's a joke. Everyone knows it's a joke. Take a chill-pill, PZ.
Posted by: Arthur Taylor
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July 8, 2010 7:30 PM
I had octopieces in Japan, does that count?
Posted by: alareth
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July 8, 2010 7:31 PM
It is my heartfelt belief that PETA was founded by the fur and meatpacking industries in an effort to discredit and marginalize legitmate supporters of animal rights.
Their outrageous antics ensure anyone with valid complaints are ignored.
Posted by: Mattir-ritated
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July 8, 2010 7:32 PM
PZ can't take a chillpill, the TrophyWife™ took them with her to TAM or wherever she went. So he's stuck reading the 40 emails a day about psychic mollusks. That's gotta be tiring.
Posted by: Kieranfoy, Faerie Godfather of Death, GMKSC, OED
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July 8, 2010 7:33 PM
Wait, it's a psyker? Just call the Inquisition, and have the Black Ships haul it's betentacled arse to Terra to be fed to the Golden Throne.
Problem solved, and we can get back to glorying in the Imperial Truth.
/geekery
Seriously, even if this dude was right about the six for six, that's not all that impressive. We want moar correct guesses!
Posted by: Betelgeuse
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July 8, 2010 7:34 PM
Being aware that this is a joke != not being exasperated about the stoopid amounts of hype.
They're perfectly compatible lines of thought.
Posted by: Dania
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July 8, 2010 7:40 PM
The Wiki page about him. Notice that he picks Germany most of the times. Looks like is greatest luck is liking the flag of a team like Germany...
Posted by: Matt Keefe
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July 8, 2010 7:41 PM
You're sick of him? He knocked England out of the World Cup.
Posted by: ambulocetacean
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July 8, 2010 7:45 PM
This one time in Amsterdam I was getting sloshed on jenevers. One of them had a name that translated as "Hans in the Cellar" because it was the one women were supposed to drink when they were pregnant.
Posted by: Fred The Hun
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July 8, 2010 7:47 PM
Spanish Braised Octopus in Paprika Sauce
http://fishcooking.about.com/od/octopusrecipes/r/octopus_paprika.htm
Oh, wait! Spain beat Germany, maybe there's a German recipe... Yep!
"Psychic Braised Octopus"
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 7:49 PM
A quick browsing of available articles suggest the following: 1) he had an 80% success rate during the 2008 Euro Cup
yes, I saw that.
quite odd, since most common octopus don't usually live more than about a year.
even the largest species don't live for more than 3.
I'd bet this isn't even the same "Paul".
Posted by: Cuttlefish, OM, CR
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July 8, 2010 7:51 PM
The octopus isn't a psychic--but--
He can tell if you're normal, or if you're a nut.
Paul the octopus has doubled my blog hits, without the annoying letters that PZ gets. Also, it would appear that in some language(s), "cuttlefish" and "octopus" are synonyms, since the majority of the google searches are using some variant of "paul cuttlefish".
I wouldn't have thought this was anything other than good publicity for the zoo, but I have heard too many news outlets talking about it (and about the coach's "lucky blue sweater") as if they expected that people were taking it seriously.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 7:51 PM
I hypothesize that he picks the glass with a flag with the most yellow in it (red might play a role, too?).
they are colorblind.
might be focusing on some pattern though.
Posted by: Sunday Afternoon
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July 8, 2010 7:53 PM
Do you think it was this Brian Souter?
Posted by: https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawmwfIy5lS0M1FrefBAbBucrUx3OIfV1vBs
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July 8, 2010 7:59 PM
@Cuttlefish (#73)
I wonder where he got his Ph.D in psychology.
Posted by: https://me.yahoo.com/a/xfJ8w2QEpfDa0MJsT7hMUfMEyPe1#48dd0
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July 8, 2010 8:04 PM
@Yubal, 6: Yeah, that's what I've been wondering too. Will someone butcher the octopus and then sell it off in a controlled manner so that its "psychic" powers can be "shared?" Or even better, they should go homeopathic with it. Either grab some of the water from the tank or maybe preserve the animal in alcohol. Take the liquid and dilute it, then sell as "psychic" enhancement fluids.
... That I've thought of those scenarios frightens me. Whether it's because I could or because I know someone would buy these things for those effects, I'm not sure.
Posted by: davem
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July 8, 2010 8:04 PM
According to Wiki, he is a English-born octopus. Some shenagins going on here, methinks...Posted by: Fred The Hun
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July 8, 2010 8:04 PM
danielbrownphd @57,
The Tree Octopus eating a Velociraptor makes perfect sense, but, but... in a Maple tree? No freakin way! Now the shrimp on a cactus, yeah baby!
Of course I may have been somewhat influenced by that giant yellow Eastern Lubber grasshopper I just saw out in my back yard a few minutes ago.
Posted by: https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawkFddeQNBvxzawaAjXAg5ctHl9yhplOiQk
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July 8, 2010 8:06 PM
The people who take this seriously are long gone (read: insane) already. Don't fret too much.
And if anything could actually predict the future, it would definitely be an octopus.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 8:11 PM
he is a English-born octopus
again, probably O. vulgaris (cue wisecracks)
does not live more than 15months.
so I psychically predict that there have actually been multiple "paul the octopus"
Posted by: James R. Palmer II
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July 8, 2010 8:12 PM
You should say the only thing that does predict the future (depending intervals) are data sets extrapulated out of multiple trials or mesurements.
Posted by: Rodrigo
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July 8, 2010 8:13 PM
Maybe you didn't know this, but this Octopus (Paul) failed to predict the winner of the last Eurocup, so this octopus doesn't seem to be so magic after all.
All for the money and attention! Free Paul!
Posted by: https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawmwfIy5lS0M1FrefBAbBucrUx3OIfV1vBs
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July 8, 2010 8:17 PM
@Rodrigo (#83)
As has been previously stated, he doesn't predict the games, he picks them. Now, I can still see your confusion about the discrepancies, but that's simply due to Paul's ways being mysterious.
Posted by: Yoritomo
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July 8, 2010 8:18 PM
Aren't cephalopods supposed to be color-blind? Sure, he can still tell black from white, but how much of a colored flag can Paul really recognize? If he had to decide between, say, France and Italy, would he even see a difference?
Posted by: beth.lehman
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July 8, 2010 8:27 PM
Yes yes, we'd all be psychic if only we believed. Don't believe Brian? YOU'RE HOLDING US BACK!!1!
Posted by: Marella
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July 8, 2010 8:34 PM
Oh really? I had no idea that different species changed the grammar! So 'All the fish in the sea' it should be fishes? Not convinced sorry. You got a citation for that?
I prefer 'octopods' myself.
Posted by: Ing: PhD Trollologist
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July 8, 2010 8:36 PM
So...
Now that Paul's predictions have failed I think only one question remains. Deep fried or sushimi?
Posted by: SkepDad
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July 8, 2010 8:37 PM
Paul is clearly a Prophet of the FSM. The physical resemblance is startling.
He reveals his noodly wonders in mysterious ways!
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 8:38 PM
Not convinced sorry. You got a citation for that?
sure do.
It's standard scientific usage as well.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_plural
there are lots of other sources, just google up some plural searches.
Posted by: Andyo
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July 8, 2010 8:40 PM
It's octopodes only if you say it with a British accent.Posted by: Eamon Knight
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July 8, 2010 8:40 PM
Speaking of psychics, a few of us were just out tonight pamphleteering in front of a "Psychic Experince" show by this guy.
The venue called the cops on us. Yes, really. Blog post coming later....
Posted by: James F
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July 8, 2010 8:42 PM
jvl #60 wrote:
The same thing occurred to me, as a bit of a vexillology fan. The influence of yellow would hold more often than not in the UEFA Euro 2008 results, too (Germany over Poland, Austria, Portugal, and Turkey, but not Croatia over Germany or, incorrectly, Germany over Spain). Gather up some bivalves, this needs more testing!
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 8:44 PM
Gather up some bivalves, this needs more testing!
nope:
color.
blind.
you might try playing with flag patterns though.
Posted by: James F
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July 8, 2010 8:48 PM
Ichthyic,
Ah, well there goes a hypothesis before it leaves the gate! A pattern test would be interesting.
Posted by: Ing: PhD Trollologist
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July 8, 2010 8:54 PM
Are Cephlapods true colorblind or just Red-green colorblind?
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 8:55 PM
start with a pub med search first:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=pattern%20recognition%20cephalopod&itool=QuerySuggestion
Posted by: Rodrigo
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July 8, 2010 8:57 PM
#84 Well, of course he picks them! but I'm really into the World Cup, so I say the headlines of every sport magazine, and 'prediction' is a word that I'm into now with this octopus being so popular into those sport pages hahaha. But well, English is not my first language, so you have to excuse my errors.
Saludos!
Posted by: 'Tis Himself, Quel Dommage
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July 8, 2010 8:57 PM
Who names an octopus "Paul"? That's not a proper name for an octopus. Squids can be named Paul, although Jeremy is a more squidly name. But octopuses are named Bob or Jim or Fred.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 8:59 PM
Are Cephlapods true colorblind or just Red-green colorblind?
completely color blind.
http://www.mbl.edu/mrc/hanlon/pdfs/hanlon_currentbiol_2007.pdf
I recall being quite surprised by that myself the first time I heard it.
Posted by: Ing: PhD Trollologist
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July 8, 2010 9:00 PM
Or Augustus
Or Octavius
Or Otto
Or Mr. Squirts
Or Mittens
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 9:02 PM
@Tis:
sorry I forgot which thread I posted this request in:
which Presidency?
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 9:05 PM
Or Augustus
Or Octavius
Or Otto
Or Mr. Squirts
Or Mittens
I suppose Fluffy is out of the question?
Posted by: Rev. BigDumbChimp
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July 8, 2010 9:05 PM
sigh
Posted by: ohioobserver
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July 8, 2010 9:07 PM
I just tossed 6 tails in a row. 1/64 odds. Can happen. Does happen. Does the quarter have psychic powers?
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 9:09 PM
Does the quarter have psychic powers?
Holy CRAP! I'll give you *counts pocket change* 27 cents for that quarter!
Posted by: Ing: PhD Trollologist
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July 8, 2010 9:13 PM
If these guys were smart they'd find a way to put Paul out to stud and sell his offspring to people marketed as "Pet psychic octopus"
Posted by: makyui
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July 8, 2010 9:13 PM
ohioobserver, that makes you GOD.
*bows and grovels*
Posted by: Ing: PhD Trollologist
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July 8, 2010 9:17 PM
Off topic but possibly interesting
Today an old lady stopped in front of my house to steal weeds from my garden. When I confronted her she said that it was good for breast cancer and asked if she could have them for her daughter who has it. Not sure I did the right thing, but I let her take them while mentioning that I'm not sure that'll work.
Any thoughts for a situation like that...i feel guilty now :(
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 9:20 PM
Any thoughts for a situation like that...
give the woman the name of your doctor, or a local clinic, and make sure they contact them?
I'd give her my GP's card, and write the number of a good local clinic.
just to make sure at least she had REAL information at hand.
Posted by: KingUber
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July 8, 2010 9:21 PM
I can see into the future. I predict the sun will rise tomorrow.
Posted by: spiderxray
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July 8, 2010 9:21 PM
@ginckgo #49, @SvenDiMilo #53, @Betelgeuse #59, @Andyo #91 and anyone who cares what the plural of octopus is, took me a while to find but I remembered seeing this some while back... http://www.merriam-webster.com/video/0015-octopus.htm
Posted by: SomeGuyWanderingBy
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July 8, 2010 9:25 PM
Being color blind, on the few occasions where Paul has chosen a team other than Germany it would have looked essentially identical to him. I would not presume to guess why Das Krakenorakle might find three horizontal stripes so appealing.
Posted by: Jezebel
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July 8, 2010 9:27 PM
I beg to differ. Intelligent people can.
Posted by: maddogdelta
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July 8, 2010 9:31 PM
What is really sad is that the future is accurately predicted all the time.
How? Well, the standard methods... for example, if we have a population of bacteria, and we stress the environment, we can predict that a new strain of bacteria will result that is a strain that is better adapted for a stressed environment.
If I drop a marble from the top of a building, i can predict very accurately how long it will take to fall.
With properly entered data, there are computer programs that will predict precisely a flight profile of a model rocket.
These, and many other predictions are made routinely, and nobody seems to be amazed at it.
Yet some asshat with a spoon predicts the symbol in an envelope that you will pick.. (when you aren't allowed to see whatever slight of hand shenanigans he pulls) and the gullible trip out over it.
Posted by: Aaron Baker
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July 8, 2010 9:39 PM
They may have flogged this joke too many times, but I'm inclined to agree that it's still a joke for the people pushing it.
Posted by: Andyo
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July 8, 2010 9:48 PM
I just tossed: H, T, H, H, T, H.
1/64 odds. Can happen.
Posted by: Aquaria
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July 8, 2010 9:48 PM
I'm sure that the aquarium housing Paul could use a little extra money. If the octopus actually does have paranormal powers, they should apply for Randi's million dollar challenge. I'm sure they won't, because they know that in a well-controlled experiment, Paul's amazing abilities would suddenly disappear.
Have the octopus predict San Francisco Giants games.
Trust me--he won't get it right even 50% of the time. Or he won't as long as Melon Head Bochy can't stick with a lineup because he thinks he has to play his overpaid/under-producing veterans.
Posted by: James R. Palmer II
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July 8, 2010 10:01 PM
Maybe they want to take the piss out of PZ or Paul Zachery. jk
Posted by: Claire-chan
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July 8, 2010 10:02 PM
THANK YOU PZ.
I am sick and tired of nonsense.
Posted by: James F
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July 8, 2010 10:08 PM
A commentary on Paul and the flag colors.
It's in Spanish, but the gist is that a retired Peruvian biologist is arguing that Paul is attracted by the bright colors of flags like Spain's. In light of the above information, I'm assuming he means brightness rather than discrimination between reds, yellows, etc.
Posted by: blindfaithiness
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July 8, 2010 10:10 PM
Does this mean he's taking Randi's Challenge? When and where?
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 10:23 PM
I'm assuming he means brightness rather than discrimination between reds, yellows, etc.
hypertext translator gives me a sense that you might be right:
hard to say without a better translation.
Posted by: applescrapple
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July 8, 2010 10:35 PM
OH, I am SO disappointed. I thought that octopussys could predict the future.
Please tell me that they can - please!
The basic forces of nature don't have nearly as much romance.
Posted by: https://me.yahoo.com/wmdkitty#83021
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July 8, 2010 10:46 PM
Well, we do all have intuition, and I suppose a lot of intuitive "knowledge" and "instinctive" things could be (mis)construed as being "psychic" if a person is sufficiently "tuned in" to their intuition and instincts.
But it's perfectly natural, even if it is occasionally downright creepy. And it's not a "special psychic ability."
Posted by: milko.de.varona
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July 8, 2010 10:47 PM
Haha, when i heard about this octopus on the news i thought it was just a silly joke, are there really people who takes this seriously?
Posted by: skeptical scientist
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July 8, 2010 10:58 PM
In response to threats from some German fans, Spanish politicians are offering the octupus protection, in Spain if necessary:
Spanish PM Jose Zapatero offers Paul the psychic octopus state protection
Personally, I think it's all in good fun. I think sometimes skeptics get so wrapped up in the fact that a minority takes psychics seriously that they forget that to most people, psychics are just harmless entertainment which is not to be taken seriously anyways.
Posted by: skeptical scientist
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July 8, 2010 11:01 PM
PS in reply to the inevitable "your concern is noted" comments:
Yeah, okay, fair enough. :P
Posted by: Eamon Knight
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July 8, 2010 11:05 PM
[shameless_plug]Post is up:
http://humanistottawaweb.wordpress.com/2010/07/08/and-then-they-called-the-cops-on-us/
[/shameless_plug]
Posted by: magistermundisum
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July 8, 2010 11:10 PM
Maybe we need to show proper respect for Paul the octopus by getting him a Coat of Arms- all that water must be cold!
And all ye believers of him being the true son of FSM noodly appendages and all better start by tithing to the nearest aquarium.
Posted by: Fred The Hun
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July 8, 2010 11:24 PM
Ichthyic @ 123,
Do you think it possible that something in the textures or the dyes in the flags are resulting in polarization of light and maybe Paul has a preference for some kind of artifact due to polarization?
Posted by: James F
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July 8, 2010 11:32 PM
#123
"Claro" in reference to color here would mean "bright;" I would translate it as:
The Peruvian biologist explained that squids (and octopuses) are the most intelligent among invertebrates because of their large brains and they can distinguish colors, mainly the brightest ones.
"They are attracted by bright colors: well, the colors of the German flag are dark, whereas those of the Spanish are bright," he explained.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 8, 2010 11:38 PM
Do you think it possible that something in the textures or the dyes in the flags are resulting in polarization of light and maybe Paul has a preference for some kind of artifact due to polarization?
possible.
would be worth looking at, though difficult. I get the sense we are only now starting to unravel that aspect of their visual capabilities.
Posted by: Great Waves
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July 8, 2010 11:56 PM
Just don't question Punxsutawney Phil. You know what might happen.
Posted by: jay.sweet
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July 9, 2010 12:01 AM
Heh... "My ability fades when you doubt me! But if you believe completely, you will believe in me completely!"
Reminds me of my Mormon upbringing. There's some passage in the Book of Moroni about that... "If you really want the gospel to be true, and if you pray really hard asking if you can believe that it's true, then eventually you will believe it's true! SURPRISE!!!"
Posted by: Jack Bentley
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July 9, 2010 12:20 AM
Fred the Hun, you are on to it - here is the explanation...
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/07/09/world-cup-the-inside-scoop-on-paul-the-clairvoyant-calamari/
Posted by: johnlil#0a224
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July 9, 2010 12:20 AM
I knew you'd say this. I'm a Leo. All Leos knew you would say this.
On the other seven hands, we Leos don't believe in astrology. We're Leos.
If only you would open your mind.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 9, 2010 12:27 AM
oops, but they got it wrong!
see the paper by Hanlon.
cephalopods really are color blind! I've seen the studies myself.
so saying they are attracted to "red" is incorrect.
they may be attracted to shapes, or contrasts, but not color. The learning involved with recognizing the red vs white balls had nothing to do with them actually recognizing the COLOR red.
man, they didn't spend much time "researching" the story, since this has been common news for some time:
http://www.mbl.edu/mrc/hanlon/pdfs/hanlon_currentbiol_2007.pdf
Posted by: A. Nuran
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July 9, 2010 12:31 AM
One thing you can be sure of...
It's going to be a bad day for the mussel.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 9, 2010 12:36 AM
btw, I thought I recalled that PZ even posted a review of Hanlon a while back.
here 'tis:
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2007/06/cephalopod_camouflage_or_turni.php
Posted by: abrasax365
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July 9, 2010 12:39 AM
I'd like to be under the sea
In an octopus' garden in the shade
He'd let us in, knows where we've been
In his octopus' garden in the shade
I'd ask my friends to come and see
An octopus' garden with me
I'd like to be under the sea
In an octopus' garden in the shade.
Happy Birthday, Ringo Starr!
-fyreflye
Posted by: MattyB
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July 9, 2010 12:43 AM
I've looked at the evidence and sorry PZ I can't decide if the Octopus is fair dinkum or not. So I've done the only rational thing and asked my Magic 8 ball and it has told me that "YES" the octopus is psychic. So sorry you are wrong.
Posted by: wackojacko1138
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July 9, 2010 12:47 AM
Paul has made 12 predictions, all on games in which Germany was playing. Of those 12, he predicted that Germany would win 9. Of those 9, Germany won 8. Paul is German. All this tends to indicate that it's an octopus who, because of the Clever Hans Effect or something like it, chooses mussels out of a box with the German flag on it far more often than he chooses the non-German mussels. What are the chances that out of a random 8 matches out of twelve, all eight would fall into the nine predicted by Paul? Not too bad, I expect, though I haven't done the math. That said, if anyone knows how to do that kind of math here, I'd like to see it.
Posted by: skeptical scientist
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July 9, 2010 12:57 AM
Reply to #143:
Number of ways of distributing 8 wins among 12 games = 12!/(8!*4!) = 495
Number of ways in which the 8 wins are among the 9 selected games = 9
Odds that the 8 won games would all fall into the 9 predicted by Paul = 9/495 = 1/55
Posted by: Pareidolius
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July 9, 2010 1:01 AM
How soon they forget. This octopus, he is not your farcical god of paste. He is Tarvu and he is great. Hebbo.
Posted by: Alexander Safir
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July 9, 2010 1:03 AM
Marella said as much in post number 87, but it bears repeating: Why, oh why, do spoon benders, psychics, pastors and the ilk who follow them have such a universally poor command of grammar and spelling?!
Just off the top of my head, I identified these gems:
Pauls 100% success
- Either he meant to pluralize success ("successes") or he meant to indicate the genitive case of Paul ("Paul's")
cafully
- Perhaps this is some kind of obscure New Englandism? Perhaps he actually meant "full of ca"?
"jabulani"
- Should, of course, be capitalized. It's a brand name owned by Adidas.
"Its only the opressive rage..."
- Choose! Either "it" is possessing rage, thereby requiring that he drop the redundant definite article or he should use the contraction of "it" and "is" ("it's");
- And furthermore, he really needs to consider consulting a dictionary from time to time or trust the spell check function of his browser or mail client. I believe it's "oppressive", is it not? This kind of spelling error really is oppressive!
"...sceptics, that..."
- (sigh) No comma!
"...presents this from flowering"
- Again, choose! This may be either "present something to" or "prevent [an action] from".
"...tho"
- This deserves no comment, except that it seems very lazy to this reader.
"...: hes doesnt..."
- Yeah, this is just too much. One should slow down and think about what one is typing! What do one want to say today? Is one allergic to apostrophes? What does "hes doesnt" even mean?
- Furthermore, the first letter of the independent clause following a colon is always capitalized!
"Hes immune..."
- [Please see previous remark about allergies and contractions]
"Pauls done..."
- Again, choose! Does he mean "all of the Pauls"? Then he should really say "[All of the] Pauls did the world a real service."
"...its being..."
- [Please see previous remarks about allergies and contractions]
"randi the bandi"
- If you want to invent a nickname, he needs to capitalize the names. Randi the Bandi is a proper noun, after all.
And finally
What is with the gratuitous use of diaeresis? There...is no...substitute for...logical...and grammatical connections...between words and...and...and...sentences...
Oh, and I found what I think may be several logical and factual errors in one or two of his statements. But I could barely understand him, so, who knows what he was saying!
Posted by: jcmartz.myopenid.com
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July 9, 2010 1:03 AM
But it looks some (angry) fans want to cook Paul the Octopus into a nice dish.
Posted by: SteveL
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July 9, 2010 1:19 AM
Based on the numbers in #143:
If Paul picks Germany 75 percent of the time (9 / 12) and Germany actually wins 66 percent of the time (8/12), then the chances of Paul getting it correct are:
0.75 x 0.66 + 0.25 x 0.34 = approximately 60 percent.
That's assuming that Paul's pick and Germany's performance are independent events. Not necessarily true, since the players could be affected by news stories about Paul's choice.
Posted by: Ing: PhD Trollologist
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July 9, 2010 1:37 AM
Actually this may have stumbled upon something useful...wouldn't showing cephlapods having a preference for certain shades or shapes be a valuable data point for future research?
Posted by: skeptical scientist
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July 9, 2010 1:55 AM
To clarify SteveL's remark two posts ago, that 60% is the chance of the octopus guessing correctly the outcome of one game, not the chance of the octopus getting the recorded streak of correct guesses.
The chance of the octopus getting the recorded streak of correct guesses by chance, of course, is so astronomically small as to not even be worth considering, and supernatural abilities are really the only plausible explanation.
(Actually 4% using the 6 for 6 guessing record, or just over 1% using the 11 out of 12 guessing record.)
Posted by: puzzledponderer
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July 9, 2010 2:02 AM
It's not the octopus it's the players - they're superstitious and if Paul says they will loose, they're too worried for a proper game.
Posted by: jennyxyzzy
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July 9, 2010 2:04 AM
googlemess way back up at #23 has the right idea - the best way to predict the future is to make it. Of course, it's silly to talk about an octopus being a god - gods don't exist after all, except as literary figures.
No, what you don't realise is that Paul is actual the cephalopod equivalent of Dr Evil and this is all part of his plan to take over the world. They're making a stash of money by fixing the results of big sporting events, and this money is going to be used to pay for the invasion.
I, for one, welcome our cephalopod masters.
Posted by: Mrs Tilton
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July 9, 2010 2:18 AM
I for one was totally persuaded of Paul the Octopus's (seemingly) spooky psychic abilities. Thank Cthulhu I read this Pharyngula post so I could see the error of my ways.
Mind you, I'd still eat the little bastard.
Brownian @5,
the size of a man's Hans corresponds to...
... the size of his gloves?
Posted by: vimes
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July 9, 2010 2:38 AM
Of course cephalopods can't predict the future.
Paul knew how the matches would end because he comes from the future.
Just like this dude:
Posted by: Rich Wilson
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July 9, 2010 2:41 AM
Put another way, if there are 64 animals out there predicting outcomes, one of them will probably be right.(yes, I know, 64 is no guarantee, and you could get a reasonably high 95%ish expectation with less)
Posted by: madbull
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July 9, 2010 2:43 AM
Joga Bonito (The beautiful game) has indeed been scarred by a multitude of superstitions, not the least of which has been Joachim Loew's supposed lukcy cashmere sweater, which was sold out in Germany. At least that one ended with Germany's defeat to Spain.
Did you guy's hear about France's insane coach Raymond Domenech, he was selecting teams based on astrology, he apparently did not trust scorpios and felt comfortable with a Leo defence.
I really dont blame Anelka for yelling at him anymore
Posted by: Rutee, Shrieking Harpy of Dooooom
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July 9, 2010 3:11 AM
*Blows a vuvuzela right next to Brian*
Nonsensical jibber jabber... *Mutters*
Posted by: alexcharltonderrida
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July 9, 2010 4:44 AM
"So far Pauls 100% success at the World Cup proves your scepticism is unjustified, not to mention pettily vindictive, as you see your cafully crafted world being kicked about like a jabulani ball. He does have psychic powers...and so do many if not most people."
I'm surprised people of this mindset don't also believe that clouds are made to look like things by the government. Because cloud government conspiracy is about as simple, and powerful an explanation for clouds looking like things, as precognition is for an octopus getting six binary choice questions correct.
BTW, I have a 100% success rate at predicting the football scores before a match. The scores before a match are always nil nil. I've never been wrong. Coincidence?
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 9, 2010 4:49 AM
and supernatural abilities are really the only plausible explanation.
riiiigghhht.
O.o
Posted by: JB
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July 9, 2010 4:58 AM
The octopus only comments on Germany's games. If the beast _only_ chooses the German flag, then in a knockout competition it will predict all the games correctly until the last one, at which point a nation in mourning forgets all about it.
How many octopi did they test to find one with a preference for the German flag? Did they consider selling the ones with alternative preferences to the international media? Is there an opportunity here?
Obivously it sometimes chooses a different flag and the competition isn't just a knockout one, but you get the idea.
And the nonsense isn't all bad - the aquarium concerned is sure to benefit from increased visitors (and their entry fees, and their buying Paul the psychic octopus T-shirts) some of which might learn something interesting or useful.
Posted by: Whocareswhatmynameisanyway
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July 9, 2010 5:04 AM
"I guess I've been taught a lesson."
That some people are really stupid?
Also, how does the guy know Paul aren't influenced by human sceptics around? If the animal is 'smart enough' to see into the future, it should be smart enough to understand that some humans are sceptics. No, probably not a discussion I'd want to take much further, right.
If the people 'believing' in Paul actually believed that the animal can somehow tell the future, they would bet a lot of money on the outcomes of the games in question. I know I would.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 9, 2010 5:11 AM
they would bet a lot of money on the outcomes of the games in question. I know I would.
I'd wager some do.
I'd wager some of them think the octopus was the reason they won their bets, if they did.
Posted by: Whocareswhatmynameisanyway
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July 9, 2010 5:31 AM
@Ichthyic
You're probably right, but even medium-sized wagers is not what I'm talking about. If you truly believe Paul can foresee the future, betting on the game isn't betting at all, it's just taking free money from an money tree - there's no risk. If you own a house and hold on to this belief, not selling your house and use the proceeds to bet on the outcome of the football-games is stupid. Most of the 'believers' in Paul are either stupid or dishonest or some combination of the two.
But you are right: Some people will likely lose quite a bit of money because of their belief in Paul, and one must never underestimate the power of confirmation bias. The sad thing is that the closer Paul gets to being wrong (the more lucky shots he has before his guess turns out to be incorrect), the more certain the belivers will be in his abilities and the more money they will likely bet.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 9, 2010 5:35 AM
If you truly believe Paul can foresee the future,
even then, given the sheer numbers of betting fans, I'm willing to wager there was at least someone with this much conviction, who did indeed, and mightly stupidly, "bet the house" because they were convinced of the mighty mental mollusc.
The sad thing is that the closer Paul gets to being wrong (the more lucky shots he has before his guess turns out to be incorrect), the more certain the belivers will be in his abilities and the more money they will likely bet.
that IS an interesting phenomenon, ain't it?
what's more, there will be people who fail to learn from this, and will repeat the same nonsense when the next "clever Hans" comes along.
Posted by: SteveL
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July 9, 2010 5:37 AM
@#150: That can't be right. Suppose for example Paul always picked Germany. Then he'd have got 8 out of 12 right, which is still an improbable streak by your logic.
Posted by: rejistania
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July 9, 2010 5:51 AM
Well, I would love to see Paul predict more... Maybe the aquarium can try to get him to predict 2nd Bundesliga games. Rot-Weiß Oberhausen probably would like the support of a local octopus. That way, we'd have a higher base of data.
Apart from that: Sport brings out the superstitious side in me and from what I have heard in many others as well. They want to believe...
Posted by: Dania
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July 9, 2010 6:00 AM
If that's true, then it comes as no surprise that Paul picked Germany over Uruguay for the 3rd place.
They say he will pick the Netherlands-Spain final later today, but both flags have a similar pattern. I would say that to a color-blind animal the Dutch flag looks more like the German (although the bright and dark colors are all in the wrong place), but he has picked Spain before... hmm... any guesses?
Posted by: https://me.yahoo.com/hairychris444#96384
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July 9, 2010 6:17 AM
Octopus Schmoctopus... a mate of mine predicted the teams playing the final before the competition had started. The general reaction was "yeah, right" but there you go.
Admittedly the other calls he made were dramatically wrong!
Posted by: SteveL
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July 9, 2010 6:26 AM
Re #165: umm no.. sorry I'm wrong and @#150 is right.
The chances of Paul getting 11/12 or more right is only around 1.5 percent even assuming he follows a strategy of randomly deviating from Germany only 25 percent of the time.
(It's the probability of getting 11 heads in 12 tosses with a biased coin that gives heads 60 percent of the time).
Posted by: christophe-thill.myopenid.com
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July 9, 2010 6:28 AM
There's a question Mr Souter doesn't answer :
There are many people who don't care a bit about the World Cup (me, for instance). So, why would an octopus care ?
Posted by: SQB (fuck death)
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July 9, 2010 6:35 AM
And now Paul the Octopus is getting death threats. Seriously. What is the idea behind that?
Even if he had the ability to predict the outcome of football games, why on earth kill him when he made a correct prediction? Or do those idiots believe he has not just the ability to predict, but actually influence the game?
Posted by: Jadehawk, cascadeuse féministe
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July 9, 2010 6:41 AM
because even idiots know that "predicting the future" is absurd, on an intuitive level. "causing the future" is far more intuitive, even if in this case it obviously makes just as little sense.Posted by: Jadehawk, cascadeuse féministe
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July 9, 2010 6:51 AM
or, it could be just another instance of "shoot the messenger" :-p
Posted by: Dania
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July 9, 2010 7:05 AM
Scapeoctopus. :P
Posted by: JB
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July 9, 2010 7:14 AM
Based on the clear evidence of my work World Cup competition [predict the results, win a prize], some nationalities are much more psychic than others. For example, the Dutch and Spanish are simply much better at predicting results and sit at the top of the league-table. The English (i.e. me) and French seem to be much less so with very poor predictive abilities.
Is there any grant funding available to investigate this further?
Posted by: Dania
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July 9, 2010 7:27 AM
Oh. According to Paul, Spain will win the cup! And I refuse to believe in Paul!
Posted by: Moggie
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July 9, 2010 7:32 AM
#171:
Humour? For every nutter who thinks the octopus needs to die, there are others who are just going along with the joke. Not that I find death threats particularly funny, mind, but I suspect that the real crazies would be making broader threats against the aquarium, rather than just sending octopus recipes.
Posted by: Pyre
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July 9, 2010 7:41 AM
This was merely Episode One of a series of episodes intended to target our own PZ Myers with a conflict of loyalties between the cephalopods he loves and the scams he deplores.
1. Paul the Psychic Octopus giving game guesses.
2. Zachary the Catholic Cuttlefish cuddling cute kids.
3. Myers the Scientologist Squid suckering psych patients.
.....
Posted by: Ryan
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July 9, 2010 7:42 AM
Hmmm... PZ seems to be a bit grumpy over nothing really. I have yet to meet anyone who is taking this at all seriously. It's all a bit tongue in cheek and if it brings in some money to the aquarium (which I'm sure they need,) then I don't see the problem.
On a serious note, I reckon they should make a movie about Paul the precog. Something along the lines of "Minority Report." Maybe they could get Spielberg to shoot it. Think of the potential, you have the mafia in FIFA, Pauls bid from freedom as he attempts to climb out his tank... all the elements are there for a great movie. I vote for John Travolta to play Paul and maybe Madonna could play his love interest.
Posted by: Phodopus
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July 9, 2010 7:44 AM
Oh for Cthulu's Sake, take a pill everyone, it's a JOKE to everyone including the people doing it! There have been more idiotic PR ideas out there, sans the nice octopus. There are three lessons to be learned here
* Cephalopods are cool
* Cephalopods are cool
* People like soccer
End of story. PZ seems to have a much more frustrated attitude towards these things than the average skeptic (for me it was just a giggle and a cool octopus), though after reading the email he posted I can undestand the reason why that is...
Btw. I think that the 1/64 chance is way to pessimistic. With a strong bias towards Germany and a few additional hints from the audience in the case of spain and serbia, I think the statistically expected success rate is much much closer to 1.
Food?
Posted by: Rev. BigDumbChimp
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July 9, 2010 7:44 AM
We have our first entry for dumbest comment of the day.
Posted by: Matt "Nora" Penfold
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July 9, 2010 7:46 AM
I just tried an experiment with one of my cats.
I wrote Spain and Netherlands on a sheet of paper and showed it to the cat. She sniffed the paper for a bit and curled up and went back to sleep.
Thus my cat is predicting that at half-time both teams for will fail to re-appear for the second half having fallen asleep in the changing rooms.
Posted by: Phodopus
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July 9, 2010 7:48 AM
Haha, there's a reason Cat Oracles haven't been really popular in the past 3000 years *g*. The outcome always tends to be *want food* *meaw* *bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzZZ*
Posted by: Matt "Nora" Penfold
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July 9, 2010 7:53 AM
PZ did the maths. Six samples, each of a binary choice.
The chance of getting all choices correct by chance alone is 1 in 64. Not astronomical at all.
You also chose to ignore the distinct possibility that the handler is giving clues to Paul, even if unwittingly.
Posted by: Lotharloo
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July 9, 2010 7:58 AM
Actually, if the octupus is biased towards picking Germany randomly with probability 2/3 and the other flag with probability 1/3, then the probability of the octupus making the correct chain of predictions is 1 in 45 (compared to 1 in 64).
Posted by: puzzledponderer
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July 9, 2010 8:14 AM
[Movable Type hates me :(]
I am not sure Paul even looks at the flags, actually. I am still more convinced that suprtstitious soccer player play worse when knowing a cephalopod celebrity like Paul said they won't win. We're lucky Paul chose Germany over Uruguay for the "little final".
However, I find since Paul has so much influence, he should do more for Germany than just predict soccer games. Like predict the success of the German health care "reform" (as in: you pay more and that's all) that the government snuck in while everyone was distracted by the Soccer World Cup.
Posted by: Poggy
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July 9, 2010 8:15 AM
I love Paul. I think he is amazing and I cannot get enough of him. I am thinking of travelling to Oberhausen to visit him (it isn't far from here).
A coincidence? I think not. He may be psychic, or perhaps time travelling (Back to the Future anyone?) or maybe even a prophet of His Noodliness, but certainly, something fishy is going on.
Posted by: Philip Legge
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July 9, 2010 8:16 AM
“Lucky Hans” tells me that an intermediary of Sepp Blatter is actually using Paul as a proxy, to inform the match fixers in South Africa how they should tell the umpires to fix the results of each of the matches.
Thus, the only surprise is the match where Paul’s “prediction” didn’t actually come to pass. My guess is that we won’t be seeing those particular match referees acting again in any official FIFA capacity.
Salve lucrum! Lucrum gaudium!
Posted by: latsot
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July 9, 2010 8:20 AM
They should have Paul giving commentary on the matches in realtime. One of the other presenters would say some random innane thing, then they'd cut to Paul in his tank for a few seconds. I think we could rely on Paul to have a more worthwhile opinion.
Posted by: Matt "Nora" Penfold
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July 9, 2010 8:32 AM
He would certainly make more sense than Mick McCarthy. Hell, I would make more than Mick McCarthy.
Posted by: katinkerer
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July 9, 2010 8:54 AM
"So far Pauls 100% success at the World Cup proves your scepticism is unjustified"
You definitely got told. The errors Paul made didn't count, OK? He slipped and they recorded it incorrectly.
(That, or 85 = 100 now.)
Posted by: Dania
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July 9, 2010 9:07 AM
No, I think Paul actually got every game involving Germany at this World Cup (6 so far) right. The 85 number refers to every prediction he did so far including those made during Euro 2008 (but apparently that was probably not even the same "Paul").
But of course this doesn't prove anyone's skepticism unjustified.
Posted by: Poggy
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July 9, 2010 9:37 AM
Paul has picked the box on the right every time (I could find pictures for) except for England vs. Germany. Perhaps Paul favours the right side somehow.
Posted by: Dianne
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July 9, 2010 9:44 AM
Of course the octopus isn't psychic. Nonetheless, it probably is having an effect on the events: the players know whether the octopus picked them or not and that affects their playing. Which is why I wonder why the octopus's handlers didn't fix the results: put yummier food in the German box so that the octopus will pick it and make the players happy. (For that matter, why not do the same even if you believe that the octopus is psychic and/or chosing which team will win by its food preference.) It seems an odd combination of superstition and over fairness to not spike the odds.
Anyway, I'm bummed that the German team lost. I'd have liked to see them win if only because they're a highly integrated team with lots of Auslander-origined players. It'd have been a kick in the neo-Nazi's teeth similar to Jesse Owens if this Turk and other "foreigner" heavy team had won the World Cup where previous teams with more Ureinwohners had lost. Actually worse than Jesse Owens since it would be Germans celebrating the victory of their multi-cultural team. Oh, well, it wasn't to be this year. Maybe in the 2012 Eurocup.
As for the final, both Spain and the Netherlands have a history of chocking in the final so it'll be an interesting game but probably an absolutely horrible one. I'm hoping for the Netherlands personally: come on, dudes, you FLOODED your country in the past to get at the Spanish. Surely you can manage to kick a little ball around to win against this set.
Posted by: woesinger
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July 9, 2010 9:48 AM
So - if the octopus is presented with the German flag in associated with food time after time, don't you think he'd learn to associate three parallel stripes and yummy snack? It's worth pointing out, that in all of the picks he's supposedly done - he's always gone for a flag with three parallel stripes (though a lot of flags follow that format).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus
(Yes - he has a wikipedia page)
So add a bit of visual pattern recognition and learned behaviour that skews the picks towards a team that wins most of its games to the already less than astronomical random-chance odds and this looks anything but fishy (ba-dum!).
Posted by: palefury
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July 9, 2010 10:27 AM
Yeh, I think there is a pattern to the flag that Paul picks. He preferentially picks the Germany flag, probably was trained to do so. In Euro 2008 he only picked the Germany flag. he was wrong twice (when Germany didn't win) and right 4 times (when Germany won). For the world cup he has preferentially picked Germany again. The two flags that he picked that were not the German one, also have 3 horizontal stripes and he has never picked a flag other than one with horizontal stripes.
I think they may have trained him to go for the Germany flag, which he does very often, and the 2 times Paul made a mistake and picked a flag that looked kinda like the Germany one to him (especially if he is indeed colorblind - I thought some species of octopus could see color - I don't know if Paul's species is one of these)
No psychic here. But at least lots of people get to see this lovely creature on TV.
Posted by: eviltwit
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July 9, 2010 10:34 AM
Ah - duh, he's not really psychic. Hopefully, most of us know that. Personally, I love octopuses and I think Paul's cute. And, it's been good to have something to focus on while watching soccer besides the vuvuzelas!
Posted by: eviltwit
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July 9, 2010 10:36 AM
PZ, maybe your "I'm tired of Paul" post backfired. You have almost 200 comments under this post. Lol!
Posted by: https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawmVT1LBhwmO9ej9LNg7a5e9d-AVJ8ezfmE
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July 9, 2010 10:42 AM
Wouldn't psychic powers (precog, tk, remote viewing, mind-reading, mind-control, whatever) be such a good adaptation that anything developing them would suddenly become much more successful? Those would be adaptations on the order of usefulness of sight and hearing, right? I guess psychic powers would have to be god-granted and not inheritable, or you'd have the "psychics take over in 6 generations"* problem.
(* number I pulled out of my butt. There are probably people on this list who could compute a correct on, given some initial assumptions, I bet)
Posted by: toth
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July 9, 2010 10:51 AM
Oh lighten up, it's a silly publicity stunt. It's not like Peter Popof or Uri Gellar.
Posted by: Perspexo
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July 9, 2010 10:57 AM
Googlemess@199
They would be amazingly useful adaptations just like the ability to fire heat rays, turn to living steel, posess an adamantium skeleton and mutant healing factor.
Maybe you can ask God why he hasn't given out these powers before?
I eagerly await an answer.
Posted by: James
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July 9, 2010 11:19 AM
Bah, of course the octopus isn't psychic. It's their unique interaction with tachyon particles that allows octopuses to see into the future.
*snigger*
Posted by: Gregory Greenwood
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July 9, 2010 11:48 AM
These adaptations would be extremely useful... if they were physically possible. All evidence currently available indicates that they are not, however. Technology may one day mimic some of these effects, but no known biological process enables telepathy, telekinesis or the like.
If the magic sky fairy existed and possessed the powers attributed to it in the Bibble, then doubtless it could imbue its followers with super-powers enough to conquer the planet overnight.
The fact that no fundies ever recorded actually have absolute power over matter and energy makes this scenario a little unlikely. Either they are doing their megalomaniac prayers wrong or, whisper it, maybe god doesn't exist at all...
Posted by: Gregory Greenwood
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July 9, 2010 11:55 AM
Of course, the armies of the faithful could by stymied by their one achilles heel... iron chariots.
Posted by: Gregory Greenwood
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July 9, 2010 12:01 PM
/Sarcasm
I will let you into a secret, Brian. You are right. Psychics are being secretly hunted down by skeptic witchhunters and murdered, but the conspiracy goes further. Other psychics are sent to kill them.
I am the head of Emperor PZ's psychic corp of assassins, and I am coming for you. You may try to fight, but your paltry powers are no match for the might of the Dark Side... (que supervillain laughter)
Sarcasm/
Posted by: spulido99
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July 9, 2010 12:03 PM
"When a see the whole world attention focused in an Octopus, I feel being part of The Simpsons"
Posted by: Dianne
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July 9, 2010 12:11 PM
Psychics are being secretly hunted down by skeptic witchhunters and murdered
Wouldn't a real psychic know that you were coming and how to avoid being killed?
Posted by: Gregory Greenwood
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July 9, 2010 12:56 PM
(Damnit! Reality intruding on the delusion again via the insidious means of continuity!)
Um..errr...yes...well...you see...um...
(I have it!) You see, Dianne, I am such a powerful psychic and precognitive that I can shield my thoughts and confuse the minds of lesser precognitives into seeeing a false future, thus allowing me to track down the low medi-chlorian count fools and enact Emperor PZ's dark will.
Once this Brian is no more than charred ashes, I will be sent on my most important mission yet; freeing the octopus Paul from his cruel captors!
;-)
Posted by: Not Guilty
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July 9, 2010 2:04 PM
I am not sure what is more ridiculous, this letter defending Paul or the death threats against Paul. FFS people! This was funny the first time; now I want to gouge my eyes out when I read anything about this nonsense (except criticisms of course). I hope the bugger is wrong for Saturday and Sunday just for fun.
Posted by: thrawn369
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July 9, 2010 2:05 PM
Crikey has an interesting article about Paul, saying that maybe he prefers red, white and blue horizontal stripes over red and yellow stripes, since he choses flags with those colours over Germany's flag.
Posted by: Dania
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July 9, 2010 2:21 PM
Paul is colorblind.
Posted by: Demonax
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July 9, 2010 2:57 PM
What Mr Souter and his fellow psychics need is a good dose of physic.
Posted by: Sven DiMilo
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July 9, 2010 3:08 PM
hmmm, generalizing from the "sportsmen's plural"?
nah. Nobody says "I caught 8 snake this morning."
It only works for game species.
Posted by: Pyre
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July 9, 2010 3:52 PM
In reply to thrawn369 @210:
More likely (color not being the issue), he preferred the *pattern* of the UK flag, all those lines radiating out from the center like the abstraction of... an octopus's tentacles....
Hmmmm....
Posted by: phantomreader42
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July 9, 2010 4:10 PM
tis Himself @ #99:
You're right. "Paul" is more a name for a walrus. :P
Posted by: Don Quijote
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July 9, 2010 4:43 PM
I'm new to this but I have been reading comments on this site for a long time. Some (most) of the contributions are very good, thoughtful and some, very funny. Others are just plain stupid (you know who you are). However, some misunderstand what Mr Myers is saying. When he said that nothing can see the future, he was´nt talking about what scientist can predict by using the well know laws of nature, he was talking about situations where there is a 50% chance of any outcome. Just to be pedantic Yubal asked if anyone wanted calamares. Calamar in Spanish means squid. Octopus is pulpo. Que aproveche!
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 9, 2010 7:10 PM
hmmm, generalizing from the "sportsmen's plural"?
context, sven.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 9, 2010 7:14 PM
In Euro 2008 he only picked the Germany flag.
that can't have been the same octo.
O. vulgaris (which it looks like this is that species), lives a maximum of 15months.
I'd say those suggesting the aquarists are training octos to recognize the german flag pattern are spot on.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 9, 2010 7:21 PM
the players know whether the octopus picked them or not and that affects their playing.
that's kinda pathetic, really.
Posted by: foresight
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July 9, 2010 10:00 PM
Its intersting to see how many people when confronted with evidence of precognition immediately attack the messenger or wall themselves up with denials...
if Paul is not the prognosticator, then it must be his handlers...the alternative is the aquarium people are in on match fixing.
BUT how could that spanish header have been fixed? and why only let in one goal?
Sorry but Paulo has shown to the world that the future is foreseeable...and the tidy little manmade academic world that says its not has been kicked out of the park
Posted by: foresight
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July 9, 2010 10:06 PM
Dont confuse Pauls oracular power with LUCK..you can wear as many lucky shirts and have them as unwashed as you please...in your desire to influence an event...it ont happen.
Paul is not influencing events(as the aggrieved germans or argentinians would believe)...hes just telling it like it is.
BUT hdes done us a opublic service by showing us that the game that ias supposed to bring people togther (right Blatter?), actually tears them apart! Ego and greed are the driving motors of competition.
Posted by: foresight
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July 9, 2010 10:26 PM
Paul may be colour blind, but most sceptics are purblind. Its interesting to see them raise the most obtuse explanations to explain away Pauls gift.
Palefury looks for patterns that are not there...like any common madman.
SteveL:'That's assuming that Paul's pick and Germany's performance are independent events. Not necessarily true, since the players could be affected by news stories about Paul's choice.'
More guessing...ironic as thats all you can do, while Paul the Octopus KNOWS...maybe youre envious?
Dianne: 'It seems an odd combination of superstition and over fairness to not spike the odds.'
sorry Dianne, but the evidence suggests Paul (or one of his handlers) is psychic.
The Superstition word is really over used...as it means 'that which has no basis'...like many a scientific theory, but unlike Pauls ability now proven to be 6 out of 6.
The death threats the octopus is receiving is due to the greed and ego that is part of competitve mentality...think football hooliganism.
'The only thing everyone agrees on is: cephalopods are awesome and not psychic.'
almost everyone on this board, but not everyone worldwide...
the attacks on brian are amusing and revealing of an endangered view that fears its extinction.
Paul is not German,..hes an octopus born in UK...His handlers noticed he had a flair for picking winners back in 2008...now his gift is so far 100% this touranment, that hes upsetting the rationalist applecart.
Posted by: PZ Myers
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July 9, 2010 10:33 PM
Brian! Nice of you to stop by!
Bad move, though. We have a 3 post rule to stop people from piling on with the first comment from someone...and there you go and post 3 comments in a row.
Posted by: foresight
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July 9, 2010 10:36 PM
don quixote:'When he said that nothing can see the future, he was´nt talking about what scientist can predict by using the well know laws of nature, he was talking about situations where there is a 50% chance of any outcome.'
really? how does he know? This sort of dogmatic certainty has no place in any science....Clearly Paul has mde a monkey of the dogmatists.
ericjamieson:'Wait, so people are actually taking this seriously? Every news account I've read seems like even his keepers are just treating it as an amusing stunt or coincidence that doesn't have any serious basis'
What you mean is Paul has demonstrated the spread of the virus of rational materialism...those brought up in this culture to believe you cant see the future, have had to confront an event that says you can...ridicule is one common response to this sort of thing...anger is another...because it seriously undermines the unexamined thesis that Preconition is impossible.
Posted by: foresight
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July 9, 2010 10:39 PM
right PZ..another of your rules is Precognition is impossible..however..
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 9, 2010 10:45 PM
If the octopus is so good, he shouldn't have any trouble passing James Randi Challenge. A true double blind study without a handler??? Any bets?
Posted by: foresight
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July 9, 2010 10:55 PM
sorry Nerd...but are u suggesting the handler is the one making the predictions?
Will Randi the sleazy professional fraud do it? is he trustworthy? Its strange that sceptical scientists choose to partner with a professional conartist.
A double blind study for a octopus!LOL
Sorry but his success rate speaks for itself
Posted by: Rutee, Shrieking Harpy of Dooooom
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July 10, 2010 1:14 AM
I see we have a Dunning who can't be fucked to read about, oh I don't know, every previous tested claimant.
8 successes out of 9 in one set of trials with only two outcomes is well, well within the realm of chance. Now if he'd predicted the spreads accurately those 8 times, along with some sort of side detail (Injury, or a miracle shot in thel ast 30 seconds, etc.), and did so with crystal clarity, as opposed to fill-in-the-blank barnum-isms, I'd be inclined to agree there may be something to it. I'd even be clamoring for him to go take the Randi test, just to see the result.
But predictions no more complex than coin flips? Says nothing to its' supposed precognition. All it says is that there are gullible morons who are so desperate for real life to be more like Science Fiction that they can't put their critical thinking caps on.
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 3:00 AM
Randi test? the fellows a professional fraud!
as for th reat of your post, shrieking harpy, your name says it all...the worst sort of muddled science...which insists it alone is the arbitor of reality.
Posted by: Pyre
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July 10, 2010 3:11 AM
Right, for safety of his prize money Randi would have to exclude the possibility of collusion by all the participating World Cup teams, who -- as you should have suspected -- might have actively conspired to make Paul's predictions come true....
Posted by: Rutee, Shrieking Harpy of Dooooom
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July 10, 2010 3:14 AM
If you don't trust Randi, then I'd like to see your methodology as to a proper, controlled test.
As to the rest, a mere ad hominem, in place of an explanation. Be specific. You're positing an exceptional claim, which requires extraordinary evidence. I'm positing a parsimonious explanation that is well within the bounds of the currently existing evidence.
Posted by: Rutee, Shrieking Harpy of Dooooom
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July 10, 2010 3:22 AM
Also, I'd like to see why you refer to Randi as a fraud, specifically. What drove you to that conclusion?
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 3:23 AM
controlled test? Isnt that the problem? Control?
The phenomena is by its nature UNcontrollable...we are seeing the best test now: live..Not controlled by anyone..let alone a fraud like randi who has made a career as a debunker...NOT as a scientist.
Randi and you are offended by phenomena that lie outside the accepted academic categories...
Explanations? I call it high brow bull....and so does Paul the Octopus...who knows you have sero interest in the phenomena
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 10, 2010 3:30 AM
the fellows a professional fraud!
wait... is this Dennis Markuze?
Posted by: Rorschach
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July 10, 2010 3:36 AM
Got the important one wrong, the Euro final 2008, Spain won.
His success rate speaks for statistics and BlackJack basic theory.If you think it speaks for anything else, you are a deluded fool.
Actually, make that, you are a deluded fool.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 10, 2010 3:37 AM
Isnt that the problem? Control?
Nurse!
the patient is off his meds again.
Posted by: Rutee, Shrieking Harpy of Dooooom
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July 10, 2010 3:44 AM
Do you know what the control condition is? If we accept your presumption that Paul is indeed predicting, you'd have to accept that he's doing it on what you're referring to in a 'controlled' way, because he's making these 'predictions' on demand. What you're thinking of by 'control' is not what I'm referring to by control, however.I'm referring to a control condition that's set up to establish a base line, a bench mark from which we can see the improvement or lack thereof of Paul (Or any other claimant to ESP). Can he even beat chance? And no, his current string is not beating chance. Every so often, someone actually wins at Vegas. All that means is that someone has to get lucky; The odds are still stacked way against you.
I'm hoping that's not the grounds you're making for your claim that he's a fraud. He doesn't claim to be a scientist; He claims to be a skeptic. Wow, if Paul's as good at ESP as you are, yout wo might be on to... well, nothing.
Actually, I think it'd be really flipping sweet for there to be aliens, time travellers, and espers. I'm so not offended at the possibility that I actively run RPGs with them. But I don't see convincing evidence of such yet in the real world.
Heck, it might even make me switch majors again if such a thing were found. I'd love to get in on the research.
What do you know; 'Paul's' first 'complex' prediction is way off kilter. What a gosh darn surprise, but I'm sure you'll have a convenient backup explanation.As to the explanation, I'll put it to you more simply. "Correctly guessing 8 coin flips once does not make you psychic. It means you got lucky once."
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 4:16 AM
Randi is a professional stage magician...that is a man used to deceiving the public with sleight of hand...aka a professional fraud.
He is no scientist...but he is embarrassed by real magic...it shows up his bogus kind.
Pauls predictions so far far better than any human...ands its they who are bound by the rules of chance..as they are the ones guessing...
Precopgnition is not guessing, so is not bound by statistical 'laws'.
Paul is not a 'claimant' to anything...youre the one who is masking claims: trying to set him up as one in order to find a way to destroy his credibility...using 'science' this way is ..well typical of the randian approach...
and he has beaten chance...chance is what the pundits do...Show me anyone who has a string of successful WC predictions like him...
better still..go to the gamblers and find there any of these guessers and use THEM as your 'baseline'!'
Posted by: John Morales
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July 10, 2010 4:29 AM
foresight, you're a troll specimen.
(Just so you know we know.)
Unless you're in a time-warp, the verb should be "was".
1. No, but far, far, far more like one than any woomeister.
2. No, his longstanding $1M prize embarrasses the purveyors of woo.
3. No, the bogus kind — like Sylvia Browne. Read all about it on his site.
Posted by: John Morales
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July 10, 2010 4:49 AM
PS I can't help myself; in honour of the great man I quote from his Wikipedia entry:
Not just your average stage magician.
Posted by: rejistania
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July 10, 2010 5:27 AM
For those of you who want a Randi-test. How?
I mean... I am not sure he lives to the next matches of the German Nati and I have no idea whether he has an ability for Bundesliga, Premier League, or related things.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 10, 2010 5:30 AM
embarrassed by real magic
OK, admit it.
You're just trying to pull some chains.
I call poe.
Posted by: Dania
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July 10, 2010 5:38 AM
U-20 Women's World Cup is coming up and it's going to be hosted in Germany...
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 5:41 AM
Randi a great man? Hmmm.go on admit it,...he paid you to say that!
..and no hes not just your average stage magician...he's setting himself up as an arbitor of reality...
he doesnt lack ambition...what he lacks is integrity.
Fortunately, millions of people are intrigued by Paul the Octopus, who has bundles of intrigrity.
Posted by: Rorschach
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July 10, 2010 5:48 AM
I think that is a term used for the Swiss national team.
troll or droll, can't make up my mind.
Posted by: Dania
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July 10, 2010 5:49 AM
Oh, and you could also test if he was trained to pick Germany's flag without any games going on. I suspect it's either that or Clever Hans effect (or both). For example, the handlers could lower the boxes in such a way that the box with the German flag would stand closer to Paul. I saw him picking the final: he went right to the closest one which is understandable.
But anyway, it's a joke and a profitable one for the zoo. I doubt they would want to test Paul, maybe they know what's going on. I don't have a hard time seeing how an octopus trained to pick Germany's flag would get almost every Germany game right...
Posted by: blf
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July 10, 2010 6:03 AM
It eats cuttlefish?
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 6:12 AM
Dania : you begin with: 'Oh, and you could also test if he was trained to pick Germany's flag without any games going on'
BUT end up with:
'I don't have a hard time seeing how an octopus trained to pick Germany's flag would get almost every Germany game right...'
what evidence do u have it wasw 'trained'? (Why are sceptics so cavalier with the facts?) You first wonder if he had been, then decided he had!
..amazing given he just decided to pick spain and Serbia...the teams that won their matches...
The guess/chance/luck thesis has become so tired..its falling over like a dead parrot!
'I saw him picking the final: he went right to the closest one which is understandable.'
why not if its the one that will win...DUH!
Posted by: Dania
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July 10, 2010 6:32 AM
I don't. But it's a far more parsimonious hypothesis than postulating supernatural powers for which there is no evidence or proposed mechanism.
No, idiot. Read that again. I didn't say he had, I said that an octopus trained to pick Germany's flag would necessarily be successful most of the times because Germany win most of their games. What part of this do you disagree with?
Posted by: Rorschach
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July 10, 2010 6:37 AM
As if it was able to agree or diagree with anything ! It just makes shit up.
Posted by: Kel, The Privileged View From Nowhere
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July 10, 2010 6:49 AM
Just posted this on a forum:
Actually, there are several. he doesn't get them right every time. In Euro 2008, it got 30% wrong including the final.These aren't statistically improbable runs, they fall well within the bell curve of expectation.It's a one in two chance each time. It's only because it has gotten a few in a row that people take note.There's always the clever hans effect.Now are you saying there's no other explanation than there's some different element beyond what we know about the laws of nature which is demonstrated by an octopus opening boxes with mussels inside them? Octopodes are awesome creatures in many ways, quite astounding behaviours and traits seldom seen in the animal kingdom. But predicting football matches by means of opening boxes with flags printed on them is not one of them...
Is the human species so fucking stupid that it prefers to believe in magic at the slightest hint of an abnormal pattern?
Posted by: makyui
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July 10, 2010 6:51 AM
Actually, what she said was that she doesn't have a hard time seeing how an octopus trained to pick Germany would get a Germany win right. She didn't say that Paul was definitely trained.
Perhaps you shouldn't mistake what people say for what you want people to say.
Even though an octopus like Paul has a lifespan of less than two years?
Is he our demigod octopus prophet, or does he have time travel capabilities as well?
Would you mind telling us why an octopus would give a crap about a soccer game, or how he knows what the flags mean, or why he would connect them to a soccer game that he wouldn't have any interest in, what with having no feet and eight arms and living in an aquarium where there is no soccer?
Would you explain how he told the handlers that when he picks a certain mussel, it means that there's a soccer win in this particular series? Maybe he's picking the loser, which means he's gotten only two right. Maybe he's picking something else entirely, that has absolutely nothing to do with soccer. Maybe he's just picking up cues for positive reinforcement without understanding what's going on.
I mean, since you're so sure that this is what's happening, and all. Are you sure you're not just jumping to conclusions?
Posted by: Dania
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July 10, 2010 7:35 AM
I would really like to see Paul being asked to predict the results of some games of the U-20 Women's WC*. Not only because that would give us more data, but hey, they used soccer to promote their zoo, now they could use Paul to promote a women's soccer event!
*But not only Germany's games, or we will end up with the same problem. As far as I know Germany women's team is pretty successful too, so I predict he would still pick Germany's flag most of the times and... get it right. Idiots like foresight would love that.
Posted by: Ing: PhD Trollologist
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July 10, 2010 7:36 AM
For testing Paul, we could have to predict things that are NOT the world cup and are truely random. Ie set up a computer program to generate either Red or Blue color on a screen in another room and have Paul predict which color. An octopus who can see the future ONLY for sports is pretty fucking useless and probably not genuine.
The premise on its surface is absurd. Why would an 18month life span aquatic invertabrate give a CRAP about a soccer game? How the hell would it even understand the game enough to tell 'who wins'? Seriously psionics, think this through!
Posted by: Dania
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July 10, 2010 8:13 AM
But you see, Ing, Paul loves soccer! Why do you think he used his superpowers to extend his lifespan? Because he wanted to watch this World Cup, of course!
And why would he care what color a screen is anyway? I bet he would get it wrong about 50% of the time just show you how little he cares! 'Cause he has "bundles of intrigrity" unlike you skeptics.
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 8:36 AM
Daniaspeak:' what evidence do u have it wasw 'trained'?
I don't. But it's a far more parsimonious hypothesis than postulating supernatural powers for which there is no evidence or proposed mechanism.'
====================
You dont..we can stop there...because the rest is very UNscientific speculation...even Paul doesnt stopp to guesswork...he has too much honor and integrity.
'No, idiot. Read that again. I didn't say he had, I said that an octopus trained to pick Germany's flag would necessarily be successful most of the times because Germany win most of their games.'
more guesswork... and a little simian splentic outburst thrown in. What a contrast to Pauls professional calm.
Its interesting to see the guesswork piled on by our ungifted simians as well as their belaboured outbursts...It confirms that they are worried by Pauls violation of their 'scientific' laws...
which is what this is all about,.right lads
===========================
as for Kel:
'he doesn't get them right every time. In Euro 2008, it got 30% wrong including the final.'
he has this tournament..BUT you seem to expect 100% every time...and when you get it this tournament, it still drives those simian glands wild...Your faux concern for appearances fools noone.
'# These aren't statistically improbable runs, they fall well within the bell curve of expectation.
# It's a one in two chance each time. It's only because it has gotten a few in a row that people take note.'
like 6 in a row? Hmm? or maybe you want a 100 in a row?
as for your bell curve bull..please stop trying to pose as a scientist...youre only undeminding their diminishing credibility
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 8:42 AM
daniaspeak:'But not only Germany's games, or we will end up with the same problem. As far as I know Germany women's team is pretty successful too, so I predict he would still pick Germany's flag most of the times and... get it right. Idiots like foresight would love that.'
-----------------
admit it..your upset at a real case of precognition...being seen witnessed by hundreds of millions of people...while your feeble efforts to tumble Paul are witnessed by only a handful of acolytes...still at least your saved from public embarrassment.
And no you cant predict,..you can guess like any other ordinary simian...but that wont get you even one right let alone 6 in a row.
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 10, 2010 8:44 AM
Yawn, no solid testing criteria by foresight. What a loser if he won't show how proper testing controlling for all variables is to be done. Without that testing and confirmation by a truly controlled experiments he is nothing but a bullshitter. Prove otherwise with solid scientific evidence...
Posted by: Dania
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July 10, 2010 9:34 AM
It looks more and more like a Poe, but whatever.
Yeah, right. Because precognition is so scientific.
Look, I know I'm speculating. I never said I wasn't. I said it was an hypothesis, right? It could be tested in a controlled environment, but it probably won't because no one but idiots are taking this as anything but a joke.
What guesswork? Do you think it's not possible to train an octopus to recognize the German flag's pattern? Or that Germany aren't a successful team who win most of their games? Could you read for comprehension for once in your life and answer?
No, I'm not. And most people are not taking it seriously. You're the crackpot.
Oh, I see. Trying to redefine words. No, sorry, people can and do make predictions based on a given hypothesis or theory. And then test those predictions. It's what science is all about. But you've already shown you have no grasp of the scientific method.
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 4:24 PM
Germany beats Uruguay,,..and PAUL IS RIGHT AGAIN!
sorry fellas....but your dogmatic world has been bounced out by Paul the all-seeing Octopus
Posted by: Dania
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July 10, 2010 4:42 PM
And you know what? I'm happy. I wanted Germany to win. I was cheering for them. So, uh, I'm not exactly upset, as you seem to think. I'm laughing at your gullibility, actually.
I hope Paul turns out to be wrong about tomorrow's game, though. Nothing against Paul, I quite like the guy, but come on... the Netherlands deserve it.
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 4:43 PM
'No, I'm not. And most people are not taking it seriously. You're the crackpot.'
http://www.facebook.com/PsychicOctopusPaul?v=wall
Youre upset so now youre calling names...but > 100000 on this face book disagree with your wonky assessment. Paul is the real thing....what a shame that your man made world view has no substance to it...
'No, sorry, people can and do make predictions based on a given hypothesis or theory. And then test those predictions. It's what science is all about. But you've already shown you have no grasp of the scientific method.'
spoken likea true believer....where science becomes the religious dogma...speculation replaces real knowledge...
And scientific hypotheses have a lousy history...when it comes to predictive power...BUT science is very good at creating disasters...witness Chernobyl and the Gulf Oil Apocalypse
'Yeah, right. Because precognition is so scientific'
If you mean the dogmatic university 'science'...who cares...science is derived from the word meaning TO KNOW..and clearly PAUL the Octopus KNOWS...something his critics cant claim...
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 4:57 PM
http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,705573,00.html
'According to Bild, mathematicians have been duly impressed by the octopus' ability to predict the future. Pieter Moree of the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in Bonn said: "During the six games, the probability (of being correct) was 1 in 64. That means that in a poll of 64 people, 63 would have given the wrong result."
Paul's prowess for good predictions has drawn praise from Britain, the country of his birth. Noting the poor footballing skills of the English team this year, the Telegraph has described Paul as the "biggest English success" of the World Cup. '
Posted by: foresight
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July 10, 2010 5:01 PM
daniaspeak:'So, uh, I'm not exactly upset, as you seem to think. I'm laughing at your gullibility, actually.'
Im laughing at yours..your adherence to an outmoded line of thought...has been shown up by paulo soothsaying abilities..It seems evidence cant dent your dogmatic beliefs...how sad and how like the sceptics...
Posted by: Dania
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July 10, 2010 5:05 PM
Yeah, you caught me. I'm a bit upset. The truth is I wanted Germany to play the final, not just to get the 3rd place. I'm also upset that they replaced the goalkeeper, but that's for other reasons...
If I had a Facebook account I would probably join it too. Seriously, Paul is awesome as all octopus are. BUT IT'S A JOKE! Or do you also believe that it's Paul typing those comments?
Oh, and you don't understand the scientific method, you don't know what the word prediction means in science, and you don't know what science is. And you're still an idiot.
Posted by: Rutee, Shrieking Harpy of Dooooom
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July 10, 2010 5:14 PM
Only one quote is appropriate for when Dunnings Gotta Kruger:
You are a sad, strange little man. You have my pity. Farewell.
Posted by: Rutee, Shrieking Harpy of Dooooom
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July 10, 2010 5:16 PM
You really have no idea what a double blind trial is, and why we tend to consider them so necessary, do you?
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 10, 2010 5:19 PM
Yawn, still no details from foresight of a totally blind test where all outside and presentation stimuli are controlled. Until then, Paul is like the horse that watched his master...
Posted by: Walton, Marquis of Carabas
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July 10, 2010 5:32 PM
I rather suspect you could find more than 100,000 people in the world who also believe that Obama is a Communist, that homeopathy works, that the earth was created in six days in 4004 BC, that masturbation will make you go blind, and (most worryingly) that Marmite is an edible foodstuff. Of course, by the inexorable logic of your position, all these things must be true. Go figure.
As opposed to your world view, which was, of course, vouchsafed to you by magical fairies. Because only sceptics have "man-made" ideas: the true believers derive their thoughts from a higher plane, hence why they don't need to bother with all this tiresome "reason" and "evidence" business.
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 10, 2010 5:57 PM
but your dogmatic world has been bounced out by Paul the all-seeing Octopus
Say, can you ask Paul the Octopus why you're such an ass?
surely it will know!
I still call Poe.
Posted by: Katharine
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July 10, 2010 5:59 PM
To be fair, I think Paul the Octopus is awesome.
But because Paul the Octopus is an octopus.
All octopuses are awesome. I should tell you about the one at the aquarium I work at - her name's Beyonce. Blame our director for that one. But she is an awesome octopus.
Posted by: Katharine
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July 10, 2010 6:01 PM
Anyone want to take bets on the next trope foresight is going to use?
I'm just going to sit back and laugh as foresight bullshits him/herself into a tizzy and pulls out every fallacy in the book.
Posted by: Dania
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July 10, 2010 6:25 PM
Me,
Hehe. Everyone discusses if it is octopi, octopuses or octopodes. I, on the other hand, just don't bother with plurals anymore!
Posted by: Katharine
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July 10, 2010 7:22 PM
Also, it is partially due to PZ's postings on cephalopods that I have recently decided that I want to devote a large part of my research for the rest of my life to studying cephalopod brains.
Posted by: Cath the Canberra Cook
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July 10, 2010 10:09 PM
Rev @ #181: your sarcasm detector is on the fritz again.
Posted by: makyui
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July 11, 2010 12:02 AM
Aww, foresight ignored my comment. Maybe my questions were too uncomfortable.
Or maybe he just didn't see them. I'll repeat them for him:
Posted by: foresight
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July 11, 2010 1:19 AM
dania:'BUT IT'S A JOKE! Or do you also believe that it's Paul typing those comments?'
NOPE its no joke...the forecasts are broadcast well before the tournament...
katy:'I'm just going to sit back and laugh as foresight bullshits him/herself into a tizzy and pulls out every fallacy in the book.'
fine...paul and i find the sceptics equally amusing and revealing...as they fight a rearguard action to defend their 'precogniton is not possible' dogmatic thesis.
'You really have no idea what a double blind trial is, and why we tend to consider them so necessary, do you?'
i do...i also recognise science uses its control position to determine what we all think..and no its not necessary,..cause its a controlled situation not a real situation...a real situation is one without controls or controllers....thats what makes it credible.
Walton has the Willies:
'I rather suspect you could find more than 100,000 people in the world who also believe that Obama is a Communist, that homeopathy works, that the earth was created in six days in 4004 BC.
only if american right wingers...yes it does work...and im not a member of the abrahamanic tribe.
I suspect youre upset by Pauls success rate...how dare he predict events...its its ...not supposed to happen!..all the dogamtic text books and triple blind experiments by triple blind experimenters say so!
Posted by: First Approximation, L'esprit de l'escalier
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July 11, 2010 1:22 AM
Argumentum ad Facebook?
Posted by: foresight
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July 11, 2010 2:08 AM
'Argumentum ad Facebook?'
better than argument by open fraud...
Posted by: foresight
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July 11, 2010 2:11 AM
http://www.bettingpro.com/category/Football/Psychic-octopus-Paul-makes-it-magnificent-seven-as-Germany-win-2010071000179/
NOW if i was a desperate sceptic stung by a reality that kicked my world view out of Soccerpark,..id also look for rationalisations to attack the enemy...here is one...Paul Picked germany to win over every team EXCEPT those beginning with S...a clear sign of fraud..
LOL
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 11, 2010 2:11 AM
blah blah blah.
fucking moron.
Posted by: foresight
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July 11, 2010 2:50 AM
'blah blah blah.
fucking moron.'
thats very intelligent if you Icky!Youre a credit to science
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 11, 2010 3:06 AM
Youre a credit to science
and you're a credit to psychics.
Posted by: desertfroglet
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July 11, 2010 3:16 AM
I think you mean psychos.
Has the octopus's random selection of World Cup winner had any effect on the odds offered by the bookmakers in Germany?
taps side of nose
Posted by: makyui
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July 11, 2010 3:28 AM
Aww... Foresight's afraid to answer my questions. Maybe he should ask Paul for the answers.
I rolled a 20-sided die three times and got three natural ones in a row. (Yeah, I know. It hurt, too.) Paul's odds are 1 in 64, but mine were 1 in 8000.
Clearly, that means my DM has telekinetic powers and manipulated my die with his mind.
Posted by: Rutee, Shrieking Harpy of Dooooom
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July 11, 2010 4:41 AM
Posted by: foresight
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July 11, 2010 4:47 AM
froggy:'Has the octopus's random selection of World Cup winner had any effect on the odds offered by the bookmakers in Germany? '
theres no randomness in this froggy...or he'd have some losses
makyul:
'I rolled a 20-sided die three times and got three natural ones in a row. (Yeah, I know. It hurt, too.) Paul's odds are 1 in 64, but mine were 1 in 8000.'
that puts you on alevel with mani the parakeet...ie evidence free
and Paul did not role dice...he chose from two boxes...the former is chance...the latter is choice...
Posted by: John Morales
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July 11, 2010 5:19 AM
foresight:
It would not surprise me if your writing is indicative of your thought process.
Presumably the ellipses indicate mental lacunae.
Posted by: Dania
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July 11, 2010 5:20 AM
Oh, FFS. The joke is that Paul has precognition powers, not that he has guessed correctly the results of 7 games so far.
(Why do I get this feeling that I'm arguing with a Poe?)
Really? You really think Paul is conscientiously choosing the winner of the game? That he knows what a soccer game is? That he knows what those flags stand for? Answer makyui's questions. Or fuck off.
(And the next person who disses Mani the Infallible Parakeet will have rotten tomatoes thrown at them. Just so you know. ;P)
Posted by: Dania
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July 11, 2010 5:25 AM
You mean "game", not "tournament".
Posted by: cosmicshore
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July 11, 2010 1:03 PM
This woman is more lucky than Paul, and she isn't called a psychic. Also, if Paul's luck was so astronomical, then what are the odds of something fishy going off?
Posted by: cosmicshore
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July 11, 2010 1:06 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/7873950/American-woman-wins-lottery-for-a-fourth-time.html
Posted by: rashomon
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July 11, 2010 1:21 PM
Me thinks you are taking this too seriously. Yeah, no kidding a cephalopod can't really predict the future. But these lucky guesses are rather enjoyable nonetheless. Why not let it ride rather than be a stick in the mud?
Posted by: foresight
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July 11, 2010 2:50 PM
desperation:
http://kandabatata.wordpress.com/2010/07/08/skeptics-urge-spain-to-lose-the-world-cup-final/
dania...keep your shirt on and your mouth clean:
'Really? You really think Paul is conscientiously choosing the winner of the game? That he knows what a soccer game is? That he knows what those flags stand for? Answer makyui's questions. Or fuck off.'
Thats desperate language.
Posted by: Walton, Marquis of Carabas
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July 11, 2010 3:03 PM
Oh, fuck off. On Pharyngula, people can use as much profanity as they see fit. If you're offended by four-letter words, go play on a different website.
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 11, 2010 3:11 PM
Yawn, more worthless babble by the bobble head. Still no fully controlled experimental protocol, like Randi would set up, to truly see if Paul is the real deal, or an artifact of training and subtle clues. Until then, nothing cogent is being said...
Posted by: Janine, The Little Top Of Venom, OM
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July 11, 2010 3:18 PM
Damn! Making Walton swear!
I like it!
Posted by: foresight
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July 11, 2010 3:21 PM
Walt,...such abusive language shows the inherent irrationality of the socalled 'rational' sceptics such as yourself, when your bloated dogma is confronted by an event that undermines it and exposes its fraudulent nature
Posted by: Janine, The Little Top Of Venom, OM
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July 11, 2010 3:32 PM
Foresight, please explain to us more about the magical nature of swear words, how they are able destroy rational thought.
Oh, and here is a rational question for you; why would a psychic creature give a flying fuck about something as trivial as The World Cup.
I think it has something to do with the food.
Of all the things that the psychic realm has to tell us, and it is about football. How bloody fucking useful.
Posted by: Dania
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July 11, 2010 3:33 PM
Well, if you're going to ascribe an emotion to my "fuck off" I would suggest contempt instead of desperation. It's more accurate. I don't get desperate every time something very improbable happens. I have more to worry about.
And now excuse me, I have the second half of a World Cup final to watch...
Posted by: Janine, The Little Top Of Venom, OM
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July 11, 2010 3:37 PM
Dania, too bad you cannot get the JW couple and foresight to met and discuss their differences.
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 11, 2010 3:37 PM
Oohh, a useless tone troll on top of being a woo-filled evidenceless bobble head. Will the Poe ever end...?
Posted by: foresight
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July 11, 2010 4:25 PM
its nice to see the irrational behaviour/ of the ratina dogmatists
Posted by: foresight
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July 11, 2010 5:28 PM
SPAIN WINS./.AND CONFIRMS PAULS PREDICTIVE GENIUS,..
Posted by: cosmicshore
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July 11, 2010 5:34 PM
Foresight, it only confirms your own beliefs. What do you think Paul is then? :-)
Posted by: Janine, The Little Top Of Venom, OM
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July 11, 2010 5:34 PM
What a sad little life you must live. And not much going for you intellectually either.
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 11, 2010 5:43 PM
Yawn, not real evidence foresight. Which you would have the foresight to know if you had any skeptical/scientific training. Nothing there until shown with properly controlled studies. As any magician will tell you, he could replicate the success of Paul with proper training...
Posted by: Dania
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July 11, 2010 5:48 PM
You're pathetic, foresight. Really, you're not even a good chew toy anymore. Just boring.
Posted by: 'Tis Himself, Quel Dommage
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July 11, 2010 5:49 PM
foresight #303
The Pharyngula regulars do not have a problem with coarse language. It's used with some frequency and carries no intellectual or emotional stigma with it. Use of naughty words does have the advantage of exposing the prudishness of those who whine about it. These people are known as "tone trolls" and are scorned by the regulars.
Or as Walton put it so well: "Oh, fuck off."
Posted by: Andy
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July 11, 2010 8:25 PM
While everyone here's been babbling away to glory ... Paul got it right again and Spain won.
The universe cannot be explained, nor can evolution (darwinism or creationisim?)... but the universe exists and so do we. Mankind is a product of evolution yet cannot explain evolution itself... but can we deny our own existence just because we cannot understand how it happened.
There are a zillion things that cannot be understood under the sky and beyond... live with it!
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 11, 2010 8:33 PM
There are a zillion things that cannot be understood under the sky and beyond...
that you clowns think an octopus trained to select a box is one of them speaks ill of humankind.
Posted by: foresight
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July 12, 2010 3:04 AM
Icky....Paul was never trained....and youd still not explain away his getting 8 out of 8 predictions right...
SO:
Hamlet:
And therefore as a stranger give it welcome.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Hamlet Act 1, scene 5, 159–167
Horatio, a model of rationality, is still having a hard time swallowing the whole business. Ghosts are not the sort of beings his "philosophy" easily takes into account. We know that Horatio is, like Hamlet, a student at the University of Wittenberg, a notable outpost of Protestant humanism. The philosophy he studies there is probably classical—a compound of ethics, logic, and natural science. The emphasis on everyday phenomena pretty much excludes speculation about talking ghosts.
http://www.enotes.com/shakespeare-quotes/there-more-things-heaven-earth-horatio
Posted by: foresight
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July 12, 2010 3:10 AM
nerd:
'As any magician will tell you, he could replicate the success of Paul with proper training...'
well nerd...lets see you do it....That can be your homework.....train an octopus...or even a simian(not as clever) to [pick winning teams in a football competition...and do it at least 8 times...
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 12, 2010 3:22 AM
Paul was never trained
of course not.
neither were you.
Posted by: makyui
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July 12, 2010 4:57 AM
And you're deliberately dodging my questions.
Round and round you go! The answers you don't know!
Actually, you DO know, but refuse to acknowledge it, because it'll only show what a fairy tale you've willingly fallen into.
Posted by: makyui
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July 12, 2010 5:01 AM
Also:
He's had two losses. So much for the infallible Paul.
Actually, those were two WINS. See, he's picking the losers, not the winners. Prove me wrong.
Posted by: John Morales
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July 12, 2010 5:16 AM
So, I come across this really annoying headline whilst browsing the news:
Expert won't rule out Octopus Paul's psychic ability (by Amy Simmons)
Here's the (emphasised) first paragraph of the story:
Of course, the expert says nothing of the kind at all, when you read the piece. He's speaking as a scientist.
Good article, shocking headline and first paragraph. I wonder if some sub-editor decided to spice it up, leaving Amy to cop the blame?
Posted by: Andyo
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July 12, 2010 5:52 AM
OK let's back up a bit. Disregarding all the probability calculations, which even at 8 for 8 still make it likely that some animal somewhere would "predict" the fucking thing, if enough dumbasses were paying attention, has anyone ever made sure that the octopus's predictions are the only ones he's made for every match?
Maybe this has been answered before, but it's the first and most obvious question anyone should have asked, and I haven't seen anyone who "believes" asking it.
Posted by: John Morales
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July 12, 2010 6:01 AM
Not quite applicable, but it brings to mind the Texas sharpshooter fallacy.
Posted by: Andyo
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July 12, 2010 6:16 AM
It amazes me how people are willing to believe something astoundingly improbable or even impossible as per what we do know (a.k.a. science), which may not be everything, but it is still a fucking huge lot, but not willing to believe that something far simpler and commonplace could take place, like just plain cheating and lying by the handlers, or just plain coincidence. Or the sharpshooter fallacy (willingly or unwillingly).
I don't know the particulars, but as someone else posted above, did the octopus actually miss two? All I hear is how he is 8/8 and such bullshit.
Posted by: Dania
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July 12, 2010 6:25 AM
He missed 2 out of 6 in Euro 2008 (the 2 games Germany lost, because in Euro 2008 he picked Germany every time). Which means he's older than he should be...
Posted by: Kel, The Privileged View From Nowhere
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July 12, 2010 6:28 AM
Dude, it was 1 out of 2 chance each time. The sequence looks improbable as larger numbers would tend towards a regression to the mean, but 8 out of 8 is hardly difficult to explain. When I used to do trivia, they had a coin flip where the people would have to guess heads or tails. Last one standing would get free beer. One week: 8 heads in a row. The next week: 9 tails in a row.Now are either of those results indicative that coin-flips cannot be explained simply by random events? Yes it does seem improbable to have long chains of events, but only because we are looking at a very small subset of data.
Don't you understand elementary probability?
Posted by: Andyo
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July 12, 2010 6:29 AM
Ha ha, that's rich. What about a DNA test then. Wonder how much money the octopus people have made.
Posted by: Andyo
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July 12, 2010 6:34 AM
For the first few games though, the possible outcomes were 3 (with ties). Since the octopus apparently was already well known since before the World Cup started, I'm more inclined to call foul play by its people, than chance.
Posted by: Dania
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July 12, 2010 6:49 AM
I think chance could explain his results just fine, what I find odd is that the octopus has picked the German flag 11 out of 14 times. And the other three times he picked a flag which would look very similar to Germany's, at least to his colorblind eyes (and in one of those three times there was no German flag in any of the boxes for Paul to pick).
Could be chance, but this really makes me suspect there's something else going on.
Posted by: Andyo
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July 12, 2010 7:02 AM
Yeah, the lack of rigorous control (or any at all) makes it much more likely to me for it not to be chance, or at least most of it.
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 12, 2010 7:21 AM
Foresight, you don't tell me what to do. I used to teach. And I am teaching you how to do things properly. Either show me the tight experimental controls, or the only logical conclusion is some type of fakery is going on, like with Clever Hans. Those tight controls are what prove otherwise. Only losers like you believers in the paranormal keep yapping about uncontrolled experiments being worth anything. Why are you afraid to have Randi look at Paul? Maybe, Paul, like all others who have accepted Randi's challenge, would be proved to be a fake who couldn't get past pure chance in tightly controlled experiments? What are you afraid of? Bawk Bawk Bawk...Posted by: Dania
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July 12, 2010 7:23 AM
A possible way to test if Paul is actively choosing or not: Make him pick more than once for the same game. If it's just chance he will eventually make different picks for the same match. If he's actively choosing he will pick the same box consistently.
A possible way to test if he's trained or psychic: Make him pick games where Germany (or countries with a similar flag) are not playing. Not just a bunch of games obviously. Hell, forget this kind of competition, forget flags and countries. Bundesliga. Lot's of games and Paul would likely still be alive. If he's so good at predicting soccer games I expect him to get all those games right. (Maybe it would be necessary to find a way for him to predict ties.)
I doubt his keepers would want to test him, though. But it could be done.
Posted by: foresight
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July 12, 2010 9:33 AM
'Only losers like you believers in the paranormal keep yapping about uncontrolled experiments being worth anything. Why are you afraid to have Randi look at Paul?'
he paranormal is real...only losers deny that it is...
randi is no honest scientist but a dishonest professional charlatan, whom dishonest 'scientists' like to cavort with....you know a person by the friends he keeps..None of you have the slightest interest in the paranormal as shown by your behaviour toward Paul the Octopuxs and his defenders.
daniaspeak:
'A possible way to test if Paul is actively choosing or not: Make him pick more than once for the same game. If it's just chance he will eventually make different picks for the same match. If he's actively choosing he will pick the same box consistently.'
Why test paul, as your a sceptic and have no interest in disinterested research let alone an investigation of the paranornmal...
Thats the CSICOP attitude...LOOK like a scientist while not being one
Posted by: Rev. BigDumbChimp
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July 12, 2010 9:40 AM
Sure it's a possibility that Paul is psychic.
However in the history of man and cephalopod not one single individual has ever been proven to be psychic.
So barring any actual evidence, I'm sticking with the coincidence, luck and or trained options.
Posted by: Andyo
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July 12, 2010 9:45 AM
You forgot blatant cheating/lying.
And seriously, it doesn't seem to me worth it to engage with foresight. Either s/he's a Poe waaay past its expiration date, or s/he's that thick.
Posted by: Dania
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July 12, 2010 9:55 AM
I do, in fact, have interest in disinterested research and investigation of the paranormal, and I would like to test Paul in a controlled environment in the ways I outlined above (with perhaps some adjustments). It would actually be really cool if Paul had precognition abilities, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and we don't have extraordinary evidence at this moment. So, yes, I remain skeptical.
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 12, 2010 9:58 AM
Fixed it for you loser. Still afraid of tightly controlled trials. That tells me all I need to know about your lack of veracity.Sorry loser, I am a scientist. Been practicing for 30+ years. And I know bullshit like you are spouting quite well. Why are you afraid of real controlled testing? Maybe you know Paul will fail like all his predecessors? What are you afraid of chickenshit?Posted by: Dania
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July 12, 2010 10:00 AM
The only cheating that can be going on is that Paul was trained to pick Germany's flag or is somehow induced to do so. Paul's picks are broadcast worldwide before the game and his keepers don't know what the outcome of the game will be.
Posted by: Andyo
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July 12, 2010 10:43 AM
Yeah, but they as anybody else who keeps up, knows the odds. There could be a number of cheats there, like Paul choosing a couple of times, and only broadcasting the picks the keepers like.
Posted by: Dania
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July 12, 2010 11:03 AM
Ah, I hadn't thought about that. :)
I think that from the quarter-finals on it was broadcast live, though. And then there's that game with Serbia during the group stage... No one would have picked Serbia, that was unthinkable. But Paul did and got it right. That part at least had to be sheer luck, IMO.
But, yeah, could have happened in some of the other games.
Posted by: Andyo
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July 12, 2010 11:54 AM
Well, I haven't followed the octopus, never thought it could become "serious" as it is now with idiot journalists (mis)quoting experts. So, I guess the keepers wouldn't have picked Serbia.
Oh, fuck it. Octopus is psychic after all.
Posted by: rashomon
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July 12, 2010 12:05 PM
As I read the comments I don't know which is more alarming; The folks who think Paul the Octopus really is psychic or the super serious science types who seem to be working overtime to prove that he isn't.
I mean, I never thought an Octopus sideshow 'predicting' soccer games could be a point of contention. It's like reading a script to a comedy TV show where all the participants think they are in a drama. [Yeah, I'm laughing at some of you, sorry].
Posted by: Dania
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July 12, 2010 12:17 PM
No kidding. I started paying attention to the octopus during the last-16 round, I think. There was this zoo in Germany who had various animals picking the winners of Germany's games and there was this famous octopus who was the luckiest one. Cool, that's a funny idea, if people can make their guesses why not play a bit with the animals too, I thought... Never thought it would get more serious than that.
Oh well... feels like I'm in Bizarro World, actually. I mean, what the hell is wrong with some people?
Posted by: Rev. BigDumbChimp
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July 12, 2010 12:27 PM
You're new here huh?
Posted by: Don Quijote
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July 12, 2010 1:05 PM
Dogmatic? Me? I admit that I was lax in my use of English. I should have said something like "I think" or "it seems to me" I THINK it was clear what Mr Myers was saying but if I was wrong and he lets me know, I will glady change my mind. Sometimes, one can deduce a meaning from a statement by the context in which it is written. It is, of course, possible to be wrong.
By the way, it´s lucky the octopus didn´t live here in Galicia. Pulpo is a delicacy here and it would have been eaten long before the World Cup began. anyway, with or without the octopus
WE WON
Posted by: Rodney
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July 12, 2010 3:33 PM
Read on another site this morning that Paul was picking the flag with a preponderance of yellow. Sorry, I don't recall the site. Would this make sense with regard to his color vision?
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 12, 2010 3:36 PM
no. they don't see in color.
however, there might be an issue wrt to contrast and brightness.
scroll upthread to see the link I left to Hanlon's paper on the subject, and/or PZ's review of it.
Posted by: Rodney
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July 12, 2010 3:40 PM
Thank You. Missed the link re color and will check it now.
Posted by: Andyo
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July 12, 2010 4:00 PM
Do you remember when we were chasing the Germans, and we were punched through the windscreen, but then we fell under that lorry but climbed up onto it and beat the driver up?Posted by: foresight
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July 12, 2010 6:40 PM
Paul the octopus outsmarts banking's brightest quants
Quants at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Danske Bank and UBS who tried to predict the outcome of the football World Cup have been comprehensively outperformed by German TV sensation, Paul the psychic octopus.
related
Paul recorded a perfect eight out of eight for his predictions during the tournament in South Africa. He backed Germany to beat Australia, Ghana, England, Argentina and Uruguay, but lose to Serbia and Spain, who he then predicted would win the final against the Netherlands.
The oracle octopus has now retired although, according to the Daily Telegraph, a Spanish businessman has offered the Sea Life aquarium in Oberhausen EUR38,000 for him.
In contrast to Paul, the finest minds at some of the world's largest investment banks failed to predict the World Cup outcome. JP Morgan backed England to win, while Goldman Sachs, Danske Bank and UBS all opted for Brazil.
To be fair, Paul's psychic powers were only tested on a game-by-game basis, giving him a 50% chance of opening the correct mussel-filled national jar on each occasion.
It wasn't only cephalopods that got the better of the banks. Kaggle, a site that runs competitions for statisticians and data professionals, challenged its users to come up with a winning model.
etc
http://www.finextra.com/news/fullstory.aspx?newsitemid=21595
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 12, 2010 6:43 PM
Hey, Paul just retired.
I think you should ask the aquarium if you can adopt him, there, forespittle.
Posted by: foresight
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July 12, 2010 6:45 PM
'Dude, it was 1 out of 2 chance each time. The sequence looks improbable as larger numbers would tend towards a regression to the mean, but 8 out of 8 is hardly difficult to explain. When I used to do trivia, they had a coin flip where the people would have to guess heads or tails. Last one standing would get free beer. One week: 8 heads in a row. The next week: 9 tails in a row.'
---------------------------
Dude..did u predict any 8 of matches in the WC by flipping your coin? No
i didnt think so...
Posted by: Janine, The Little Top Of Venom, OM
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July 12, 2010 6:45 PM
I see the one note asshole is still blowing his tuneless butt trumpet.
Posted by: foresight
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July 12, 2010 6:49 PM
'Of course, the expert says nothing of the kind at all, when you read the piece. He's speaking as a scientist'
scientists also believe men are soulless machines...as do you.
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 12, 2010 6:49 PM
If Paul is retired, he can accept the Randi Challenge. Or be acknowledge as the scared cephalopod he is. Nothing like a true controlled test to turn psychics into witless wonders.
QFT
Posted by: Don Quijote
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July 12, 2010 6:57 PM
No. Sounds British to me. I mean, all that violence.
Posted by: 'Tis Himself, Quel Dommage
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July 12, 2010 7:04 PM
He's not a particularly interesting troll. I don't see my coat staying sniny by arguing with him.
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 12, 2010 7:10 PM
True, but it makes a nice target if one needs to "lift a leg".Posted by: foresight
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July 12, 2010 7:18 PM
One octpus bests another..
a lesson in the limits of thinking
http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2010/07/12/the-octopus-that-beat-wall-street/
Given the snide cynics keep doubting Paul the Oracle, and so called controlled test would not change their attitude.Its purpose is to undermine the public faith in him....
Posted by: CJO
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July 12, 2010 7:19 PM
It's sort of like what I always say about American football players praying and giving thanks to God all the time: If there is a God, and if he cares about football, man are we screwed.
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 12, 2010 7:28 PM
Yawn, FS still can't provide any evidence from properly controlled studies. It's almost like he knows he has nothing, but must say it anyway, which makes him look like a witling. BORING. Try something new, like real evidence from the Randi Challenge...
Posted by: Janine, The Little Top Of Venom, OM
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July 12, 2010 7:31 PM
Foresight came to the limits of his thinking and assumes everything beyond that to be magic.
When it comes to news shows, one of the favorite fillers is having animals make prediction, be it ground hogs seeing shadows of various animals eating an item that has a symbol of a sports team. This had to have been done millions of times by now. Out of all of these animal prediction stories, one, Paul, picked right a few times in a row. By use of simple stats, this was bound to happen. In order for foresight to made these claims, foresight has to ignore all of the other instances of animal predictions.
Moron.
And, yes, I toss snide comments at you. That is all you deserve.
Posted by: foresight
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July 13, 2010 10:13 AM
eat your heart out lads
'Shanghai, July 13 (Xinhua) -- Paul, the octopus who became a pop culture sensation by correctly predicting the outcome of eight World Cup matches, is becoming a darling at the ongoing Shanghai World Expo.
The International Development Information Network Association Section, one of the pavillions of Expo 2010, announced on Monday that it would offer stamps featuring the octopus "Paul" to visitors as of the final whistle of this year's World Cup.
The initiative has soon attracted a great amount of Expo fans to seek the stamp, which printed a cartoon octopus with the words "Octopus predicts the football match winner" on it.
"We plan to seal the stamp by two weeks from now on," said Shen Dan, staff of the pavillion told Xinhua.
Paul won worldwide attention as he called all of Germany's games correctly, including its semifinal defeat by Spain. He crowned his career by forecasting correctly that Spain would beat Holland in Sunday's final.'
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/culture/2010-07/13/c_13398252.htm
Posted by: foresight
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July 13, 2010 10:21 AM
yes janine:
'Foresight came to the limits of his thinking and assumes everything beyond that to be magic.'
life can be magical...but for a dull plodde like your self, there is no magic...
'When it comes to news shows, one of the favorite fillers is having animals make prediction,'
no other animal has done so...8 times in a row..nor has any human,....that i know of...Pity then to upset your dull simian world with a bit of octopus magic.
'Out of all of these animal prediction stories, one, Paul, picked right a few times in a row. By use of simple stats, this was bound to happen''
8 times...out of 8 tries...not a bad record...not 'a few'...but i see your not above twisting history to diminish an intellectual obstacle to your perfect faith.
Twain: there are lies, damn lies and statistics...LOL
Posted by: PZ Myers
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July 13, 2010 10:24 AM
I'm also getting tired of foresight, the innumerate one-note obsessed zealot.
A string of chance events is not evidence of magic powers.
Posted by: foresight
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July 13, 2010 10:36 AM
what evidence have u they were 'a string of chances'?
lets see your evidence,..not speculation
Posted by: Sven DiMilo
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July 13, 2010 10:37 AM
Pretty pricy pulpo!
Especially since poor Paul won't live a year.
Posted by: foresight
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July 13, 2010 10:42 AM
one advantage of the Paul The Octopus story, is its prised open the rigid all pervasive dogma of rationalism...and challenged it...The Church may be parst its prime, but you can always find some humorless simians wanting to put nature in to an intellectual strait jacket of its own making
Posted by: Erulóra (formerly KOPD)
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July 13, 2010 10:44 AM
Yeah, I have to agree with PZ here. I really don't see how "magic" is a more likely explanation than "chance". If it is not chance, then some further tests should reveal that. It's simple, really.
Posted by: Sven DiMilo
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July 13, 2010 10:46 AM
That's not how the whole hypothesis-testing thing works, Edgar.
'A string of chances' is the null hypothesis, assumed without evidence to the contrary.
Even 19th-Century Baltimore laudanum addicts should know that.
Posted by: foresight
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July 13, 2010 10:49 AM
KOPD,..Chance is what you get when you limit your world to what can be weighed and measured..
No its not simple...you may be ...
Does even Chance exist? or are all events determined?
Posted by: foresight
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July 13, 2010 10:51 AM
sorry sven,...but i dont deal in ivory tower vague speculation...like your null hypotheses...Just the evidence...which the whole world has now seen.
Posted by: Erulóra (formerly KOPD)
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July 13, 2010 10:54 AM
Determined by what? If you are going to posit that events are determined, you need to demonstrate that there is something doing the determining and that the something exists. Otherwise, when things behave like chance we assume they are chance until demonstrated to be determined. And [to summon Randi in a slightly different context] if there is in fact something that is going through the effort of making the universe act as if it's ruled by chance, then it's doing things the hard way.Posted by: First Approximation, L'esprit de l'escalier
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July 13, 2010 10:59 AM
Yeah, I'm going with Poe.
Posted by: Dania
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July 13, 2010 11:00 AM
I watched a quick interview with Paul's keepers today on Eurosport and they were saying he won't be making more predictions of any kind and he'll be back to doing what he's best at: entertaining children and visitors.
The way they talked... it really doesn't seem like they're interested in making loads of money from Paul (they won't sell him) or taking this very seriously. They don't seem to think he's psychic, they were smirking as they talked about Paul's success at this WC and never suggested any paranormal explanation for it. I liked to hear them. Happy and proud of their octopus but always reasonable and lighthearted.
Nothing like foresight...
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 13, 2010 11:04 AM
Sorry, you present anecdotal evidence only. Just like all the previous attempts proving the paranormal. Funny, how when actually tested under controlled conditions, like with the Randi Challenge, which not only includes scienists, but stage magicians who know how such tricks are likely to be done, everybody being tested loses their abilities. Uri Gellar can't bend spoons. A banned psychotic troll can't detect what he needed because he couldn't cheat, then claimed foul. And similar other stories.Until those controlled experiments, with protection against cheating by trainers and presentation, then you have nothing but blather. Further repeated posts on your part is not evidence. But rather your inability to understand the lack of scientific evidence for the claim. As Paul did all his work without those controls, making the experiment meaningless. What a loser you are foresight, if you can't understand that. You won't change our minds on the need for properly controlled experimental evidence. You should fade into the bandwidth.
Posted by: Dania
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July 13, 2010 11:09 AM
Yeah. Calling the null-hypothesis "vague speculation" is a bit too much.
Posted by: Erulóra (formerly KOPD)
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July 13, 2010 11:09 AM
I don't understand poes. What's the point? What's the fun of acting like an idiot if you aren't actually an idiot? And it requires lies and deception. I guess it's the thrill of manipulating people by getting them to react to you - a kind of desperate attention-seeking ploy from people who would otherwise be ignored. But it doesn't prove anything. Demonstrating that people react when provoked is hardly useful or anything to be proud of. Do these people also throw rocks at hornet nests and feel like a god when it provokes the response they sought?Posted by: John Morales
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July 13, 2010 6:57 PM
KOPD,
Meh. "de gustibus non est disputandum".
Still, I stand by my #239.
Posted by: foresight
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July 13, 2010 7:09 PM
dania...it doesnt matter what the educated adults at the acquarium think, or you or me...Paul has chosen...each will think as he will according to his/her upbringing. This experiment as rattled some cages...
anecdotal evidence is what happens to people freen of any human control...In contrast,controlled experiments try to control the outcome...
Anecdotal evidence is what launches 'controlled' experiments...without them, what is there to investigate? To mock anecdotes is arrogance..and...
'But rather your inability to understand the lack of scientific evidence for the claim'
scientific in bold case? Your problem is you cant control real world events. This smacks of RC style Dogmatism: recall Galileo, the bishops and his telescope...?. The idea is to control perceptions of Reality by the public, since Reality cant be controlled. What ever does that word mean...esp given science poor track record...
This story has helped to show the mob fear nature of the Randi mob: fear of the unusual, desire to control it to make it go away, saving the appearances not to mention some really BLUE language!
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 13, 2010 7:12 PM
LOL
you're STILL here?
that's either really pathetic or...
no, wait, that's just really pathetic.
Posted by: Nerd of Redhead, OM
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July 13, 2010 7:13 PM
Yawn,
foresightheaduphisass is boring, boring, scientifically evidenceless troll. Time for the banhammer PZ.Posted by: Dania
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July 13, 2010 7:19 PM
*headdesk* *headdesk* *headdesk*
If anyone wants to keep talking to the troll, good luck. I think I'm done. Too painful.
Posted by: CJO
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July 13, 2010 7:20 PM
Yeh, yeah. They laughed at Galileo. They also laughed at foresight the
ClownPoePosted by: Andyo
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July 13, 2010 8:11 PM
Forget the stupid octopus. I hear 63-year-old college professors are psychic-er.
Posted by: foresight
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July 14, 2010 12:02 AM
notice how the simians, mainly, are a vicious splenetic species compared to the Olympian calm of Paul the Octopus...
The professor was also a better class of critter than most of her species.
but both suffer under the oppressice rule of the statistician...to paraphrase Twain:
'There are liars damn liars and statisticians'
Posted by: Ichthyic
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July 14, 2010 12:08 AM
why, I think it's time for foresight to start his own Paul the Octopus Blog!
Posted by: First Approximation, L'esprit de l'escalier
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July 14, 2010 4:38 AM
Will Kw*k manage to get banned from there too?
Posted by: Silič O'Nopolitanopoulos, Färschdbischuf Beesknees aus Ulm und Klein Elguth, Elector Pharynguline.
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July 14, 2010 5:06 AM
Well, if Paul has any kind of foresight (or hindsight for that matter), Kw*******k will come pre-banned.Posted by: BC
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July 20, 2010 8:45 PM
This is ridiculous. Paul isn't an exceptional cephalopod. All octopi are precognitive.
Bugsy is predicting the Australian federal election:
http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/ns_asia/2010-07-20/561965257752.html
Posted by: «bønez_brigade»
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October 29, 2010 12:35 AM
Paul the Psychic Octopus lives no more:
http://wildcat.arizona.edu/news/world-cup-octopus-dies-1.1729673