Retrospectacle: A Neuroscience Blog

Can Hillary Win in 2008?

Hillary Clinton is a smart, capable politician. Yet, she also is the cause for quite a bit of division. There’s not a lot of people who are lukewarm on Mrs. Clinton, most people either love her or hate her. She’s got the positive connotations from her husband’s presidency on her side, yet that comes with baggage as well. She’s says she’s in it to win, but America might not be ready for Hillary. Either way, Hillary Clinton will have made history, as this is the closest any woman will have gotten to being President. I give her much kudos for her guts and determination.

So how’s she doing next to Obama, another popular candidate, and Edwards?

A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Sunday shows Clinton is the favorite of 41 percent of Democrats, more than double the support of any of her rivals.

Despite abundant strengths, Clinton remains a polarizing figure to many voters and faces questions about her ability to win a general election. Her position on the Iraq war — she voted to authorize the invasion in 2002 and has refused to call for a date-certain removal of troops — has alienated many Democratic activists, who vote heavily in primaries.

For the dish on political surveys, I usually haunt Polling Point as the polls and results are often open to the public. It certainly looks like Hillary’s camp utilized their services and based her Presidential wager on this survey, or one somewhat like it.

If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?”

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Comments

  1. #1 coturnix
    January 22, 2007

    Check the comments to this post.

    I have never seen such exorbitant numbers anywhere and I’ve been watching polls for a while now in detail. What kind of poll do they come from?

    Anyway, national polling of whoever is a test of familiarity. Who matters are activists in Iowa (also Nevada, NH and SC) who move people to their camp during caucuses – and they are most strongly NOT for Hillary.

  2. #2 Shelley Batts
    January 22, 2007

    Coturnix, the link to the poll is in the post. Click it and it takes you to 10+ polls done on the topic by multiple sources (Washington Post, Gallup, etc), all the results are about the same. Polling Point does random call surveys and voluntary online surveys.

    National polling may be a test of familiarity. But what do you think voting is in this country?

  3. #3 coturnix
    January 22, 2007

    She’ll never make it out of Iowa so we’ll never know.

  4. #4 Shelley Batts
    January 22, 2007

    I guess we’ll see, won’t we. :P

  5. #5 bob koepp
    January 22, 2007

    At this early stage in the process, “name recognition” rules — for some reason, people will cast their lot with a known negative rather than an unknown.

    BTW, voting in this country is how we participate in the oldest scam in history. The Romans used bread and circuses to prevent unrest among the masses. We’re much more sophisticated now — we have circuses called “elections” that reinforce the illusion among the masses that they have some influence over who abuses them and how they are abused.

  6. #6 Shelley Batts
    January 22, 2007

    I agree, bob, that a lot can happen in 2 years. Dark horses pull ahead, favorites fall behind. The candidates have a long road ahead, and a long time to prove themselves. However, polls influence what politicians do and the decisions they make (ie, whether its worth the time/money to run). So in that sense, its a worthwhile means of gauging the level of interest in a candidate at a particular point in time.

  7. #7 chezjake
    January 22, 2007

    There’s little doubt that Hillary is qualified for the presidency and that she is very popular among Democratic voters. She may very well be able to win in the Democratic primaries, but can she win a national election when faced with the Republican hate machine?

    I think Democrats need to think long and hard about whether it’s more important to have a candidate they see as a “first” or one who is capable of attracting enough votes from minorities, independents and Republicans to finally rid us of the dangerous neocons currently in power. I’m from New York, but IMHO, any candidate from the northeast, Democrat or Republican, would have a very tough time winning the national election.

    Right now, I think that Bill Richardson might have the best chance of winning nationally, if he can get the media recognition that he deserves.

  8. #8 Bob Abu
    January 22, 2007

    Hillary supported the war in Iraq.

    It seems, from her comments, she wants to open a second front on Iran.

    Thatcher showed that a female leader can be just as horrible as any male leader. What is left for her to accomplish?

    Surely, no one would vote for her simply because she’s a lesbian.

  9. #9 Alon Levy
    January 23, 2007

    Four years ago, the leading Democratic Presidential hopeful was Joe Lieberman.

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