Journalist Robert Eshelman is blogging from Copenhagen throughout the UN Climate Conference and offers this cogent observation:
If there’s going to be an agreement, it will come down mostly to money. The E.U. might offer more money and the U.S. might provide a counteroffer. There might be some movement on emissions targets from the E.U. but with the Senate’s recent reduction of its emissions target, the door seems to be closed on Obama offering greater cuts. Offers of financing, particularly around addressing deforestation, might woo a number of developing and poor countries and secure their commitment for a deal. The poor and low-lying countries demands for funding and 1.5 degree Celsius will remain unmet. After all, this summit is about politics and the G77 nations (which actually represents 130 nations), while putting forward the strongest proposals and the most compelling testimony about what is a stake, lack the political muscle, at the moment, to shift the frame. The international climate justice movement will have to do the heavy lifting on that problem.